2015 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 18th, 2:18PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The engines will fire on the 2nd race in the Contender Round this afternoon for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Last week, Joey Logano locked himself into the next round of the Chase with his victory at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Today 11 other Chase drivers will be trying to score a win and secure their spot into the Eliminator Round. Failure to score a victory today and that will open the door for unlimited possibilities when the series hits Talladega next week in a free-for-all. Today we get ready for 400 miles of racing and offer our 2015 Hollywood Casino 400 race picks!
Back in May, Jimmie Johnson overtook Kevin Harvick in the closing laps to win the SpongeBob SquarePants 400. While Johnson is no longer a part of the Chase field, I still think he could be a factor in today’s race again. The #48 was really fast in all practices on Saturday finishing on top of the board in Happy Hour and also posted the best 10 lap average of the weekend. Expect Johnson to rally from his 21st place starting position and possibly have a chance to upset the Chase field this afternoon. Along with the #48, several Chevrolet teams showed signs of life for the first time in several weeks.
Guys like Martin Truex Jr, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and even Kasey Kahne showed a lot of speed at times throughout Saturday’s practices. I believe Truex could be the sleeper pick of the afternoon. The #78 has looked great all weekend and he led a race high 95 laps back in the May race. Teammates Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne also came on strong at the end of Happy Hour so keep those guys on your radars in H2H situations. The #88 team will need a strong run today to get their selves back into contention in the Chase.
Of course Chevrolet driver Kevin Harvick has been great everywhere in recent weeks so he is the exception to the newly found Chevrolet life. Harvick has also been great at Kansas with a win and two runner-up finishes in the last 4 races. The team struggled with speed off the hauler but then looked to be back where they needed to be late Saturday. However, the bad news for bettors is that Harvick still presents a high risk/low reward conundrum. If you consider the amount of guys that looked equal or better than the #4, I am just not sure if you can include him on your rosters this week giving his notoriety of “close but no cigar” type finishes.
Outside of the Chevrolet guys, I believe all of the JGR cars deserve attention going into today’s race especially the #11 and #20 machines. Kenseth needs a great run today and he has had one of the best cars since unloading this weekend. Denny Hamlin is a guy that may fly under the radar but I really like him in H2H situations and to possibly still the win. Hamlin has been phenomenal in recent weeks finishing 6th or betting in 7 of the last 8 races including a win at Chicagoland which has very similar characteristics to Kansas. After another quality run last week at Charlotte (4th), I really believe Hamlin could be a guy that pulls of the win this afternoon. If not him, all of his teammates are decent choices but I would definitely list the #20 as the best option considering his speed throughout the weekend.
I know some of you may be wondering “well what about the Penske Racing cars?” After all Logano just won last week at a 1.5 mile track and Keselowski is starting on the pole. All are valid points and I believe both drivers have enough speed to comfortably ride around in the top 10 all day. However, I am just not convinced either driver has a winning race car. Both drivers do have Kansas wins on their resume which boost their stock but I do not believe the #22 nor the #2 were better than some of the other top cars at the end of Happy Hour so it will be interesting to see if they can pick up some more speed once the green flag drops. If you happen to be searching for another sleeper from a H2H or fantasy standpoint, I really like Ryan Blaney’s chances to run well today. He was the only guy outside of the Chase drivers that showed consistent top 10 speed throughout both of Saturday’s sessions. If Blaney is not an option for you, perhaps consider Aric Almirola for the simple fact he has been grinding out quality finishes in recent weeks especially at the 1.5 mile tracks. Good luck to everyone today!
2015 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +1150 (1.5 units): 2012 Kansas winner, won most recently at Chicagoland, has finished 6th or better in 7 of last 8 starts, fastest 10 lap average in practice 2
Martin Truex Jr +950 (1.25 units): led race high 95 laps back in May, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice, looks to have found some of that speed from the Spring when he was contending every week
Jimmie Johnson +800 (1.25 units): 3 time Kansas winner including last May, fastest lap in Happy Hour with best 10 lap average, looking to spoil the Chase party
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +165 wins Kansas Lottery 300
Matt Kenseth/Joey Logano +325 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1540
H2H Matchups and Props
Martin Truex Jr -130 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -125 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Ryan Newman +165 over Kyle Larson (1 unit)
Aric Almirola -170 over Tony Stewart (1 unit)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +360 wins Group C (Larson, Kahne, Gordon, and Newman)
