2016 Alpha Energy Solutions 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 2nd, 2:46PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
For the first time in 5 long weeks, the Camping World Truck Series will return to action this afternoon at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the Alpha Energy Solutions 250. The last time we saw the Truck Series in action was when John Hunter Nemechek shocked the field with a surprising victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Today several other hungry drivers will try to earn their first win of the season around the short half-mile paperclip. Find out who we think has what it takes to earn a trip to victory lane this afternoon as we provide our 2016 Alpha Energy Solutions 250 race picks!
Headlining today’s field will be Sprint Cup Series drivers Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. It is not necessarily surprising to see either Busch or Larson in today’s field with the Sprint Cup Series also being stationed in Martinsville for Sunday’s STP 500. Both drivers regularly participate in NASCAR’s lower series. However, this will be just the 11th career start for Larson in the Truck Series as most of his lower tier starts have been a product of the Xfinity Series. In 10 career starts, Larson has 1 victory along with 3 runner-up finishes to his credit. Busch on the other hand has been a regular at times in the Truck Series and will be making his 130th start this afternoon.
Busch holds 44 victories in the series and has been extremely dominate in recent years winning 14 of his last 25 starts over the last 3 seasons. Today, Busch will look to earn his first victory at Martinsville Speedway in the Truck Series. Despite two runner-up finishes in his last two Martinsville starts, Busch is 0 for 8 at the half-mile paperclip making it the only track in the Truck Series where he has failed to win with at least 3 starts. Obviously, Busch’s chances will be good today as he is the best driver in the field and also has a pretty fast #18 truck. However, Busch is receiving nearly even odds as the race’s overall and overwhelming favorite. At such low odds, it nearly presents a strategy to either bet on Busch solely or look for the best value in the drivers behind him. Due to Martinsville unpredictable nature, importance emphasis of track position, close racing action, and more, I personally believe there is more value in the drivers behind Busch if the #18 is unable to seal the victory again this afternoon
If you look at the rest of the field, there are some worthy competitors that could easily dethrone Busch this afternoon. Kyle Larson and Cole Custer both looked really good in practices on Friday. Both drivers have some strong short track racing credentials on their resume and I would consider Custer a short track specialist throughout his young career with the Truck Series. A similar argument could be made for John Hunter Nemechek who has the majority of his experience on the short tracks in this series. Nemechek posted a runner-up finish at Martinsville last fall in the Kroger 200 and I believe he has a lot of potential again this afternoon. The guy that Nemechek finished behind last fall should also receive a lot of attention this afternoon in the #88 of Matt Crafton. Crafton has won 2 of the last 4 races at Martinsville and has only finished worse than 4th once in the last 7 starts. Therefore as you can see, I believe there is plenty of talent to contend with Busch this afternoon in what I expect to be a really exciting race.
Obviously, I believe the 4-5 drivers mentioned above have the best opportunity to win this afternoon. However, if you are looking for an even bigger long shot or a driver to possibly hold some sleeper value in h2h matchups, consider the #29 of Tyler Reddick. Reddick has posted finishes of 6th, 5th, and 5th in his last 3 starts at Martinsville. The young driver has had some impressive runs on the short tracks in this series and he was pretty decent throughout Friday’s practices. I don’t think the #29 truck is getting hardly any of the attention that they deserve and that could be great for value if you can find Reddick is some lower tier matchups.
2016 Alpha Energy Solutions 250 Race Picks
Cole Custer +750 (1.5 units): short track specialist, fastest 10 lap average in practice 2, has more starts at Martinsville than any other track including a 4th place finish last fall
Kyle Larson +800 (1 unit): 2nd fastest 10 lap average in final practice, fully expect the #24 to contend this afternoon
H2H Matchups
Kyle Busch +100 wins Alpha Energy Solutions 250
Slot 2 – Open for STP 500
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Ben Kennedy +100 over Cameron Hayley (2 units)
