2015 FedEx 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 31st, 1:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday the Sprint Cup Series will unleash 43 race cars, each carrying more than 725 horsepower, onto Dover International Speedway for 400 laps of racing at the Monster Mile which will be officially known as the FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks. Dover International Speedway has featured plenty of exciting racing already this weekend with exciting finishes in both the Camping World Truck Series Lucas Oil 200 on Friday and in today’s Xfinity Series Buckle Up 200. Both of this weekend’s prior races featured surprise winners with Tyler Reddick on Friday and Chris Buescher earlier today. Will the Monster Mile deliver yet another surprise winner on Sunday? Find out our thoughts along with our 2015 FedEx 400 race picks for Sunday’s final leg of our triple header weekend at Dover.
If history tells us anything about Dover, it is that surprise winners are not necessarily common. In fact, the first thing you need to know when Dover shows up on the Sprint Cup Series schedule is “track history.” In an age of NASCAR where back to back wins are as rare Steph Curry missing a 3 point shot, Dover is an exception to the rule. Among active drivers, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Jimmie Johnson have all scored back to back wins at Dover. In fact, Johnson has scored back to back wins on 3 different occasions and his 9 total victories at Dover is the most all-time. Why are these stats important? Because Dover is a very difficult track for drivers. It is Bristol on steroids and once a driver figures out how to get around this Monster Mile; it typically results in multiple bouts of success. For drivers with multiple wins already or even just 1 Dover victory, history tells us they will be the drivers to watch out for again on Sunday.
Among the drivers that already have a Dover win on their resume, Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards appear to be legitimate threats to contend on Sunday. Dover was site of Truex’s first win back in 2007 and he has only had one victory since. However this season has been sort of a resurrection to Truex’s career as that #78 Furniture Row Racing Chevrolet has been competitive everywhere. Last week, Truex dominated the Coca Cola 600 before his win was stolen by Carl Edwards in a fuel mileage situation. However, Truex must be kept close on radars this week considering the team’s recent performance and Truex’s like for Dover. Both Kenseth and Johnson should also be competitive. Johnson is the undisputed king of Dover and finished Saturday with a pair of strong practices. It is almost blasphemous to not consider Johnson at the Monster Mile and his odds are not terrible
Kenseth and Edwards should also be considered from the group of drivers with previous Dover wins. Kenseth is a two time Dover winner with 32 starts under his belt while Edwards captured a Dover win back in 2007. Edwards has the 3rd best average finishing position among all active drivers and has finished in the top 5 in 8 of his 21 starts. If you consider how strong the entire Joe Gibbs Racing stable has looked since arriving in Dover, both of Edwards and Kenseth’s stocks should be on the rise. Kenseth also won earlier this year at Bristol which is a track that draws a lot of comparisons towards Dover. Remember JGR racing swept both the All-Star Race and Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte so they will be going for their 3rd win in a row when the green flag drops on Sunday.
However the best JGR car in the field may be the #11 of Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is not on the list of previous Dover winners but he has easily had the fastest car since unloading on Friday. Hamlin was 2nd in practice 1 and fastest in both practices on Saturday. Not to mention, Hamlin also won the pole for Sunday’s event and will be starting in the #1 position. Hamlin fits into the JGR power that has been evident this weekend and he currently leads the list of drivers looking to score their first victory at the Monster Mile this weekend.
At this point it appears that it is the Joe Gibbs Racing cars and Jimmie Johnson, then everyone else. From a speed standpoint, no other car has shown the ability to run with those guys especially in race trim. Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch have shown some speed which they do every week. Harvick was really happy with the car following final practice but Dover is 1 of just 2 tracks on the NASCAR circuit where “Happy” has not scored a victory in any of the 3 touring series. The elder Busch captured a Dover win back in October of 2011. However, Busch has not recorded a top 10 finish in the 6 races since that victory which hurts his reliability. Therefore, I am still sticking with my theory of the JGR cars and Jimmie Johnson as the cars with the most likely chance of winning Sunday’s race.
If you are looking for a few guys with some upside especially in H2H match-ups, consider both of the Chip Ganassi Racing cars including Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson. McMurray tested at Dover a few weeks ago and that test has appeared to benefit both teams. Larson posted his best qualifying effort of the season and was one of the better cars in race trim. McMurray also had a solid qualifying effort and was solid in race trim speeds. Therefore both drivers may be worth consideration in H2H scenarios or maybe Larson as a potential dark horse pick considering his two solid runs here last year as a rookie.
2015 FedEx 400 Race Picks
Denny Hamlin +580 (1.5 units): fastest car in practices, starting on pole, lot of recent momentum, looking for first Dover win
Matt Kenseth +1000 (1 unit): two-time Dover winner, two top 5 finishes in 2014, won at similar track style Bristol in March, starting 4th
Kyle Larson +2500 (.5 unit): 6th and 11th place finishes last year as a rookie, one of the strongest cars in long runs in practice, starting 3rd
Winning Parlay
Jimmie Johnson +400 wins FedEx 400
Jeff Gordon -130 over Dale Earnhardt Jr
Risking (1 unit) to win: +820
H2H Match-ups and Props
Jimmie Johnson -190 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Jeff Gordon +130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Paul Menard -115 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
