2015 Duck Commander 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 11th, 7:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Sprint Cup Series returns to action today, Saturday night style, under the lights at Texas Motor Speedway in the Duck Commander 500. Through the first 6 races of the season, we have seen 5 different winners in the Cup Series. Going into tonight’s 500 mile event at Texas, there are several drivers that are looking towards earning their first visit to victory lane including drivers like Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. As we prepare for 500 miles of Saturday night action, we wonder if a new face will earn their first victory of the season or if we will have another repeat winner? Take a look as we dive into our Duck Commander 500 race picks!
It nearly goes without saying that Kevin Harvick is the overall favorite for tonight’s race. Harvick has been the favorite all year and you cannot really blame odds makers. “Happy” only has a 2.6 average finishing position through the first 6 races which includes two wins. Until he backs off of his blistering pace, he will be a big favorite every week. Harvick was fast again in practices this weekend but he has also never won in 24 career starts in Texas. The #4 car has a shot to end that streak tonight but I believe the “true” favorites for tonight’s event are over in the Team Penske stable.
I discussed during the off week that I believe Team Penske is currently the team to beat in NASCAR. Both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski had more wins than anyone in 2014 and both drivers already have a win to their resume thus far in 2015. Last April, Joey Logano thrived in a dramatic green-white-checker to score his first Texas Motor Speedway victory. Tonight Logano looks for the repeat win from the 6th place starting position. However, teammate Brad Keselowski may be the bigger threat going into tonight’s race. Keselowski is another driver that has never won at Texas but he has been very close in recent years. Keselowski scored a 3rd place finish back in the fall and a runner-up finish in 2012. The #2 car posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice and we all know “Bad Brad” loves the big stage races like tonight’s primetime event at Texas.
One thing that Team Penske has on their side tonight is the trend of Ford drivers in the spring races at Texas. Ford drivers have won 10 of the 17 spring races at Texas going back to the first race at TMS in 1997. Oddly, Chevrolet drivers have just 4 wins in those 17 spring races at Texas. Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon are the only active drivers to score wins in those races from the Chevrolet brigade. Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson has 4 wins in the fall race at Texas while Kasey Kahne does have a spring victory on his resume coming back in 2006 when he drove the #9 Dodge for Evernham Motorsports. Needless to say, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have a solid resume at Texas and there are indicators pointing to those guys threatening again tonight.
Kasey Kahne had the best practices of any driver through Thursday and Friday. The #5 car was 2nd fastest in practice 1, posted the best 10 lap average in practice 1, and then topped the charts in final practice. Meanwhile Jimmie Johnson posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 1 and was 2nd fastest in final practice. Additionally, Dale Jr showed some speed in practices despite a subpar 25th place qualifying effort. Obviously, practice sessions cannot hold too much weight towards tonight’s event since both sessions were in the daylight with much different track conditions than we will see once the green flag waves tonight. However, it is still hard to completely ignore the speed a few of the Hendrick guys have shown thus far.
If you are looking for some dark horses or just a few guys to consider in race match-ups, considers the stocks for guys like Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr, and Carl Edwards to be considerable. Newman is a big underdog that has a homerun type of potential, Truex Jr was the fastest in practice 1 indicating he could be in line for another solid day like he has most of 2015, and Cousin Carl has 3 wins to his resume at Texas. Edwards is still searching for his first top 10 of the season but Texas provides a good opportunity for the #19 to get a quality finish.
A few guys whose stock is decreasing is Jeff Gordon and Kyle Larson. Gordon is just having a terrible 2015 season and the #24 team was the only car out of the Hendrick stable that did not show any speed in practices. Larson is another guy that some figured would run well this week. However, Larson is another that struggled through practices especially with the handling of the #42 machine and to be honest he has had a very poor start thus far in 2015. At this point, I do not see anything changing from Gordon or Larson going into tonight’s race.
Duck Commander 500 Race Picks
Ryan Newman +5500 (1 unit): 2003 winner, starting 7th, running 5th place Fontana chassis, finishes of 10th and 3rd on the other 1.5 mile tracks this season (Atlanta and Las Vegas)
Brad Keselowski +850 (1.5 units): finishes of 1st and 2nd in last two starts, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice, starting 3rd
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1450: (1 unit): 2000 winner, 5th best in 10 lap averages in practice 1, finishes of 3rd and 4th at Atlanta and Las Vegas this year
Winning Parlay
Jimmie Johnson/Joey Logano +283 wins Duck Commander 500
Jamie McMurray +160 over Kyle Larson
To win:+895
H2H and Prop Bets
David Ragan -115 over Paul Menard (1 unit)
Ryan Newman +145 over Kyle Larson (1 unit)
Matt Kenseth -125 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -115 finishes under 6.5 (1 unit)
