2015 IRWIN Tools Night Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 22nd, 7:46PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
One of the most anticipated races of the season will take place tonight when the green flag is waved for the IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. 43 cars are set to tangle at Thunder Valley for a full night of short track racing, Saturday night style, at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile. So far this week, our race picks cashed on the Camping World Truck Series race on Wednesday and then again last night in the Xfinity Series Food City 300. Tonight we look to complete the trifecta in one of the most exciting races of the season. Take a look as we prepare for 500 laps around the bullring that is Bristol and provide our 2015 IRWIN Tools Night race picks!
From a betting or fantasy standpoint, I think that all attention must start with the Joe Gibbs Racing machines this evening. We have thoroughly documented JGR’s strengths and rise to power over the last few months. Tonight’s race at Bristol presents another golden opportunity for the JGR camp as they seek their 10th victory of the season. The JGR cars have practiced strong and qualified extremely well taking up the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 13th place starting positions. However, the JGR drivers are more of a threat than just what we have seen on paper this week as each driver has a respectable resume to bring to the table tonight. Kyle Busch has 5 victories on the Cup side and owns the most wins through all of NASCAR’s touring series with a combined 17 wins at Thunder Valley. Matt Kenseth owns 4 Bristol victories having won 2 of the last 4 including the most recent visit to Bristol back in March in the Food City 500. Carl Edwards has 3 Bristol victories with the most recent coming in March of last year and Denny Hamlin is a known short track specialist with a 2012 IRWIN Tools Night Race victory to his credit.
Therefore if you consider the way the JGR cars have been running throughout the summer months, combine their personal resumes at Bristol, and add along with the fact of how strong they have looked already this weekend, it would be quite dumb to not consider those drivers as the guys to beat tonight. Busch and Kenseth are probably the best choices out of the group. Busch is always a threat at Bristol no matter how he has been running prior to the event but with this year’s success, he is locked in as the overwhelming favorite. On Friday, Busch recorded the best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages in practice before qualifying on the outside pole. Kenseth on the other hand has won two of the last 3 races (1 by way of fuel mileage) and now gets another chance at one of his best tracks. Kenseth also looked really solid in race trim on Friday so expect him to move up from his 13th place starting position once the green flag waves.
So who can knock off the JGR cars tonight? Well the answer to that question may be along the lines of “to be determined.” There have not been any drivers to emerge from the pack to proclaim their selves as top contenders tonight. However, that is not to say there are not plenty of drivers that can get the job done. One guy in particular that I believe could have as good of a chance as any to pull off the victory tonight is the #41 car of Kurt Busch. The elder Busch, like his younger brother, also has 5 wins at Bristol despite the last victory coming all the way back in 2006. However, Busch has been running a lot better than he has in recent years to Bristol leading up to tonight’s race and has posted top 10 finishes in 8 of the last 10 races. Add the fact that he led 98 laps back in the spring along with some solid 10 lap averages throughout practice this weekend, I think Busch could be a factor tonight barring any unforeseen strokes of bad luck.
A few dark horses that could break into the light include guys like Kyle Larson, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and even Clint Bowyer. Earnhardt has a Bristol win to his resume coming all the way back in 2004. The #88 did not seem too convincing in terms of single lap speed throughout practices. However, the #88 car did lay down some consistent times and Earnhardt himself seemed to be happy with the race setup. Kyle Larson has proved in just a few appearances that he can get around Bristol fairly well. Bristol is a track where you really feather the throttle throughout the corner, as you tiptoe the edge of out of control, which seems to be right up Larson’s alley from a driving style standpoint. The youngster has not finished worse than 12th in his first 3 starts in the Cup Series at BMS. The #42 was 2nd in 10 lap averages in practice 1 and posted the fastest 10 lap average in final practice so look for him to move to the front.
Lastly, do not forget about Clint Bowyer despite his uncertain future. Bowyer has really run strong lately with 3 finishes of 8th or better within the last 4 starts. It appears that the gains that JGR has made have also filtered into the Michael Waltrip Racing program because both Bowyer and the #55 of David Ragan have been running well in terms of speed. Albeit, these gains are a bit too late considering the recent news at MWR but Bowyer has typically run well at Bristol with some quality finishes in recent years. I believe the #15, and the #88 for that matter, could be an excellent fantasy choices tonight or even in some H2H match-ups.
2015 IRWIN Tools Night Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +650 (1.5 units): won 2 of last 3 races, won 2 of last 4 Bristol races, 2nd in final practice, JGR cars look dominate
Kyle Larson +1600 (1 unit): 12th or better in all 3 Bristol starts, #42 car looked really good in race trim, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, starting 12th
Kurt Busch +1300 (1 unit): 5-time Bristol winner, 5th place in this race last year, solid in race trim, my leading candidate to spoil the JGR party tonight, starting 11th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +4000 (.5 unit): dark horse play of the night, 2004 winner, looked solid in race trim, likes the way the car handled on long runs
Ryan Blaney +15000 (.5 unit): Kid has proven himself on every level on short tracks, 1st Xfinity Series win came at the Bristol night race last year, after a pair of strong practices at 150-1 odds, there is no reason to not take a shot!
Two-Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +295 wins IRWIN Tools Night Race
Kyle Larson -125 finishes under 10.5
Risking 1.5 units to win: +915
H2H Parlay
Clint Bowyer -220 over Tony Stewart
Joey Logano +100 over Brad Keselowski
Kasey Kahne -115 finishes under 16.5
Risking 1 unit to win: +445
H2H Matchups and Props
Kasey Kahne -115 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Kurt Busch -110 over Carl Edwards (1 unit)
Ryan Newman -150 over Tony Stewart (1 unit)
