2015 Kentucky 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday July 10th, 7:48PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
In just a few hours, the Xfinity Series will go racing under the lights at Kentucky Speedway in the Kentucky 300. Unfortunately rain shorted some of the Xfinity Series’ plans this week washing out the first scheduled practice and also causing a cancellation to qualifying today. However teams and drivers did get some practice time on Thursday unlike the Truck Series that raced last night without any practice or qualifying sessions. As a result, the starting lineup has been based off Thursday’s lone practice session which will place JJ Yeley on the pole. Take a look as we preview tonight’s race and provide our 2015 Kentucky 300 race picks!
One of the first things that bettors should know is that this should be a race between Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski if all goes according to plan. Kentucky is a very unique 1.5 mile track that is very bumpy and favors experience. Drivers that know how to keep their car stable through the bumps will be the guys running at the front. Both Busch and Keselowski have been the best at Kentucky not only in the Xfinity Series but also in the Sprint Cup Series. Keselowski has won 2 races and Busch won the first race at Kentucky in 2011. Therefore, both drivers have won 3 of the 4 Sprint Cup Series races at Kentucky. In the Xfinity Series things have been similar with Keselowski having two additional wins and Busch adding another. Both drivers were in the top 6 on speed on Thursday with Busch also posting the best 10 lap average (Keselowski did not run 10 consecutive laps). Therefore expect the #22 and #54 to be the class of the field.
Obviously it will be nearly impossible to bet both the #22 and #54 from an odds standpoint but I do not see how you could avoid having at least one of those drivers on your roster. Outside of Bad Brad and Rowdy, there are several notable names that will be contending to steal the spotlight. Dale Earnhardt Jr makes his return to the Xfinity Series tonight and Erik Jones returns to the #20 car. Earnhardt and Jones are the most likely contenders to pull off the upset. However Earnhardt struggled a bit on speed in practice finishing 16 on the speed charts. The #88 appeared pretty solid in race trim but you could tell they were not overly thrilled with the car. Jones on the other hand may be the better choice for a dark horse tonight. The young driver already has two wins this season on the 1.5 mile tracks and looked solid again in practice.
I believe the degree of difficulty that is required to race upfront at Kentucky keeps the chances of a real surprise winner to a minimum. However there should be some opportunities to take advantage of H2H matchups. A few key notes for H2H matchups include the fact that all the JR Motorsports cars struggled to some degree while the Richard Childress Racing cars look pretty good as they typically do in practice. Brendan Gaughan should be a great pick in H2H action. Gaughan has finished no worse than 6th in his 5 career starts at Kentucky and he scored a rather surprising win in this race one year ago. The #62 finished 3rd in practice and I believe deserves some attention going into tonight’s race.
2015 Kentucky 300 Race Picks
Kyle Busch +225 (2.5 units): fastest 10 lap average in final practice, 2004 Xfinity Series winner at Kentucky
Erik Jones +1350 (1 unit): two wins already on 1.5 mile tracks, 6th on speed in practice, should be the best car outside of the #22 and #54
H2H Match-ups
Brendan Gaughan +105 over Elliot Sadler (3 units)
Erik Jones -140 over Chase Elliot (2 units)
Brian Scott -125 over Regan Smith (1 unit)
