2015 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 7th, 3:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The 2nd leg of a 3 day weekend at Texas Motor Speedway will resume today when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge. Today’s race is scheduled to go 200 laps and will feature one of the most talented fields of the season. Last night’s Truck Series winner Erik Jones will be in action along with the likes of Austin Dillon, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch. With such a talented field on display, it will be exciting to watch how things unfold this evening with 300 miles of racing. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our 2015 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Race Picks!
Back in April, Erik Jones scored his first Xfinity Series win of his career with a victory at Texas Motor Speedway. The youngster will have a chance to go back to back in a number of ways this afternoon due to the fact he will be trying to go for his 2nd straight Texas win in the Xfinity Series and will also be going for his 2nd straight victory going back to last night’s truck race. Jones has been excellent on the 1.5 mile layouts this season with an additional victory at Chicagolang along with two runner-up finishes at Kentucky and most recently at Charlotte a few weeks ago. The #20 car was 3rd on the speed charts in practice but the car had a little more fall off in race trim that the team will have to work on to get it in contention for a victory this evening.
Speaking of times falling off, the surface at Texas Motor Speedway is abrasive on tires. All cars will experience a significant drop-off in lap times after just a handful of laps. Therefore teams have to make sure they are nailing their pit stops this afternoon because every stop for tires will be important in the race for track position. Track position will be key towards crowning a winner this afternoon and the driver that can take care of his tires will likely be able to maintain that track position as well. I believe once you look at those circumstances it brings more value to Kevin Harvick in the #88 Hunt Brother Pizza Chevrolet. Harvick won 2 of the first 3 Xfinity Series races of this season this year but has went cold ever since with a best finish of 4th in the 8 starts since. However, today’s race should provide an excellent opportunity to get “Happy” back to victory lane.
Harvick has 5 Xfinity Series victories at Texas which is 2nd only to Kyle Busch who has 7. Both cars have shown enough speed during practice to return back to victory lane this afternoon. Busch and Harvick finished 6th and 8th respectively in final practice. However, I think today’s race may play into Harvick’s favor a bit more because of the way the tires are wearing at an accelerated rate. Harvick runs really well at Atlanta under those conditions and he seemed to be excited about the race conditions that would be apparent this afternoon. Plus Busch’s odds are ridiculously low with this extremely talented field which hurts our ROI if we add him to our roster in such a wide open race.
Brad Keselowski is in a similar boat from an odds perspective and he has just 1 victory in 15 Texas starts. Furthermore, I am not extremely sold on the #22 car at this point after they failed to lead a single lap at both Charlotte and Kansas between Keselowski and Logano. Instead, I feel like the guy that is getting overlooked is Austin Dillon. Dillon showed plenty of speed by finishing with the fastest lap in practice and he has been impressive on the 1.5 mile tracks this season with 3 victories at Las Vegas and Charlotte (2). Charlotte is extremely similar to Texas in layout design, banking, and setup. I believe the #33 could be a threat again this afternoon with the speed they have shown off the truck and his success at similar layouts this season.
A few other guys that should have a solid outing this afternoon include the likes of Daniel Suarez and Darrell Wallace Jr. Suarez keeps impressing especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. He was very good at Charlotte and was among the better cars in race trim. I doubt he breaks through to score his first victor today based on the sheer talent in the field alone. However, he should be a great play in H2H type situations. Wallace is another sleeper style pick in a match-ups battle. The #6 team ran really well back at Texas in the spring race and they have done a good job of hanging around inside the top 10 in recent races. I believe today Wallace could hang around the top 10 again and potentially push for a top 5 finish if things go their way.
2015 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Race Picks
Erik Jones +750 (1.5 units): early forums pick, great on 1.5 mile layouts, won at Texas back in April, 3rd in final practice
Austin Dillon +850 (1.5 units): early forums pick, 3 wins on 1.5 mile tracks this season including two at sister track at Charlotte, fastest in final practice
H2H Matchups
Kevin Harvick +115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -140 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
