2015 Pure Michigan 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 16th, 2:46PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
In just a few hours, the Sprint Cup Series will go racing at Michigan International Speedway for the 2nd time this season when the green flag is waved for the Pure Michigan 400. Back in June, Kurt Busch scored his 2nd win of the season in a rain shortened Quicken Loans 400. Today with weather permitting, we appear to be ready for a full 400 miles of racing at one of NASCAR’s quickest and most exciting speedways. So buckle up, as we provide our 2015 Pure Michigan 400 race picks and prepare for an exciting afternoon of racing!
One thing that bettors must understand about Michigan is that rarely does the best car win these races. Michigan is a track known having a lot of strategy from race teams on race day whether it is due to simply track position or fuel mileage. When drivers get out front, they can be tough to reel in and I am not quite sure if the Indianapolis aero package will change matters much. Therefore do not be afraid to take some chances with your roster this afternoon. Back in June, Kurt Busch was listed as high as 19-1 on the day of the Quicken Loans 400 and there will be plenty of dark horses worthy of that type of attention again this afternoon.
Among the cars that should run well include drivers Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Busch. Harvick topped the charts in practice 2 on Saturday and also posted the best 10 lap average of the entire weekend. Before his 29th place finish in June, Harvick had recorded 4 straight runner-up finishes and he should be knocking on the door again this afternoon. Truex finished a top the charts in final practice and I believe that the #78 is creeping back into the winning picture. The #78 team had cooled off a bit from their torching pace they were running about 2 months ago where they were bringing one of the fastest cars to the track each week. However, this week they have been rock solid and after a strong running here back in June; they could easily challenge for a win today.
Lastly, Kyle Busch is also included in that group that stood out a bit in practices. The #48 could have arguably been listed in that group as well. However, Busch appears once again to have one of the best cars in the field. A lot of the talk over the last week involved Joey Logano’s victory at The Glen with Kevin Harvick running out of gas less than a half mile from the checkered flag. However lost in most of that talk is the fact that Busch had the best car throughout the entire race which has essentially been the norm in the Sprint Cup Series. On Saturday, the #18 car looked really stout on long green runs which indicates he could have another really strong car in race conditions this afternoon. Busch has not posted a ton of quality finishes at Michigan but he does have a 2011 win to his resume. It will be interesting to see if the #18 team can sustain their hot pace once the green waves today.
If you are looking for a few other guys that have some value, I think it would be hard to ignore the #20 or the #88 cars. Kenseth won the pole for today’s race and had some solid speed in race trim. Expect the 20 to lead the early laps. The question will be if he can keep the #20 at the front after the first couple of cautions or pit stops. JGR cars have been running really well and Kenseth surprisingly has the 3rd best average finishing position among active drivers over the last 10 races at Michigan. Dale Earnhardt Jr is also a guy that should be given some attention. Everyone remembers Juniors fuel mileage win here in 2012 that ended a 143 race winless streak. However, Earnhardt has actually had several strong runs since including a 2nd place showing back in June. The #88 was in the 2nd position for about the 2nd half of that race and could have easily had something for the #41 if not for the rain shortened event. The #88 car has never been one to dominate the speed charts in practices. However, the car has been solid in terms of speed and I expect that #88 team to have a good afternoon.
If you are still wanting a few other guys that could have value from a H2H or fantasy standpoint, look no further than Ryan Blaney and Clint Bowyer. Bowyer would be an excellent fantasy choice due to his low salary and consistent finishes at Michigan. Bowyer actually leads all drivers in average finishing position over the last 10 races at Michigan with an 8.1 average finishing position. In fact, Bowyer has posted 9 straight top 10 finishes at Michigan including a 10th place showing back in June. Blaney is another guy I think has a lot of upside in both fantasy and H2H situations. The #21 team has brought some fast cars to the track with Blaney but have lacked some of the finishes to show for it. The #21 team has seemingly improved with every practice this week and I expect the #21 to move forward from his 19th place starting position once the green flag waves.
2015 Pure Michigan 400 Race Picks
Carl Edwards +850 (1 unit): best average finish among active drivers, fastest in practice 1, really strong with this package back at Indy, starting 3rd
Joey Logano +900 (1 unit): running really well, finished 9th or better in last 5 Michigan races, also performed well with this package back at Indy
Martin Truex Jr +1250 (1 unit): 3rd place finish back in June, fastest in final practice, #78 team appears to be regaining early summer form, starting 22nd
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2500 (.5 unit): 2012 winner, finished 7th or better in last 3 Michigan starts including runner-up back in June, value play
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick +410 wins Pure Michigan 400
Ryan Newman +160 over Tony Stewart
Risking 1 unit to win: +1225
H2H Match-ups and Props
Austin Dillon -130 over Paul Menard (2 units)
Kyle Larson -125 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Joey Logano -120 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -135 over Dale Earnhartd Jr (1 unit)
