2015 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 28th, 3:19PM (EST) at Sonoma Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
After a rare off week last weekend, the Sprint Cup Series returns to action on Sunday with the running of the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Sunday’s Toyota Save Mart 350 marks the first road course race of the season as we leave traditional oval racing in our rear view mirror for one more week. Sonoma Raceway has produced 10 different winners in the last 10 races and there are plenty of guys hoping to continue that streak including AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger, who is known for his road course skills, won last year at Watkins Glen and will lead the field to the green flag on Sunday after winning the pole. Find out our thoughts on Allmendinger and others in our 2015 Toyota Save Mart 350 race picks preview!
One of the important aspects to racing in Sonoma is having the right strategy and avoiding mistakes on pit road. Kevin Harvick had the fastest car in this race one year ago but pit road mistakes led to the #4 team’s demise. Harvick’s team made some mistakes on pit road and the #4 car was caught up in an accident while trying to battle his way back to the front. These road course races are not necessarily long races from a mileage standpoint so overcoming mistakes is very difficult because there is simply less time than normal racing. Another important element to winning at Sonoma is having the right strategy and adjusting that strategy as the cautions fall throughout the afternoon. We will see some teams try to gamble and make this a 2 pit stop race on Sunday while others may do some short pitting after a handful of laps in hopes of benefitting from an early caution and make it on 3 pit stops. In reality, there will probably be about 43 different strategies unfolding on Sunday. Therefore just remember that the decisions made from the pit box will be equally important as to having a fast car when the green flag waves.
So who are the most likely candidates to get the job done on Sunday? Well for the first time in several weeks, I would not list any single driver as the overall favorite for tomorrow’s race or even narrow it down to a tight list of favorites. I believe that under the right circumstances as many as 8-12 drivers have a legitimate opportunity to win this race. The predicament is breaking down the race into the most likely circumstances that unfold on Sunday and picking a winner that most likely fits into that threshold. One guy that we know is always at the front at Sonoma is Jeff Gordon. Gordon’s numbers at Sonoma are nothing short of incredible with 5 wins in his 22 starts and an astounding 7.95 career average finishing position. In fact in the last 5 races, Gordon has posted a 6th place, 5th place, and 3 runner-up finishes. I know the #24 team is having a disappointing season but Gordon is also the best that has ever been behind the wheel at Sonoma; therefore his name has to be amongst the favorites going into Sunday after two solid practices on Friday.
Among the other guys getting the most attention this weekend include guys like AJ Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, and Kurt Busch. Allmendinger really liked his race car following Friday’s practices and that resulted into a pole winning performance. I am not sure if I am sold on Allmendinger from a favorite standpoint because his Sonoma resume is pretty average. I believe some people may have jumped on the #47 bandwagon early this week due to AJ’s win at the Glen last year and natural road course talent. There is not any doubt the #47 look good in practice on Friday but will it be a race winning performance? History tells us it is not as likely. Meanwhile history does side with guys like Bowyer, Johnson, Truex and the elder Busch. In fact, those 4 drivers all have a win at Sonoma in the last 5 years and more importantly looked pretty strong on speed in Friday’s sessions. Kurt Busch may have been the best of the bunch in terms of practice appearance but Johnson was not far behind in race trim.
A few guys that may be worth consideration outside the so called “favorites” that I listed above would be Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch. Kahne will be starting from the 26th position after a poor qualifying effort meaning he will have plenty of upside from both an odds and H2H value standpoint. Not only did the #5 car look good in race conditions finishing with the best 10 lap average in final practice but he has also been solid at Sonoma each of the last two years posting two straight 6th place finishes. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch is a guy that I believe has the car and ability to get to victory lane on Sunday. The #18 finished on top of the speed charts in final practice and despite some poor finishes over the last few years; Busch has a win at Sonoma as recently as 2008.
A few guys that you may want to stay away from on Sunday include guys like Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhart Jr, and Kyle Larson. Sonoma is both Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin’s worse track as both drivers have a career average finishing position of 22nd and 23rd. After his best Sonoma finish of his career last year (3rd), Dale Earnhardt Jr has not looked good at all this weekend through both practices and qualifying. At this point, the #88 does not even appear to have a top 15 car. Meanwhile Kyle Larson is a name I threw on this list as a driver to possibly fade in H2H situations. Larson’s 4th place qualifying effort will provide an overvalued type of status for him in H2H plays on Sunday. Larson did not appear too strong in either of Friday’s practices but did post a great qualifying effort. Still the youngster has yet to prove anything on the road courses and I believe he will be worth fading in match-ups on Sunday. Take a look at the rest of our thoughts and selections below:
2015 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks
Kurt Busch +425: (1.5 units): 2011 Sonoma winner, appears to have most speed among favorites, starting 2nd
Martin Truex Jr +850 (1 unit): Wednesday newsletter pick, 2013 Sonoma winner, has led most laps in 4 of last 5 races, finished 5th in final practice, starting 12th.
Jimmie Johnson +1350 (1 unit): 2010 Sonoma winner, finished no worse than 9th in last 6 starts at Sonoma, never bad to have Chad Knaus in the corner when so much strategy is involved, 10th in final practice.
Kasey Kahne +3750 (.5 unit): value play, 2009 Sonoma winner, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, has some work to do starting 26th
Cover Play
Jeff Gordon +650 (1 unit) wins Toyota Save Mart 350
H2H Match-ups and Props
Greg Biffle -110 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Carl Edwards -125 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Austin Dillon -110 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (1 unit)
