2015 Goodys 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 1st, 1:15PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series is scheduled for 500 miles today at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500. The key word there is “scheduled” because rain looks like it would be the major story of the afternoon. With rain looking to fall for most of the early afternoon, it will be interesting to see if we get the racing started and then if we are able to get all 500 laps in once the action does start. Once the green flag is dropped, it will mark the start of the Eliminator Round with 8 drivers still alive in the race for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. However and more importantly those 8 drivers will have some competition today in the race for a victory at Martinsville Speedway. Take a look as we preview our 2015 Goodys 500 race picks!
Last week Joey Logano completed the sweep of the Contender Round with his victory at Talladega. Logano will start on the pole for today’s 500 mile race looking to become just the 9th driver to win 4 consecutive races in the modern era and the first person to win 4 races in a row since Jimmie Johnson in 2007. Obviously the odds are against Logano from a simple probability matter and if you agree with the difficulty of consistency of driving around Martinsville. However if you look at Logano’s recent history at Martinsville, he has finishes of 4th, 5th, and 3rd in his last 3 races. Therefore he has been very strong and with his current momentum, he has to be the favorite for today’s event especially starting P1 on the grid.
Among the Chase drivers, I believe Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski may be your biggest threats this afternoon outside of Logano. Gordon’s team just keeps getting better in the Chase and he is simply one of the best to ever race at Martinsville. Gordon has 8 wins with the most recent in this race in 2013. At one time at Martinsville, Gordon recorded 11 straight top 5 finishes at the paperclip from April 2005 to March 2010. I know the #24 has not exactly been competing for wins in recent weeks but I think he has to be on your radar this week especially with the way that team keeps improving. For Brad Keselowski, I just like the #2 team this week. Keselowski finished runner-up back in the spring race and they unloaded really well this weekend. The #2 car was really fast in all practices especially in Happy Hour and I think Keselowski will be a threat this afternoon.
Of course there will be plenty of threats for this afternoon’s race but surprisingly I expect most of today’s biggest threats to come from outside the Chase field. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin are always threats at Martinsville each time they suit up. Johnson’s 8 wins are tied with Gordon for the most among active drivers while Hamlin has 5 wins in just 19 starts with the most recent back in March. The #48 looked very strong throughout practices and paced the field with the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Hamlin did not look as impressive in practice but he did not look bad either. With the way the JGR cars have run this year, I would not expect him to be in the mix at some time as well.
Among other non-Chase drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr looks to be really fast and capable of working his way up through the field from his 22nd starting position. Junior won this race last year and they are capable of contending again this afternoon. If you are trying to fill fantasy rosters, Johnson and Earnhardt would be tantalizing picks due to their poor starting position and chances to bring in some extra points for “place differential.” If you are looking for some other fantasy roster fillers or H2H drivers that could be good in lower tier matchups, I really like both Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman. Newman is doing exactly what he did during last year’s Chase by running well and staying out of trouble. Both the #31 and #1 cars looked pretty good in practice. I believe they both have top 10 potential which should be winners in most matchups they are paired in.
2015 Goody’s 500 Race Picks
Jeff Gordon +525 (1.75 units): 8-time Martinsville winner, making last start, looked excellent in practices, starting 5th and should stay in contention all afternoon
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1150 (1.25 units): defending Goody’s 500 winner, looked really strong in practices including best 10 lap average in practice 2, starting 22nd
Martin Truex Jr +1900 (1 unit): sleeper pick, finished 6th back in March, never been too impressive at Martinsville but looked really good in all practices, starting in a position that would benefit from a rain shortened race
Two Team Parlay
Matt Crafton +350 wins Kroger 200 (Won)
Jimmie Johnson/Joey Logano +295 wins Goody’s 500
To win: +1677
H2H Matchups
Brad Keselowski -120 over Matt Kenseth (3 units)
Kevin Harvick +115 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Danica Patrick -110 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Ryan Newman -155 over Kyle Larson (1 unit)
