2015 Quaker State 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 11th, 7:45PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series action returns to the Saturday night stage later this evening with the running of the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. One of the main storylines heading into tonight’s 400 mile event is the new aero package that has debuted this weekend in the Bluegrass State. The new aero packages include a smaller rear spoiler, new splitter measurements on the front of the car, along with a few other minor changes that have been designed to decrease the amount of grip in the racecars in hopes to provoke more passing among the leaders. On Friday, drivers were already talking about how the cars were tougher to drive just after a two practice session with minimum simulated racing action. Therefore tonight’s race could get very interesting especially when cars are running really close together in dirty air which should intensify the way these cars react to these new aero changes. Take a look as we prepare and anticipate an exciting race tonight with our 2015 Quaker State 400 race picks preview!
On Friday Penske Racing cars shined in the final practice session. Both Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano finished 2nd and 3rd respectively on the speed charts. The #2 team of Keselowski had possibly their best practice session of the season which may not come as much surprise considering Keselowski’s resume at Kentucky. Bad Brad has won 2 of the 4 races at Kentucky that have been run in the Sprint Cup Series and just won his 3rd Xfinity Series race last night in the Kentucky 300. Needless to say, Keselowski has been the best in the field through both series in Kentucky and is the driver to beat going into tonight’s race. Teammate Joey Logano has not scored a win in the Sprint Cup Series at Kentucky but did score 3 straight wins in the Xfinity Series from 2008-2010 and has openly stated he likes the track. Considering how strong both Penske Racing cars looked in practice with these new changes, I believe the #2 and #22 are in-line for strong runs tonight barring any unforeseen misfortunes.
Outside of the Penske Racing cars, the only driver that arguably looked better was Kyle Larson. Larson topped the charts in both of the weekend’s practice sessions and looked solid in race trim as well. Larson’s driving style would benefit from these new aero changes if they make as big of an impact to the racing as the initial claims have stated. Still even with that being said, Larson has had a few practices this year where he has been really high on the speed charts and faded through the field once the green flag stops. Hopefully tonight is the night the #42 team can get back to their 2014 form when they were a threat at the end of the year on all the 1.5 mile tracks. Both practices have got the #42 team headed in the right direction but now they need to prove it under race conditions.
A lot of your normal names were also amongst the leaders following Friday’s final practice. Names like Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr all finished in the top 10 on speed in the final session. Both Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr have been really strong on all the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Johnson has scored 3 wins on the 1.5 mile tracks as the overall best car on tracks in similar style and looked to have a solid ride ready for tonight’s event. Johnson’s teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr has had many surprisingly strong runs on the 1.5 mile tracks and is the only driver in the Sprint Cup Series to score all top 5’s at every 1.5 mile track this season. Junior had a strong practice on Friday and while the chances of him winning for the 2nd week in a row are minimal; the #88 still holds some upside especially in H2H situations.
Another two drivers to keep your eye on tonight will be the Busch brothers. Kurt Busch was notably strong on long runs in practice which raises the #41 stock. Meanwhile Kyle Busch is one of the best in the field at Kentucky. The younger Busch won the inaugural race at Kentucky back in 2011 and has posted finishes of 10th, 5th, and 2nd since. The #18 was another car that looked good in race trim and should benefit from the aero changes that takes the rear downforce off the rear of the car. I expect the #18 to be a big factor in tonight’s race and he could be the best threat outside of the Penske Racing cars to take the checkered flag.
2015 Quaker State 400 Race Picks
Brad Keselowski +600 (2 units): very strong practices, leads both Xfinity and Sprint Cup Series in wins at Kentucky
Joey Logano +800 (1.5 units): possibly 2nd best car in practices behind the #2, top 5 finishes at Atlanta, Texas, and Kansas this year, Penske Racing cars look strong
Kyle Busch +900 (1 unit): 2011 Kentucky winner, runner-up last year, solid in race trim, looking to benefit from new aero changes
H2H Match-ups and Props
Ryan Newman -115 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -105 over Matt Kenseth (1 unit)
