2015 MyAFibRisk.com 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 20th, 3:16PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup will start today with the running of the MyAFibRisk.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Currently 16 drivers are alive in the Chase and one of those drivers could lock their selves into the next round with a victory this afternoon. One of the major questions entering the Chase is can anyone knock off the Joe Gibbs Racing camp? JGR cars have dominated the summer months winning 7 of the last 9 races. The top two drivers from JGR in Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are pretty heavy favorites to win the championship and it will be interesting to see if their momentum carries throughout the Chase. However nothing that has happened before today really matters as everything of championship importance starts today at Chicagoland. Take a look as we provide our full handicapping preview and provide our 2015 MyAFibRisk.com 400 race picks!
Drivers like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Matt Kenseth have a rich history at Chicagoland Speedway which should put them on everyone’s radar this afternoon. Harvick won the first two races at Chicagoland Speedway in 2001 and 2002 while also finishing in the top 5 in 3 of the last 4 races. Keselowski has won 2 of the last 3 races including last year’s MyAFibRisk.com 400 to kick off the Chase and immediately secured a spot into the Contender Round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Every driver that is in the Chase would love to secure a win this afternoon to advance to take the pressure off of the next two races. Matt Kenseth is a lot of people’s favorite to do just that this afternoon. Kenseth won most recently at Chicagoland in 2013 and is probably the hottest driver entering the Chase. After a solid final practice where the #20 was top 5 in 10 lap averages, you should expect another quality performance from the Dollar General team.
One of the interesting tidbits following Saturday’s practice was the apparent reemergence of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. Dale Earnhardt Jr’s victory in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona in July is the only win the entire Hendrick stable has posted since May. It has been pretty obvious in recent weeks that the entire team has been struggling to find speed but they unloaded strong at Chicagoland. Specifically the #48 and #24 cars looked really well. Jimmie Johnson posted the best 10 lap averages in both of Saturday’s practices marking his best practice sessions of the summer. Meanwhile Jeff Gordon also looked pretty sporty with some solid speed in race trim. Despite just 1 victory in 14 starts, Gordon has posted some quality finishes in recent years at Chicagoland including a runner-up showing last year. In fact, I would list Gordon as a great H2H driver in matchups and would consider him for your fantasy rosters in today’s race as well.
With the increase in speed from the Chevrolet cars, we also saw Martin Truex Jr return to the top of the leader boards. Truex was one of the hottest drivers in the series at the beginning of the summer before fading a bit in recent weeks. However, Truex was right behind Johnson posting the 2nd best 10 lap averages in both of Saturday’s sessions. In 9 starts, Truex has yet to post a top 5 finish at Chicagoland but it is safe to say that he has exceeded his prior year’s bullet points when you look at the season he has put together in 2015. Expect the #78 to have a solid afternoon as another driver that may be considered a potential dark horse. On the contrary, I am expecting a less than stellar day from the #22 group. Joey Logano has been one of the hotter drivers in the series in recent weeks. In fact, he is the only driver to win races outside of the JGR group in the last 9 races. Logano posted a 4th place finish in this race a year ago and with his momentum his stock has been elevated. However, the #22 team struggled heavily in practice and unless they nailed their final changes, I am expecting a mediocre outing from Logano this afternoon.
Lastly if you are looking for a few guys that could potentially steal the show from the Chase drivers, I think you have to start with Kyle Larson. Larson nearly crashed the Chase party last year by winning this race before finishing 3rd. He has grown fondly of Chicagoland Speedway in a very short time and also looked really good at times in his #42 ride in yesterday’s Xfinity Series race. The youngster was 5th best in terms of 10 lap averages in final practice and I would really look for that car to come alive on long green flag runs as drivers have to search for grip. Expect the #42 and possibly even through in a name like Austin Dillon who may have surprisingly strong runs from the drivers outside of the Chase picture.
2015 MyAFibRisk.com 400 Race Picks
Kevin Harvick +400 (2.5 units): extremely fast late in final practice as times starting falling off, led most laps in this race last year before finishing 5th, two-time winner, starting P1
Jimmie Johnson +700 (1.5 units): when the #48 dominates practice he usually backs it up on Sunday, one of the only tracks he has never won at, expect that streak to be threatened today
Kyle Larson +3000 (1 unit): 3rd place finish last year, one of those tracks that suits his driving style, should be good on long runs, 5th best 10 lap average and receiving valuable odds
H2H Match-ups and Props
Jimmie Johnson -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Kyle Larson -130 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Jeff Gordon +160 over Denny Hamlin (1 unit)
Jeff Gordon +325 wins Group C (Earnhardt, McMurray, Kahne, and Newman) (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +800 top 3 finish (1 unit)
