2015 DAV 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 14th, 4:16PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage this afternoon in the valley of the sun when the green flag is waved for the DAV 200 at Phoenix International Raceway. As usual some of the Sprint Cup’s big stars will be in today’s race including the likes of Austin Dillon, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch. With 200 laps of scheduled action ahead, we look forward to a full afternoon of racing and hope to get back to our winning ways. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our 2015 DAV 200 race picks!
On Friday, Kyle Busch posted the fastest lap in final practice with a lap of 135.491mph. Busch will enter today’s race as a rather large favorite which is not the result of the practice speeds alone and rather for the fact that he has amassed 7 victories at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Rowdy won 3 Xfinity Series races in a row at Phoenix from 2013 to the spring race of last year before finishing 2nd to Brad Keselowski in this race one year ago. Busch missed the first Phoenix race earlier this year due to his injuries at Daytona but he is definitely the guy to beat for today’s race despite the abundance of talented competition that will also be competing for the victory.
Outside of Rowdy, I believe your biggest threats to steal the spotlight this afternoon will likely come from the likes of Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, or Erik Jones. Keselowski won this race 1 year ago and will be piloting the #22 car that has won the last two races at Phoenix. However last year’s victory for Keselowski was his first in 16 starts at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. Therefore, Keselowski has not been overly dominate at PIR but we do know he has the ability to put the #22 in victory lane. The thing that concerns me personally with Keselowski is that the #22 did not like great in race trim in final practice. In fact, there speeds were a bit off. I am sure adjustments have been made to get the car better but will it be enough?
Two cars that did look good in race trim were the #20 and #33 machines of Jones and Dillon. Jones was my early forums pick this week at generous 10-1 odds. The youngster scored his first win in the Truck Series at Phoenix and he really likes this track. With so much experience gained this season in the stock cars, I think he could have a breakout day at Phoenix this afternoon. Dillon is another guy that you have to show some attention to each week. It seems Dillon’s win has come as surprises this season but the #33 has run extremely well all season with Dillon behind the wheel. In fact, Dillon has posted 12 top 5 finishes in 18 Xfinity Series starts this season with 4 victories. Riding on the heels of a 4th place finish at Phoenix back in the spring race along with a good looking practice session, Dillon will be in-line for another strong run this afternoon.
As far as the rest of the field is concerned, I think there will be some opportunities in H2H situations. I have not mentioned either Kyle Larson or Kasey Kahne to this point. Both drivers are flying under the radar due to mediocre practices. I personally think Kahne is fade material from a H2H standpoint. He has never been good at Phoenix in either of the top two series and I think he is just filling the seat this week for the #88 team. Kahne has just 1 top 5 finish in 8 career Xfinity Series starts at Phoenix and I believe that trend continues this afternoon. Larson is in a similar boat in terms of lackluster practice times on Friday. I think Larson could potentially run better than the #88 car but I do not see either being a factor in this race.
If you are looking for some H2H warriors, put Ty Dillon at the top of your list. The younger Dillon has finished in the top 10 in each of his 3 starts at Phoenix and he looked to have a fast hotrod in practice as well finishing with the 2nd best 10 lap average. Dillon finished 6th at Phoenix back in the spring race and 4th in this race 1 year ago. I expect him to be one of the guys to run really well again today and should have some strong value in H2H situations. Also, keep Chase Elliot on your radar for H2H purposes today as well. He has always run well at Phoenix and should have some value in this race in lower tier matchups as well.
2015 DAV 200 Race Picks
Erik Jones +1000 (1.5 units): early pick, looking to score 3rd straight Phoenix victory, big play here to get the job done
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +130 wins DAV 200
Slot 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Ty Dillon -160 over Brian Scott (3 units)
Kyle Larson -110 over Kasey Kahne (3 units)
