2015 Food City 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday August 21st, 7:44PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The NASCAR Xfinity Series will take the green flag for the 2nd leg of this week’s triple header action at Bristol Motor Speedway later tonight at approximately 7:44PM (EST). On Wednesday, the Camping World Truck Series put on a spectacular show to kickoff this week’s racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. Tonight the Xfinity Series will resume the action with the running of the Food City 300 as a prelude to tomorrow night’s infamous IRWIN Tools Night Race. Take a look as we prepare for an exciting night of racing and provide our 2015 Food City 300 race picks!
Earlier today, Xfinity Series teams and drivers participated in the only practice for tonight’s Food City 300. Fast lap times were a bit jumbled considering the amount of teams that made mock qualifying runs at different times during practice and some teams electing to avoid qualifying runs altogether. However, we did get a chance to see how drivers looked in race trim and some expected names stood out amongst the competition. In terms of 10 lap averages, Chris Buescher led the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney who were amongst the top 5. Obviously it is not surprising to see those Sprint Cup drivers standing out over the competition but Buescher’s speed in race trim was a pleasant surprise for the group of Xfinity Series regulars looking to steal a win tonight similar to the way Ryan Blaney won this race one year ago (despite being a part-time Xfinity Series regular).
Blaney also won the Truck Series race on Wednesday giving the young driver some serious momentum headed into tonight’s race. Outside of Blaney’s win in the Food City 300 last year, he also posted a solid 4th place finish in the spring of 2014. Therefore, I think we should start considering Blaney as one of the “better” talents at Bristol despite his rather young experience in any of NASCAR’s top touring series. Among the Sprint Cup favorites in tonight’s field, a supporting case could be made for all drivers suiting up tonight between Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick. Hamlin arguably had the best car in practice, Larson has two runner-up finishes in his 4 Xfinity Series starts at Bristol, Kevin Harvick has 5 wins at Bristol in Xfinity Series competition, and Kyle Busch owns the most wins in Xfinity Series history at Bristol with 7 wins.
Busch actually owns the most wins combined in all of NASCAR’s top touring series with 16 combined victories from Trucks, Xfinity, and Sprint Cup competition. Rowdy is a huge favorite anytime he suits up at Bristol and he will once again be an overwhelming favorite for tonight’s race. The only problem with Busch having such a dominate record at Bristol is that it usually makes it difficult for bettors to find a way to bet Rowdy in a sensible manner. To bet Busch at such low odds, you either have to shorten your roster while increasing your unit size or simply find a way to parlay Busch with another bet to get the best ROI. I would not blame anyone for betting Busch as long as you can do it in the most probable and profitable manner. If you cannot make it work for your betting style, it may be more plausible to find other betting options.
I do think all of the Sprint Cup Series guys are going to be tough to beat tonight. I expect Hamlin and Busch to be the biggest threats for the win. While Hamlin looks really fast, he has still posted just 1 top 5 finish in 7 career starts in the Xfinity Series. Therefore, it remains to be seen just how strong the #20 can last throughout 300 laps of racing. Harvick is always a threat at Bristol but the team did not look too happy with that #88 car in practice. If you throw out Regan Smith’s win at Mid-Ohio last week, JR Motorsports has not performed very well over the last few months in the Xfinity Series which cast some doubt for the #88’s chances tonight. The good news is that Harvick rebounded for a strong qualifying effort and will start 3rd tonight so perhaps the team has made some adjustments that suited the car well.
Outside of the Sprint Cup Series guys, I think the next best threat could be the #60 of Chris Buescher. Buescher has looked really solid and brought the exact same car back to Bristol that finished 3rd back in the spring. If nothing else, consider the #60 for H2H possibilities as I expect him to have another great run tonight. If you are looking for a few other dark horses from an H2H perspective or big long shot, consider guys like Daniel Suarez and Darrell Wallace Jr. Wallace is known for his short track skills and I am sure he will race better than he practiced earlier today. Before posting mediocre finishes at the last two races, both of which were road course tracks, Suarez was one of the hottest names in the series. Back in March, Suarez posted his best finish of his Xfinity Series career and he is another driver that I expect to come to life once the action heats up.
2015 Food City 300 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +335 (2 units): 2nd fastest 10 lap average in practice, looking for 1st Bristol win in the Xfinity Series, both JGR cars look really strong
Kyle Larson +950 (1 unit): early forums pick, two runner-up finishes in 4 Xfinity Series starts at Bristol, should be good on long runs tonight
Chris Buescher +1400 (.5 unit): both wins this season has come on tracks of 1 mile or less, excellent short track driver, finished 3rd back in March at Bristol, fastest 10 lap average in practice, starting 5th
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +200 wins Food City 300
Daniel Suarez +120 over Brian Scott
Risking 1.5 units to win: +840
H2H Match-ups
Chase Elliot -110 over Regan Smith (2 units)
Kyle Larson +125 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
