2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 12th, 7:44PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tonight the Sprint Cup Series goes racing at Richmond International Raceway in the Federated Auto Parts 400 marking the last race before the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. For drivers like Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, and Clint Bowyer, they will need quality runs tonight to clinch their spot in the chase under the presumption there is not a surprise winner. While guys like Kyle Larson, Greg Biffle, and Tony Stewart must get a win or they will be out of this year’s Chase yet again. Obviously there will be a lot of focus on the Chase picture tonight but our focus will be on cashing winning tickets. Take a look as we provide our 2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 race picks!
Regarding the expectations tonight, we feel that a lot of the names that you have seen towards the front in recent races will be at the front yet again tonight. All of the JGR cars looked to have serious speed which definitely plays into the hands of Kyle Busch who has been sensational at Richmond with a 7.35 average finish through his 20 career starts that includes 4 victories. Busch has recorded 13 top 5 finishes in his 20 career starts and is a favorite any time the green flag is dropped at Richmond. Of course all of the JGR cars have shown to be capable throughout the 2nd half of the season. Carl Edwards notched his 2nd win of the season last week with a somewhat upset type win at Darlington and JGR cars have now won 6 of the last 8 races.
Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin have all captured Richmond wins in the past so it would not be surprising to see any of those guys challenge again tonight. Hamlin especially has a really good looking Richmond resume with two victories and 7 top 5s in 18 career starts despite the ACL injury concerns. However, I really believe the #20 car of Matt Kenseth could be the dark horse to keep your eyes on tonight. The #20 looked really good in race trim posting the 2nd best 10 lap average of the weekend behind Brad Keselowski. Kenseth has finished 7th or better in 5 of his last 6 Richmond starts. If you are looking for a reliable fantasy or H2H driver, I think Kenseth is in line for a quality run this evening.
Outside of the Gibbs cars, both the Penske Racing cars of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano had good looking speed. Kevin Harvick was right there with those guys as well as the best options to take the victory away from the JGR group. Logano is the only driver to win during this recent hot streak with JGR as both of this wins have come in the last 4 races. Logano captured his first Richmond victory in the spring of 2014 and has posted quality finishes in each race since. After capturing the pole for tonight’s race, I imagine it is going to take some time before the #22 is passed in the early stages of the Federated Auto Parts 400.
If you looking for the guys with the most value from a betting or H2H standpoint, I think Carl Edwards has to be given attention at 12-1. The way the #19 team’s pit crew come through last week in the clutch and the way Edwards tackled one of the most difficult tracks on circuit has to bring a lot of confidence to the #19 team this week. From matchups and fantasy perspectives, I think guys like Kyle Larson and Paul Menard could be good picks for strong runs tonight. Larson is in a must-win situation and looked pretty solid in practices. Menard does not have to capture a win but would clinch with a 9th place showing or better. The #27 car looked pretty good in race trim and could be a potential grab in low tier matchups. Of course there are some other potential opportunities out there but it is all about creating the most efficient and probable betting card. Take a look at our official 2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 race picks!
2015 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +600 (1.5 units): 2002 winner, looked really good on long runs, sleeper pick of the day, lookout for the #20, starting 2nd
Kyle Busch +750 (1 unit): 4 time Richmond winner, best average finish among active drivers, with the way JGR cars are running, how do you leave him off your Richmond lineup?
Carl Edwards +1300 (1 unit): 2013 Richmond winner, looked really good in race trim in final practice, starting 7th
H2H Matchups and Props
Joey Logano/Brad Keselowski +256 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Austin Dillon -105 over Tony Stewart
Risking 1.5 units to win: +892
H2H Matchups and Props
Carl Edwards +100 over Jimmie Johnson(2.5 units)
Kyle Busch +130 over Brad Keselowski ( 1 unit)
Tony Stewart -145 finishes over 16.5 (1 unit)
