2015 Crown Royal 400 at the Brickyard Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 26th, 3:49PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday NASCAR’s biggest stars embark on a 400 mile journey at the most infamous racetrack in auto racing in the Crown Royal 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. One year ago Jeff Gordon overcame Kasey Kahne on a late race restart to score his record breaking 5th victory in the Brickyard 400. Tomorrow Gordon will make his last ride at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and hopes for one final kiss of the bricks. However, a full field of Sprint Cup Series talent will be eyeing the same prize when the green flag drops at 3:49PM (EST). Take a look as we prepare for an exciting Indy spectacle and provide our 2015 Crown Royal 400 at the Brickyard race picks.
One of the most important factors entering Sunday’s race is the rule changes that have been put into place for tomorrow’s race. NASCAR installed a new aero package for Sunday’s Crown Royal 400 that included a spoiler that has been raised to 9 inches with a 1 inch wicker bill along with a few other minor changes. The new aero package was put into place to slow the cars top speed down and produce greater drag with the hopes of providing more racing action. Last year track position was everything and anytime a car got out in front in clean air they were nearly impossible to catch. So far this weekend there have been 3 practices and it remains unclear if we will see any “significant” changes in the racing action. Obviously cars are not going as fast as last year’s times that were flirting with a 190mph average lap speed, but it remains to be seen if the slower speeds and increased drag will in fact produce better racing.
One thing that is certain is that you will see a lot of the same infamous racing at Indianapolis on Sunday where teams focus heavily on track position and rely on several different types of strategies to gain and/or maintain track position. Of course the foremost question is who is going to put together the correct formula of car + driver + strategy to find victory lane? Tomorrow’s race at Indy could be one of the hardest races of the year from a handicapping perspective. Each of Friday’s 3 practice sessions had completely new names on top of the speed charts and there were not any cars that truly emerged from the rest of the pack meaning Sunday’s Brickyard 400 trophy is literally up for grabs.
One important trend that has held true throughout NASCAR’s history at the Brickyard is the dominance of Chevrolet powered cars. In fact, team Chevy has won 12 straight races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and 16 of 21 races all-time. A few of the prime candidates from the Chevrolet camp this week include Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and perhaps Kyle Larson. Harvick and Johnson appeared to have really strong rides throughout Friday’s practices. Johnson is a 4-time Indianapolis winner and considering how the #48 team quickly adapts to rules changes; they could be one of the main cars to beat on Sunday along with the #4.
Kasey Kahne led a race high 70 laps in this race one year ago and was in position for the victory before being beaten by Gordon on a restart with 18 laps to go. Kahne was 3rd in practice 2 and posted the best 10 lap average in the final session. Meanwhile Kyle Larson was the only driver to post top 5 times in both of the final two practice sessions. Larson and the #42 team worked hard on their race trim setup and it will be interesting to see how the #42 car performs once the green flag drops. We have seen some fast speeds in practice from Larson in recent weeks but the team has not had the finishes to show for it. Sunday should present a golden opportunity for Larson and the #42 team to have one of their better runs of the season.
If there is any car that is going to end the Chevrolet streak, it is probably going to be one of the Toyota’s from Joe Gibbs Racing. The JGR cars have been really solid in recent weeks and Kyle Busch has been on an absolute tear winning 3 of the last 4 races. Busch has never won the Brickyard 400 but has a ton of momentum going into this Sunday’s race. The #18 looked to have solid speed yet again this week but the team was struggling with the balance on the car. If the team hits the changes right, they could easily be a factor yet again. Busch’s teammate Carl Edwards won the pole for tomorrow’s event and will lead the field to the green as additional support for the JGR engines. Edwards appeared to have solid speed but let’s not forget that he has just 1 top 5 finish in 10 career starts at the Brickyard. Therefore, Edwards is going to have to prove that he can get the job done in the race on Sunday before we hyper react to his pole winning run.
Like we said before, Sunday’s race is going to be very difficult to predict. A lot of guys that we have not even mentioned have the talent and potential to win tomorrow’s race especially if they get out front at the right point in the race. If you are looking for a few guys that could be solid dark horses to win Sunday’s Crown Royal 400 that we have not already mentioned, possibly take a look at Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin Truex Jr. Truex has been one of the best cars on the big horsepower tracks this year and scored a victory at Pocono in June. Pocono is one of the most closely related tracks in comparison to Indianapolis so the comparison holds value. With that being said, we all know that Dale Earnhardt Jr has had a lot of success at Pocono in recent years. Junior conquered all drivers on speed in practice 2 and this is a team that has been performing in recent weeks as well. The #88 has finishes of 2nd, 7th, 1st, 21st, and 5th in the last 5 races and tomorrow’s race at Indy could be another opportunity for a really strong run.
2015 Crown Royal 400 at the Brickyard Race Picks
Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit): running really well past two weeks, #2 team has a history of being streaky, looked really good on long runs
Kasey Kahne +2500(1 unit): 3rd and 6th place finishes last two years, led race high 70 laps last year, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, got some work to do starting towards back
Jamie McMurray +4000 (.5 unit): 2010 Brickyard winner, 3rd best 10 lap average in final practice, starting 10th and Chip Ganassi cars look strong
2-Team Parlay
Jimmie Johnson +530 wins Crown Royal 400
Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 over Matt Kenseth
Risking 1 unit to win: +1015
H2H Match-ups and Props
Kasey Kahne +100 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Kyle Larson +120 over Carl Edwards (2 units)
Tony Stewart -130 (early week forums pick) over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
