2015 Quicken Loans 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 15th, 2:41PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series will go racing at Phoenix International Raceway this afternoon for the Quicken Loans 500 in a race that will determine the final 4 drivers that will go to Homestead and race for the Sprint Cup Championship. Jeff Gordon is the only driver that has already locked in his ticket for Homestead thanks to his win at Martinsville. Today the remaining 3 drivers will be decided for the Chase and for drivers Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano it is a win or go home situation. Therefore things are surely going to get wild with 500 laps on the books for this afternoon. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our 2015 Quicken Loans 500 race picks!
The overall favorite for today’s race is Kevin Harvick which should be no surprise to anyone. Harvick has dominated Phoenix as well as any other driver has dominated a track in recent memory. “Happy” has won the last 4 straight races at Phoenix and also 5 of the last 6 as well. Harvick was once again strong in Saturday’s two practice sessions but not necessarily dominate on the speed charts. The good news for Harvick is that he does not need a victory to advance but due to his recent dominance at PIR who should bet against him? If you are looking at speed alone, Kurt Busch appeared to have the fastest car throughout Saturday’s sessions. Busch swept both practices and also had the fastest 10 lap average in practice 2. Busch drove the #41 to a 5th place finish back in the spring and by the looks of things they have an even faster car for today’s race.
A few other guys that looked really strong in practices included the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Both the #48 and #88 cars come out of the same Hendrick Motorsports shop and they appear to have come with similarly strong packages this week. Johnson stole the Chase spotlight last week with his win at Texas becoming the first non-Chase driver to win since the Chase began. Both Johnson and Earnhardt have a history of running well at Phoenix. The #48 finished 2nd in final practice with the #88 closely behind in 3rd. In the same order, both cars posted the fastest 10 lap averages of the afternoon as well. Earnhardt has 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 Phoenix races which is 2nd only Kevin Harvick who has dominated as we already mentioned. Therefore, I would not be surprised if both the #88 and the #48 remained at the front all afternoon.
For the likes of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, things do not appear as hopeful. Both drivers need a victory to advance which is surprising especially if you consider Logano won all 3 races in the last round of the Chase. However, both guys are in a similar situation this afternoon in desperately needing a victory. The bad news for those pulling for the Penske Racing drivers is that neither looked really good throughout Saturday’s sessions and neither driver has ever won at Phoenix. Keselowski has historically run pretty well despite 0 wins. He has posted finishes of 6th or better in 6 of the last 7 races. Logano on the other hand has just 2 top 5 finishes in 13 career starts. I did not see much in practices that would change either driver’s winless streak at Phoenix unless they hit on some big unforeseen changes overnight.
If you are looking for some drivers for H2H action or even for NASCAR fantasy, then you may want to consider putting Kyle Larson on your rosters this afternoon. Larson should be paired in lower tier matchups and he is also a lower salary driver. Larson has not exactly run well in recent weeks but most of the poor finishes have been due to misfortune instead of speed. Larson returns to Phoenix this afternoon where he posted a 10th place finish back in the spring and also sported two of his better practice sessions of the entire season on Saturday. I think the #42 for those reasons has a lot of value to bring to the table this afternoon for a driver that should run well. Another guy that fits a lot of those same parameters as Larson is the driver of the #5 machine in Kasey Kahne. Kahne is another driver that run well here back in the spring and had a few solid practices that should bring some similar value in matchup opportunities. Of course there is no telling how much can change once the green flag is waved especially with drivers so desperate to get a win or a strong run this afternoon. However take a look as we provide our best opportunity to score big on today’s Quicken Loans 500!
2015 Quicken Loans 500 Race Picks
Jimmie Johnson +675 (1.5 units): 4-time Phoenix winner, looked very good in race trim including best 10 lap average, the #48 can be streaky, seeking 2nd straight win, starting on pole
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1150 (1 unit): two-time Phoenix winner, 3 top 5 finishes in last 5 starts, looked really strong in practices, best qualifying effort of the year away from the restrictor plate tracks, starting 3rd
Carl Edwards +1250 (1 unit): two-time Phoenix winner, will have to race his way into the Chase, 2nd fastest in final practice with solid long run lap times, starting 4th
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +130 wins DAV 200
Kurt Busch +490 wins Quicken Loans 500
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1885
H2H Matchups and Props
Kasey Kahne -145 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +135 over Carl Edwards (2 units)
Kyle Busch -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +345 wins Group A (Keselowski, Logano, Ky Busch, and Hamlin)
Kasey Kahne +1000 finishes top 3(.5 unit)
