2016 AAA 500 Race Predictions

2016 AAA 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 6th, 2:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Sprint Cup Series will conclude a 3 day race weekend in the Lone Star State on Sunday with the running of the AAA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Both the Camping World Truck and Xfinity Series’ participated in exciting races on Friday and Saturday. Today the Sprint Cup Series will get their opportunity to shine on the 1.5 mile surface at Texas as the Chase for the Sprint Cup inches closer to the championship finale at Homestead. Last week Jimmie Johnson earned his automatic bid to Homestead with a win at Martinsville and will get an opportunity at that paramount 7th championship that would tie the likes of Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. Today we find out if another driver can seal their bid to Homestead or if a non-Chase driver can steal the checkered flag. Check out our expectations as we provide our 2016 AAA 500 race predictions!

One thing that bettors should know immediately is that even though Johnson has already earned his bid to Homestead, he is still a big threat to win this afternoon as well. Johnson owns 6 Texas Motor Speedway victories which is double the amount of any other active drivers. Carl Edwards is 2nd among active drivers with 3 Texas victories. However, Johnson and the #48 team are in one of those “can’t lose” situations and they can strategically call this race specifically for the purpose of getting another victory. This #48 team has been streaking with a win at Charlotte, which is nearly identical to Texas, just a few weeks ago. Therefore, Johnson will be one of today’s big favorites as they are primed for another strong showing.

Outside of the #48 team, fire up the opportunities for the JGR brigade. Not only has JGR been dominate on the 1.5 mile tracks this season but their drivers have had incredible success at Texas. Every JGR driver has multiple wins and as stated before Edwards is 2nd among active drivers with 3 victories. Edwards actually has some serious upside given his potential must-win scenario and the fact the #19 car has been really fast through the weekend. Edwards has been the best of the JGR group throughout the weekend but Kyle Busch has made significant improvements since going to a backup car following a wreck in the first practice on Friday. Busch’s team has struggled with problems since they unloaded but they have appeared to have weathered the storm to find solid speed for the defending champion. Since we are talking about the JGR cars, let’s not forget Martin Truex’s dominance on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year. The #78 has the JGR alliance from equipment and laid down some really fast laps in Saturday’s practices so expect him to move forward from his 12th place starting position.

While many people will be looking for the winner to come from the JGR cars, I have my eye on the Team Penske cars of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. If you go back to the end of August, nobody has been more consistent than the #2 team with finishes of 7th or better in 9 of the last 13 races. This team is very close to getting another victory because they are bringing fast cars every week and they are making them better during the race which is kudos to Paul Wolfe atop the box. Teammate Joey Logano had the best practices of any driver on Saturday. The #22 car was 4th in final practice and also 4th fastest in 10 lap averages. I will point out the fact that Logano was extremely impressive after the 10 lap mark as well as he showed the least amount of falloff out of all competitors. The only driver that was in the ballpark of the #22 in terms of long run speed was the #4 of Kevin Harvick. However, Harvick was much slower from takeoff and will likely need really long green flag runs to get the best return on their speed.

If you are looking for a few other long shots, good luck. The field seemed pretty stacked among the top guys. However, there were a few guys that caught my attention for different reasons. Chase Elliott appeared to have the speed to contend with the leaders. The rookie had a 5th place finish in his first Texas race in the spring and he should be a good choice for a dark horse on Sunday. Kasey Kahne is a guy that I will be looking forward to in H2H situations. Kahne had a pretty awful qualifying effort on Friday finishing 31st but the #5 car looked really solid in race trim in both of Saturday’s practices. Therefore, I feel the #5 will have a lot of value based on his starting position. Also even though he will be starting from the pole, Austin Dillon has shown a lot of speed throughout the weekend as well. I would not consider any of the RCR cars capable of a victory but Dillon has often backed up strong qualifying efforts with solid finishes. Therefore, keep an eye for any favorable matchups for the driver of the #3 car if you can fit him into your lineup.

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2016 AAA 500 Race Predictions

Brad Keselowski +750 (1.25 unit): two wins on 1.5 mile tracks this season, 3 top 5 finishes in last 4 Texas starts including runner-up in this race last year
Joey Logano +950 (1.25 units): 2014 winner, top 5 finishes in 5 of last 7 starts at Texas, really good speed in race trim
Carl Edwards +1250 (1 unit): 3-time Texas winner, 2nd fastest 10 lap average in practice 2, desperately needs a victory

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Jimmie Johnson +312 wins AAA 500
Kasey Kahne -115 over Kurt Busch
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1005

H2H Matchups and Props

Chris Buescher -115 over Brian Scott (2 units)
Chase Elliott +100 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -130 over Paul Menard (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -125 finishes Top 5 (2 units)
Austin Dillon +750 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Kasey Kahne +1900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +245 wins Group C (Newman, McMurray, Stewart, Biffle) (2 units)
Ryan Newman +330 wins Group C (Dillon, McMurray, Stewart, Biffle) (2 units)