2015 Windows 10 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 2nd, 1:46PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes their 2nd stop at Pocono Raceway with the running of the Windows 10 400. Back in June, Martin Truex Jr dominated the Axalta 400 by leading 97 of the 160 laps to score the win over Kevin Harvick. The victory ended Hendrick Motorsports streak of 5 straight victories at Pocono but at the same time it continued a streak for Chevrolet manufacturer wins to 6 straight. However the talk going into today’s race surrounds the strength of the Toyota’s from Joe Gibbs Racing. Will the Chevrolet streak end today? Find out our thoughts in our 2015 Windows 10 race picks preview!
It would be hard to start off our preview without talking about Kyle Busch. Busch has won 3 straight races and 4 of the last 5 races going back to his first win at Sonoma. Busch is now tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most wins on the season and he has missed half the season. Of course some of the credit can be given to the gains that the Joe Gibbs Racing organization has made this season which seems to be getting even better from week to week. However, Busch is still the guy that is getting the job done and will try to become the first driver since Jimmie Johnson back in 2007 to win 4 straight races. It would seem like a long shot for Rowdy to score yet another win but let’s not take his chances lightly. Busch put the #18 car on the pole for today’s race and he was also the fastest car in final practice. Busch was really confident in his car and his chances in Saturday’s interviews which could means history could be made today for the #18 team.
So who are the guys that could end Busch’s winning streak? I think the leading candidate would have to be Kevin Harvick. Harvick has finished in the runner-up position in the last two races at Pocono and looked really strong in race trim in Saturday’s final practice. Teammate Kurt Busch was the only driver that posted a faster 10 lap average over Harvick. Busch is a former two-time Pocono winner (2005 & 2007) who has been really solid in recent trips finishing in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races. Considering the little funk that the Hendrick Motorsports drivers are in, Harvick and Busch may be the best options to keep the Chevrolet streak alive. Jimmie Johnson has been the only driver from the Chevrolet camp to look good all weekend but Dale Earnhardt Jr and the #88 team appear to have made some solid gains in their final practice.
Instead of the Chevrolet machines, I think there are a few dark horses in the Joe Gibbs Racing camp to keep your eye on that are not named Kyle Busch. The JGR cars finished in the top 4 positions in practice 2 and they all occupied the top 8 positions in final practice. The #19 of Carl Edwards may have had the strongest car outside the #18. Edwards is a two-time Pocono winner and today will easily be his best opportunity to get back to victory lane at Pocono compared to the cars he has had over the last several years. After Edwards, I think you can still make a case for both Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth to have legitimate opportunities today as well. Hamlin is probably your best bet considering he has 4 prior Pocono wins but it would not be too surprising to see any JGR machine in victory lane by the end of the afternoon.
If you are looking for a few drivers that may have some potential upside in H2H match-ups, then take a look at Kyle Larson and Dale Earnhardt Jr in mid-low tier matchups. I believe the gains the #88 team made in final practice is going to have them running better than most people expect. If you remember the #88 had a pretty strong car back in the June race but made contact with Kasey Kahne on a restart that derailed his progress. Larson is starting towards the back of the pack but he has finished no worse than 11th in his 3 career starts at Pocono. The #42 car looked pretty solid in race trim in practices and he should be paired up with mid-low tier drivers which should increase his stock in H2H action. Take a look at the rest of our 2015 Windows 10 400 race picks below:
2015 Windows 10 400 Race Picks
Kurt Busch +750 (1.5 units): two-time winner, 3 top 5’s in last 4 Pocono races, fastest 10 lap average in final practice
Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit): 4-time winner, strong in all practices, 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 2, all JGR cars look strong
Carl Edwards +1200 (1 unit): two-time winner, strong runs in recent weeks like last week at Indianapolis, needs to put finishes together, has another great car today
Jimmie Johnson +1000 (.5 unit): cover play with great odds on driver with best average finish in field, 3-time Pocono winner, finished 3rd back in June race, solid in all practices
Two-Team Parlay
Ryan Blaney +225 wins US Cellular 250 (win)
Kevin Harvick +400 wins Windowns 10 400 (pending)
Risking 1 unit to win: +1525
H2H Match-ups and Props
Denny Hamlin -125 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Ryan Newman +155 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +125 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Kyle Larson -105 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Carl Edwards +210 finishes Top 5
