2015 Bank of America 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 10th, 7:21PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first race of the Contender Round in the Chase for the Sprint Cup will see the green flag wave later this evening at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Bank of America 500. The green flag is expected to wave tonight at approximately 7:21PM (EST) to start 500 miles of action at the home of NASCAR in Charlotte. However, Mother Nature is threatening to change our plans as rain is expected in the area for most of the day. Whether we go racing tonight or tomorrow, the track is definitely going to be much different than the conditions were throughout practices making this a very interesting race to handicap. Take a look as we provide our thoughts and deliver our 2015 Bank of America 500 race picks!
Back in May at the Coca Cola 600, Carl Edwards stole a victory from Martin Truex Jr in a race that was determined by fuel strategy. Fuel mileage has played a factor a bit more often than expected at Charlotte but that has almost always been in the Coca Cola 600. Tonight’s race will likely be determined by the team and driver that can nail their setup, keep ahead of the adjustments on the track, and make the right calls throughout the night just as Kevin Harvick and the #4 team did in this race 1 year ago. Track conditions especially should go through some significant changes through the course of 500 miles considering rain has washed away all rubber that was previously put down. Therefore expect the track to change quite a bit as more rubber is laid down through the course of the race and watch for the high groove to come in during the 2nd half of the race as a result. In recent races at Charlotte, we have seen a few guys perfect the “rim riding” strategy and I would expect drivers to move towards the wall during the latter stages of the race.
From a predictions standpoint, this Bank of America 500 is sort of an enigma. Nobody separated their selves as the overwhelming favorite in practice but rather we had several cars that were very close in terms of speed. Both the Busch brothers looked good. Younger brother Kyle finished with the fastest lap in final practice and older brother Kurt had the fastest 10 lap averages in both of Friday’s practices. Surprisingly Kyle Busch has never visited victory lane at Charlotte Motor Speedway despite 6 top 5 finishes in the last 10 races and a pair of runner-up finishes in his 23 starts. At least older brother Kurt has tasted victory lane at Charlotte back in May of 2010 in the Coca Cola 600. Since then the elder Busch’s best finish was 3rd back in the 2013 Coca Cola 600. Due to the speeds that both the #18 and #41 showed yesterday in practice, a lot of people are expecting both drivers to contend for the victory.
However, I would like to reiterate the fact that nobody was overwhelmingly strong in practice as the top 8 cars were pretty even in terms of lap times. Therefore track position and making the correct calls on pit road are going to be inevitably important in the late stages of the Bank of America 500. I believe we could easily see a somewhat “unexpected” driver in victory lane whenever that may be. I believe guys like Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and Joey Logano are slated for strong showings once the green flag drops. Hamlin has been really consistent at Charlotte finishing in the top 10 in 9 of his last 10 starts including the All-Star Races. Speaking of the All-Star race, remember the #11 won it back in May and he has been running really well on the 1.5 mile tracks. Expect that team to make some noise this evening once again.
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Joey Logano are two guys that many people have not mentioned but I feel like need to be given some attention whether you are looking at dark horses, H2H matchups, or fantasy rosters. Earnhardt has run well at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and I think that team built some confidence with their efforts last week at Dover. In practice, the #88 showed really good race trim speed with little fall off. In regards to the #22, you will not see Logano’s name stand out on the stat sheets as they looked pretty average in terms of single lap and average speed. However, the #22 team did come on really strong at the end of practice as well as teammate Brad Keselowski. Therefore I would not overlook the Penske Racing machines tonight especially the #22 car.
Speaking of guys that closed out practice on a strong note. I thought Kevin Harvick looked wicked fast at the end of happy hour. Of course Harvick is really strong every week on speed but, due to his rather mediocre qualifying run, his odds are not too ridiculously overpriced. I like Harvick at Charlotte because he can also run the high line, that typically comes in late in the race, as well as any driver in the field. Even if the #4 is not quite where they want to be on setup, Harvick typically gets the best of his piece at Charlotte. Outside of the drivers that we spoke about previously, you have to give credit to the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth. How much those drivers will be a factor in tonight’s race is a big question? Kenseth has really been in a groove recently and he will be starting from the pole while Johnson will look to revenge his early exit from the Chase at a track where he has dominated with 7 career victories.
If you are not sure about who to bet for the victory tonight and are not planning to tail our future picks, I will go ahead and state that tonight’s race has plenty of valuable H2H matchups. I am typically very picky with H2H matchups but I believe there are several that have some advantages for tonight’s race. For that reason, I will have more units in play tonight than normal with extra activity on the matchups. Take a look at our picks below so that you can get in on the action and come out with some winners by the time the checker flag waves!
2015 Bank of America 500 Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +675 (1.5 units): 4 wins in last 9 races, starting on pole, looked really good throughout all practices, finished 4th in the 600
Joey Logano +1050 (1 unit): best average finishing position among active drivers, 4th in this race last year, should be good on long runs
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2300 (1 unit): really like this #88 as a dark horse tonight, has run well on 1.5 mile tracks, looked really solid in practice on both low and high side
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick +450 wins Bank of America 500
Kurt Busch -165 over Martin Truex Jr
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1175
H2H Matchup
Dale Earnhardt Jr -140 over Jeff Gordon (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Kasey Kahne -125 over Jeff Gordon (1 unit)
Clint Bowyer -140 over Tony Stewart (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +110 over Austin Dillon (1 unit)
