2015 Sylvania 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 27th, 2:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tomorrow afternoon the Sprint Cup Series makes their 2nd trip to Loudon with the running of the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Sunday’s race will also mark the 2nd race in the Chase giving just two more chances for drivers to earn their way into the Contender Round. One of the major storylines heading into tomorrow’s 300 mile race includes defending Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick and their need to make up for last week’s misfortune. Harvick’s devastating 42nd place finish as a result of a crash last week at Chicagoland has the defending champ on the ropes. Of course the beauty of the Chase is that a win guarantees your spot into the next round. Find out our thoughts for Sunday’s race and who we think can earn their automatic bid into the Contender Round as we provide our 2015 Sylvania 300 race picks!
Obviously the #4 team is in one of those need to win situations but that could be said for most of the Chase drivers. The better way to describe Harvick’s predicament is he is in a position where they must be more aggressive than others to make up for lost ground. Where other drivers may be a bit cautious to not lose ground, Harvick has to gain every spot he can and that entire team knows how bad they need a win. A lot of talk has been discussed this week about how hard that team has worked to get Harvick into a winning position and that work was on display on Saturday when Harvick posted the fastest lap of the day in final practice. However, the bad news for those rooting for Harvick is that New Hampshire has not been his greatest track. Harvick has posted two 3rd place showings in his last two trips to Loudon but has just 1 victory in 29 career starts. Obviously Harvick has been “close” in recent trips to Loudon and it will be very interesting to see if he comes “close” again or actually gets the job done on Sunday.
If Harvick cannot close the deal, it would be pretty safe to keep betting on the Joe Gibbs Racing machines. Denny Hamlin kept the JGR hot streak alive last week with his victory at Chicagoland. It was the 8th victory in the last 10 races for the JGR brigade and those guys should be especially dangerous again on Sunday as well. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch both share two wins each at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Busch won back in July in the Sprint Cup Series first trip to Loudon in the 5-Hour Energy 301 during his hot streak that included 3 wins in 4 races. This week Busch should again be one of the top contenders. The #18 team closed out happy hour as one of the fastest cars in practice after a somewhat slow start to the weekend. However, expect the #18 to quickly move up from his 17th place starting position.
JGR teammates Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards also had noticeable speed. Hamlin who is already locked into the next round of the Chase thanks to last week’s win in Chicago, appeared to have a top 5 ride throughout final practice. However, Edwards and the #19 team have had the fastest car thus far this weekend. Edwards was fastest in the first two practices, won the pole, and also posted the best 10 lap average in final practice as well. Edwards has never been too great at Loudon in the past but we have been keeping track of the #19 team’s progression in recent weeks. All of the JGR cars have shown the most speed in the Sprint Cup Series over this summer but Edwards has been the guy that has really come on strong as of late. I am not convinced Edwards will win on Sunday as he seems to always let me down in these situations. However, it would be hard to argue against the fact that he has the fastest car going into Sunday and this will be an ideal situation for the #19 team to get another victory.
A few other guys that have shown some speed this weekend that should have a chance for a strong run that you may need to look for in H2H situations include Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. Brad Keselowski was right there with all of the top cars in terms of lap speed on Saturday and officially finished 3rd on the speed charts in the final session. The driver of the blue deuce holds the best average finish among active drivers in Loudon with a 10.25 average finish through his 12 career starts. Keselowski has been extremely strong in recent trips finishing 2nd, 7th, and 1st in his last 3 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. If you are looking for a guy that has kind of flown under the radar this week that could easily walk out of Loudon with a victory, Keselowski could be your guy.
Additionally, I believe Kurt Busch could be an excellent guy in H2H situations especially if he gets paired up against any of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. Jimmie Johnson is the only Hendrick car that has shown any speed this weekend as those cars continue to struggle. Busch on the other hand is a 3 time winner at New Hampshire which is tied for the most among active drivers. The elder Busch has had some bad luck in recent trips to Loudon but I think Sunday’s return could be a good run for the #41 machine. If you can find Kurt in some opportunistic matchups, he should be a great choice from a value standpoint.
Additionally, keep guys like Tony Stewart and Kyle Larson on your radar for H2H situations. Larson posted top 3 finishes in both races here last year before finishing 31st back in July this year thanks to a pair of speeding penalties on pit road. Expect Larson to rebound this week while Smoke may be in line for a better run as well. I know Stewart has been fade material for the last 2 years but I have a feeling the #14 could run well on Sunday giving him some value in lower tier matchups or even for a low end fantasy roster spot.
2015 Sylvania 300 Race Picks
Carl Edwards +750 (1.25 units): #19 team has a lot of momentum, fastest car all weekend, starting on pole in search of first Loudon win
Kyle Busch +850 (1.25 units): finished 2nd or better in 4 of last 5 New Hampshire races including win back in July, came on strong in final practice
Denny Hamlin +1150 (1 unit): Hamlin can take some chances with his win already in the books, 3rd fastest 10 lap average in final practice, two-time winner, starting 7th
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick +425 wins Sylvania 300
Dale Earnhardt Jr -125 over Martin Truex Jr
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1270
H2H Matchups and Props
Kyle Busch -105 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -120 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -160 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -105 over Jeff Gordon (1 unit)
