2015 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 22nd, 3:16PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The final race of the year will take place this afternoon as the Sprint Cup Series watches the sunset on the 2015 season at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the Ford Ecoboost 400. The majority of this afternoon’s excitement will surround the 4 drivers that will battle it out for 400 miles to decide the Sprint Cup Championship. For Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Jeff Gordon, and Kevin Harvick the task is simple yet grueling. Beat the other 3 drivers and win NASCAR’s great prize in a championship. While we wait to see the outcome for the championship race, there will still be another win to be determined this afternoon in the Ford Ecoboost 400. We take this time to preview today’s race and hope to provide one final winning ticket for 2015. Take a look at our 2015 Ford Ecoboost 400 race picks!
From the championship perspective, I think Kevin Harvick has to be your best bet this afternoon. Not only has Harvick consistently run better than the other 3 competitors fighting for a championship this afternoon but he has also been great at Homestead throughout the years. Harvick has the best average finish (7.57) in the field, he won this race 1 year ago to earn his first championship, and he has posted top 3 finishes in 4 of the last 7 races. If that is not a recipe for confidence this afternoon, I am not sure what else would be. However, both Martin Truex Jr and Jeff Gordon have solid resumes at Homestead with near 10th place average finishes. Gordon won this race in 2012 and has several top 5 finishes over the last several years. The only driver that has not run well at Homestead, among drivers in today’s championship hunt, is Kyle Busch. Busch owns just 1 top 5 finish in 10 career starts and has a disastrous average finishing position of 23.10.
The good news for Busch fans is that history is only 1 part of the equation. The only thing that really matters is how you perform this afternoon and we hope to find the driver that in particular is going to win the 400 mile race this afternoon. From practices on Saturday afternoon in final preparation for today’s Ford Ecoboost 400, I feel like Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kyle Larson really had surprisingly strong practices. Then again it is amazing what momentum can do for you in this sport. Earnhardt won last week’s rain shortened race at Phoenix and he had one of his best final practices of the year from a race trim standpoint. Larson, who won yesterday’s Xfinity Series race at Homestead, had a really strong run in the cup car as well. Larson was fastest in practice 2 and was right there among the leaders in race trim speeds in Happy Hour. I think it would be a bit of a stretch for either the #88 or the #42 to win today’s race especially Larson who has faded on race days. However, both drivers could be used for potential fantasy rosters or H2H matchups.
I think your most legitimate threats for the victory this afternoon will be between the cars of Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano. It does not take much research to see how dominate Logano has been on the 1.5 mile tracks this season especially during the 2nd half of the year. He has never been that great at Homestead but then again that can be said for several tracks he won at already this year. Logano looked really good in the late practice on Saturday and I think he could be a guy to beat. Harvick did not have the greatest final round of practice from a speed standpoint. However, I refuse to think they are “off” considering the way they typically run on 1.5 mile tracks and Homestead in particular. Look for the #4 to be in the thick of things all afternoon.
Outside of those two cars, I think there were encouraging signs from the cars of Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson. Rowdy had plenty of speed and one can only imagine what kind of driving he will do if he is given the chance to be upfront at the end of today’s race. Gordon paced the field in the final practice by a good margin when comparing 10 lap averages. The #24 did not have much falloff. Jimmie Johnson was also pretty strong in practices and I feel like he keeps falling under the radar due to his early exit in the Chase. Johnson stole the win on the last 1.5 mile track at Texas and those 1.5 mile tracks has been the #48 team’s strong point this season. I would not be surprised if the #48 steals the show once more this afternoon in true #48 team fashion.
2015 Goody’s 500 Race Picks
Joey Logano +590 (2 units): won 2 of the last 3 on 1.5 mile tracks, dominate 2nd half of the season, trying to put a final stamp on a breakout season
Jimmie Johnson +1100 (1 unit): most recent 1.5 mile track winner at Texas, been really strong on 1.5 mile tracks all season, looking for first Homestead victory at generous odds
Kurt Busch +2250 (1 unit): sleeper pick, 2002 winner, finished no worse than 7th in last 4 races on 1.5 mile surfaces, looked really strong in race trim
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick +525 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Dale Earnhardt Jr -105 over Carl Edwards
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1639
H2H Matchups
Joey Logano -140 over Matt Kenseth (3 units)
Kurt Busch +135 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -125 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
