2015 VFW Sport Clips Help A Hero 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 5th, 3:46PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
A throwback Labor Day weekend will kick-off this afternoon when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag on the VFW Sport Clips Help A Hero 200 at Darlington Raceway. This weekend’s races for both the Xfinity and Sprint Cup Series will feature throwback paint schemes as a salute to NASCAR’s greats of the past. However the action on the track will be about the stars of today starting this afternoon with a star studded lineup ready to battle it out on the track labeled “Too Tough To Tame.” Let’s get ready for a great afternoon of racing at the track that defines “throwback.” Take a look at our 2015 VFW Sport Clips Help a Hero 200 race picks!
Today’s lineup has one of the most talented Xfinity Series rosters thus far in 2015. With the likes of Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Paul Menard, and Kevin Harvick all entered in today’s event, it definitely lessens the chance of an Xfinity Series regular stealing a win this afternoon. However, we did see a rather surprising winner in this race one year ago when Chase Elliot shocked everyone with a win in his first Darlington start beating the likes of Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano. Obviously Elliot has not had as much success thus far in 2015 in terms of victories but he has been very consistent with quality finishes and is still alive in the championship picture. Outside of the Sprint Cup veterans, Elliot is the only Xfinity Series driver that showed any real amendable speed in Friday’s practices to potentially contend at the front of the pack. Even with that thought being said, I am not sure if the #9 has the car to win today’s race.
Instead, I think today’s race will come down to a battle between the veterans. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have stood out the most throughout practices which is pretty much the status quo for the Xfinity Series. Both Logano and Busch have Darlington wins in this series with Rowdy winning 2 of his last 3 starts. The #22 and #54 have stood out for most of the season and they were on top of the charts in final practice with Logano leading the way. However, I would give the edge to Busch if you were to square them against each other per say. The #54 has looked a tick better than the #22 and should be really good in race trim. However, both cars have winning speed and should be at the top of everyone’s betting radar.
Obviously at short odds, you will likely not be able to bet Logano and Busch. You will be able to bet one of the two and then take your chances with another driver or two dependent upon the odds. The question is who could potentially upset the Logano and Busch show? I think the best option would be Denny Hamlin. Hamlin did not look overly dominate in practices but he was rock solid. More importantly Hamlin has a great resume at Darlington featuring 3 wins in the Xfinity Series and another in the Sprint Cup Series. Hamlin actually leads all drivers on the Cup side with an average finishing position of 6.89 through his 9 career starts. In the Xfinity Series, he has finished in the top 2 positions in his last 5 starts. The #20 has proved to have winning worthy speed this year on several occasions and I think Hamlin maybe going a little under the radar today simply for the fact he was not on top of the speed charts.
Outside of Hamlin, obviously Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Paul Menard are all threats. Menard won just last week at Road America while Larson and Harvick are two of the biggest talents in the sport. The only problem is neither Larson, Menard, nor Harvick have a win at Darlington on their resume. Larson has only raced at Darlington twice but he has been just mediocre for the most part. Menard is 0 for 6 at Darlington with no real threats and surprisingly Harvick is 0 for 12 at Darlington. Harvick’s winless mark is obviously the biggest surprise of the group but even more surprising is the fact that he has posted just 1 top 5 finish in those 12 starts. With a pair of mediocre practices on Friday, I would advise staying away from the #88 who will likely be overpriced to begin with.
If you are looking for a few guys that may have some potential for a strong day or perhaps some value in H2H situations, keep in mind guys like Elliot Sadler and Ty Dillon. Dillon looked really good in practice and ran a ton of laps which should give the #3 team a good idea of where they are in terms of long green flag runs. Sadler on the other hand posted the 4th best 10 lap average in final practice. Not only has the #1 ride been running well as of late but Sadler has also posted two runner-up finishes in the last two races at Darlington. From a H2H standpoint, Sadler should be a really good horse for today’s race.
2015 VFW Sport Clips Help A Hero 200 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +500 (1.5 units): early forums pick, leads all active drivers with 3 Xfinity Series wins while finishing top 2 in last 5 Darlington starts, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice
Kyle Larson +1700 (.5 unit): small value play at great odds, decent practice times, Larson’s driving style should suit better for a slicker Darlington track than the former spring races, keep your eye on the #42 if we get long green flag runs
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +265 wins VFW Sport Clips Help a Hero 200
Slot 2 – Open for Southern 500
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Denny Hamlin -115 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)(Early Forums Pick)
Elliot Salder +120 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Kyle Larson +105 over Paul Menard (2 units)
