2015 CampingWorld.com 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 25th, 2:30PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today the second round of the Chase will conclude with the running of the CampingWorld.com 500 at the always unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway. Several big names will be trying to salvage their Chase hopes today including the likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr and Matt Kenseth who basically need victories to advance. However in reality anything can happen at Talladega. When will the big one happen? Who will it happen to? Which Chase drivers will be caught up in accidents? All of those questions will be at the forefront of the high-speed restrictor action today. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our 2015 CampingWorld.com 500 race picks!
Outside of the Chase storylines and our focus towards predicting a winner for today’s race, it will also be great to see Jeff Gordon start this race from the pole this afternoon in his final ride at Talladega. Gordon is a 6 time winner at Talladega which is tied with teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr for the most among active drivers. Speaking of Dale Earnhardt Jr, he has won the last two restrictor plate races in the GEICO 500 at Talladega back in May and then the Coke Zero 400 in July at Daytona. Earnhardt has been extremely dominate this year in these restrictor plate races which is a large reason that he is the overall favorite for today’s running of the CampingWorld.com 500.
If you are going to start putting together a betting roster or fantasy lineup, I believe you have to put Earnhardt at the top of your list especially with the added fact he needs a win today to advance. Earnhardt’s betting odds may be low for a superspeedway but you may still want to find a way in incorporate the driver of the #88 into your strategy. All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars looked really good in single car speed and all 4 cars are starting in the top 5. I know single car speed does not normally mean a lot in these races as the draft changes things when it comes to race conditions. However, these Hendrick cars have been really strong all year at the restrictor plate tracks giving extra value for today’s race to Gordon, Earnhardt, Jimmie Johnson, and Kasey Kahne.
A few other guys that I believe demand respect today include Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski. Kenseth has almost been too good not to advance to the next round of the Chase but consecutive weeks of bad luck have the #20 team in a must-win situation. Kenseth was the only driver to break up the Hendrick brigade in qualifying as he put the #20 machine in the 4th starting position. Kenseth posted a 2nd place finish in this race 1 year ago and I believe he will be in contention all afternoon. Brad Keselowski is a guy that you have to mention when Talladega rolls around as well. Keselowski scored a victory in a similar must-win situation in this race 1 year ago and has 3 career victories at Talladega in just 13 career starts. The #2 team does not need a victory to advance this afternoon but given Bad Brad’s knack for finding the front at Talladega that possibility is definitely not out of the equation.
Of course in reality we could go through the entire field and list reasons why drivers could potentially score a victory because Talladega simply brings that type of opportunity. However while it is possible for a driver to score an upset win, it does not happen as often as advertised. Still in the instance we do see a surprise winner this afternoon, I would put the names of Clint Bowyer, Paul Menard, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr as potential candidates to accomplish an upset bid. I believe all 3 of those drivers also have a lot of value in fantasy value as well. Two of Bowyer’s 8 career victories have come at Talladega and he has finished 3rd in two of the last 3 races at Dega. Paul Menard has posted nothing but quality finishes in recent trips to Alabama with 3 top 6 finishes in the last 4 races. Stenhouse is another guy that has impressed with solid showings at the restrictor plate tracks despite not doing anything on any other tracks. If there is a chance for the #17 to score a quality finish, it will be this afternoon.
From a betting standpoint, today’s race is all about opportunity. With so many variables accompanying restrictor plate racing, we like to stay away from matchups that can be determined by a simple wreck that is bound to happen. Instead we put a few more units towards probable drivers that have a chance to winning in hopes for a bigger payday. Therefore we have dialed back our H2H betting actions due to those variables and put an extra couple of units on futures in hopes to play this probability thing to perfection. Considering all of the factors, we hope that our card brings together a winning afternoon. Check out our 2015 CampingWorld.com 500 race picks for the closing race in the 2nd round of the Chase.
2015 CampingWorld.com 500 Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +700 (1.5 units): 2012 winner, finished 2nd in this race last year, needs a win to advance and has the car to get it done
Jimmie Johnson +850 (1.5 units): finished 2nd in last two restrictor plate races to the #88, could be his turn today with another really fast restrictor plate ride, two-time Talladega winner, starting 3rd
Denny Hamlin +1150 (1 unit): has turned into a very solid restrictor plate racer recently, won at Talladega in May of 2014, also posted top 5 finishes in both Daytona races this year
Paul Menard +5000 (.5 unit): solid finishes in recent Talladega races, looks to have another competitive #27 machine that can stay towards the front
Ryan Blaney +5500 (.5 unit): finished 4th in May race, another homerun pick
Top 3 Finish
Clint Bowyer +1200 (.5 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1600 (.5 unit
Martin Truex Jr +950 (.5 unit)
