2016 AAA 400 Drive for Autism Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 15th, 1:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today 40 of the best drivers in the world will attempt to conquer the Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway with the running of the AAA 400 Drive for Autism. We have already seen a surprising number of incidents this weekend just in practices at the Monster Mile and several drivers have already resorted to backup machines. Imagine what will happen today when we throw 400 grueling laps into the mix while raising the stakes. Needless to say, it should be a fun afternoon of racing and we take this time to provide our 2016 AAA Drive for Autism race predictions!
One current trend that has been consistent at Dover International Speedway over the last several years is the success from the Chevrolet drivers. Chevrolet cars have won the last 6 straight races at Dover and 10 of the last 14. Obviously Jimmie Johnson has been a big factor in that equation as he has won 6 of those races during that 14 race stretch and has the most all-time victories at Dover with 10 total. However, Chevrolet drivers have run really well here in addition to Johnson’s success. If you consider how dominate the Toyota’s have been this season specifically from the Joe Gibbs Racing stable, it will be interesting to see if a Chevrolet driver can find their way back to victory lane again today.
If a Chevrolet driver is going to stop the JGR brigade this afternoon, I believe Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick will have the best chance to accomplish the feat. Johnson nearly owns every record imaginable at Dover and has led nearly 3,000 laps during his career. Harvick scored his first Dover win last fall and it has been pretty obvious that the #4 team has picked up some momentum in recent weeks. They were knocking on the door for a victory in Kansas last week and they are starting to look like the team they were from 2014-2015. Harvick posted the fastest 10 lap average in final practice and he has been strong throughout all sessions this weekend. If you throw in the fact that he is driving the same car that he went to victory lane with last fall, I think he is a serious threat for the win.
Outside of those two Chevrolet hopefuls, I believe the JGR team and alliance with Martin Truex Jr will be tough to beat. Carl Edwards has a pretty solid Dover resume with the 3rd best average finishing position along with a 2007 win. Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth each share two wins and who could argue with how strong the #18 has been in recent weeks? Martin Truex Jr scored his first career victory at Dover back in 2007 as well. If you consider how dominate the #78 car was last week only to have another stroke of bad luck, then you know that team is hungry to get another shot at a win.
Even though Hamlin is the only driver in the group without a Dover win, he did post the fastest lap in Happy Hour and was the 3rd best car in 10 lap averages. However, all the JGR affiliated cars were strong in practices and combined with their recent dominance will make them the guys to beat this afternoon. From an observation standpoint, I believe the #78 and #18 cars were the best in race trim. Neither of those two cars experienced much fall off in lap speeds if you are looking for the best possible options out of the group.
As always I like to provide a few drivers that I believe will run well that can be used in H2H or fantasy purposes. I would currently put Kyle Larson at the top of that list. The #42 car has been awfully strong in recent weeks but they just have not had the finishes to show for it. Larson has never finished worse than 11th at Dover in his 4 career starts. I believe with the speed that team has found that he could have a really strong run this afternoon.
A few other guys that caught my attention in practice were the Roush-Fenway Racing teammates of Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Greg Biffle. Biffle has 2 wins at the Monster Mile and there was a time from 2006-2009 where he was one of the best drivers at this track. Stenhouse may not have the history on his side like Biffle but he is another guy that has shown a lot of speed in recent weeks. Both drivers looked impressive throughout Saturday’s sessions so it will be interesting to see if they can stay on top of the change and keep their cars fast throughout the 400 miles later today.
2016 AAA 400 Drive for Autism Race Predictions
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Martin Truex Jr +1200 (1. 25 units): early forums pick, first career win came at Dover in 2007, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice, looking to rebound from last week’s disappointment
Kyle Larson +3000 (1 unit): early forums pick, best average finish through 4 career starts, should be strong as the race goes along and the groove widens
Two Team Parlays
Erik Jones +125 wins Ollie’s Bargain Outlet 200 (Win)
Kevin Harvick +350 wins AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Risking 1 unit to win: +915
Jimmie Johnson +600 wins AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Kyle Larson -120 over Austin Dillon
Risking 1 unit to win: +1183
H2H Matchups and Props
Greg Biffle -130 over Paul Menard (3 units)
Carl Edwards -120 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Chase Elliott +125 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +100 over Ryan Blaney (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +345 wins Group B (Kenseth, Logano, Ku Busch, Keselowski)
Kyle Larson +345 wins Group C (Kahne, Newman, Dillon, and McMurray)
Chase Elliott +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kyle Larson +515 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
