2015 STP 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 29th, 2:46PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The half-mile “paperclip” known as Martinsville Speedway will be the host for tomorrow’s STP 500 which will see the green flag wave at approximately 1:13PM (EST). Martinsville is like no other track in a number of ways. It is the oldest track on the NASCAR circuit, it has its own unique trophy in a grandfather clock, and it is one of the last true short tracks remaining on the NASCAR schedule. Anytime the green flag waves at Martinsville, then you can bet that there will be a lot of beating and banging on one another as drivers fight for track position and try to protect the inside racing groove that is right up against the curbs in both turns. So who has what it takes to survive an afternoon in Martinsville? Take a look as we provide our STP 500 race picks!
There are a number of useful handicapping techniques that are useful for Martinsville Speedway but you will still need some luck when it comes down towards the checkered flag on Sunday. A lot of things can change in the final laps at Martinsville just as we saw earlier today in the Camping World Truck Series race that saw 3 different leaders in the final 10 laps. The best thing you can do is pick drivers that have a good chance of putting their selves in position for a win and making sure that those selections have value from an odds perspective. Often when Martinsville rolls around, bettors want to take the top 3-4 drivers based on track history alone. However, it is imperative that bettors are getting a solid ROI with their rosters because these endings at Martinsville can get very tricky and you do not want to have all your money on a bunch of favorites with very little profit potential.
Obviously names like Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Denny Hamlin are appetizing anytime Martinsville rolls around. Johnson and Gordon have 8 wins each throughout their careers while Hamlin has 4 wins in just 18 starts. In fact, those same 3 guys finished 1st through 3rd in practice 2 and then finished 2nd through 4th on the speed charts in final practice on Saturday. Therefore the ‘Big 3’ of Martinsville have looked good again so far this weekend. Unfortunately it would not make much sense to bet all 3 drivers and would still be even tough to pick two of those drivers unless they were placed in parlay situations. If you are needing help choosing between the 3, I would rank them like this currently: Johnson, Gordon, and Hamlin. Hopefully bettors have a parlay or two in their pocket for use if they decide to take any driver from the group of “favorites” which also includes Kevin Harvick who has an active streak of 8 straight top 2 finishes
Outside of the favorites, what other drivers could shine on Sunday? Well several drivers have shown the potential to put together a good run tomorrow afternoon. Both Ryan Newman and Martin Truex Jr are looking to extend their strong starts in 2015. Neither driver has been extremely impressive at Martinsville in track history but they continue to put together strong runs each week despite what the averages may try to indicate. Newman qualified in the 2nd position while Truex Jr will start one position back in 3rd when the green flag waves. Both starts are the best for each driver thus far in 2015. Thus far, the #31 car appears to have a little better car between the two and finished 6th in final practice.
A few more guys that could easily contend on Sunday include both Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kurt Busch. Earnhardt won most recently at Martinsville last October and has been pretty upbeat all weekend with the #88 machine. Busch had a bad qualifying effort but the #41 team found some speed on Saturday and finished on top of the leaderboard in final practice. Busch has posted back to back top 3 finishes and he was our Newsletter pick for another top 3 finish at +500 earlier this week once openers were released.
If you are looking for guys that have rising or declining stock from a match-up perspectives, I would like to discuss a few drivers on both sides of that coin. Two drivers that I think will have a good day include both Carl Edwards and Danica Patrick. Edwards has yet to score a top 10 finish this season but finished Saturday’s final practice with the best 10 lap average. More importantly, Edwards was really excited about Sunday’s race even stating that he learned a few things from Denny Hamlin this weekend. Of course Hamlin is not a bad teacher to have on your team at a place like Martinsville. Patrick is another driver that I think could have some value in lower tier match-ups. Patrick ran well at Martinsville as a rookie in 2013 with finishes of 17th and 12th. Last year, she got into incidents in both Martinsville races but the #10 car has shown speed. In lower tier match-ups, she holds some value as I could see her flirting with a top 15 finish.
Two drivers that I would say have a declining stock in match-ups or potential fades include both Tony Stewart and Kyle Larson. Stewart is possibly a fade for obvious reasons as the #14 has been pretty horrible all year. Stewart did have a solid run last week in Fontana and made a point to say that the team is improving. Stewart even qualified the #14 car in the 6th position for tomorrow’s race. Despite the apparent improvement, I am not convinced the #14 car is anywhere where they need to be. Remember I stated last week that Stewart should have a decent day because the team has speed and Fontana is not an entirely difficult track to drive.
This week I think Stewart may be getting too much credit in match-ups as odds makers expect him to have another solid outing. Instead, I think the #14 will have a very pedestrian afternoon. Lastly, Kyle Larson has been fast on the speed charts this week. The problem is that Larson is always fast on the speed charts. The kid has 3 starts at Martinsville with finishes of 27th, 30th, and 42nd. Two of those finishes were the result of a wreck and a blown engine. However, the #42 car has never been really strong in any race before those incidents occurred. After some solid practices and a 7th place qualifying effort, I would not get too caught up in the hype surrounding Larson this week.
STP 500 Race Picks
Ryan Newman +2500: 2012 Martinsville winner, finished 3rd last October, having a great 2015 season, starting 2nd
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1350: 2014 fall winner, 5th best average finishing position among active drivers, not overly impressive in practice but that is not uncommon, #88 should be solid today
Joey Logano +950: two top 5 finishes at Martinsville in 2014, solid in race trim on Saturday, finished 7th in final practice, starting on pole
Parlay
Joey Logano +150 wins Kroger 250
Jimmie Johnson/Denny Hamlin +262 wins STP 500
To win: +740
H2H and Prop Bets
Ryan Newman -125 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Kurt Busch +500 finishes Top 3
Carl Edwards +400 finishes Top 5
