2015 Axalta 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 7th, 1:19PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday the Sprint Cup Series will tackle Pocono Raceway, aka the Tricky Triangle, when the green flag drops for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400. Ironically the ‘Tricky Triangle’ has become even trickier since last year. The northeast region of the United States suffered a harsh winter which has caused some weathering effects at Pocono Raceway. Drivers have talked about it all week as the tunnel turn has developed brutal bumps that is causing drivers a lot of problems. Will the track’s condition make way for even better racing? Last year’s Pocono races provided some great finishes and we can only hope for the same in tomorrow’s Axalta 400. Take a look at our race preview and 2015 Axalta 400 race picks!
Last year Dale Earnhardt Jr swept both of the Pocono races and extended Hendrick Motorsports reign of terror at Pocono to 5 straight victories. Not only has Hendrick Motorsports been great at Pocono in recent years but Chevrolet horsepower has really shined as well. One of the stats that you may not notice when browsing previous Pocono races is the number of Chevrolet drivers that have dominated the top finishing positions. In 2014 if you take the top 10 positions from both Pocono races, Chevrolet powered cars occupied 14 of the 20 spots. Go back to the last Pocono race in 2013, Chevrolet drivers occupied the entire top 5 finishing positions. The trend of Chevrolet drivers finishing strong at Pocono is not a coincidence because their horsepower is evident each year at the Tricky Triangle just as it has been thus far this weekend again. For reasons we will not get into for time’s sake, Chevrolet power has been ahead of the curve at places like Pocono and it would be smart to have a lot of Chevrolet’s on your betting card or fantasy lineup for Sunday’s Axalta 400.
As far as the contender’s for Sunday’s Axalta 400, there are several drivers that could end up in victory lane. One of the unique things about Pocono is that you really have to get the car’s setup in a balanced position. The car is not going to be perfect due to the vast differences between all 3 turns but if you can get your car in a balanced state to where it is good in all 3 turns then you will be ahead of the competition. However it is very hard to get a car and driver on the same page at Pocono and for that reason we have seen a lot of different winners over the last several years. On Sunday, Dale Earnhardt Jr will look to become just the 3rd person in Sprint Cup Series history to win 3 straight races at Pocono. Earnhardt has not been running exceptionally well in the last few weeks but he had a pair of really solid practices on Saturday and you can tell he has a lot of confidence at Pocono. Therefore it would not be surprising at all to the see the #88 at the front of the field and possibly even contend for that 3rd straight victory. American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown on Saturday at Belmont could Dale Earnhardt Jr complete the Pocono version of the Triple Crown on Sunday?
If practices were any indicator of what we should expect on Sunday, then Kevin Harvick could be in a league of his own. Harvick’s car was extremely dominate in race trim on Saturday besting the field by a near full 1 mph per lap. Pocono is one of the few tracks on circuit where Harvick has not won in his career. If you remember back to the August race last year, Harvick was running down Dale Earnhardt Jr in the final laps but he ran out of time resulting in a 2nd place finish. Therefore Harvick has proved in recent conditions he has the talent to get around the Tricky Triangle and I think that he will be a big factor in tomorrow’s Axalta 400 barring any misfortunes.
Outside of Harvick and Earnhardt, there is a big group of cars that seem to be pretty solid right behind those two machines. That group includes the likes of Carl Edwards, Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin. Larson had the best practices possibly of his season but can his speeds be trusted? Kurt Busch, the pole winner, looks solid and he led a bunch of laps here last August. Edwards showed a lot of speed in the #19 machine and he is a two time Pocono winner and his teammate Denny Hamlin continued his momentum over the last few weeks with a lot speed in the #11 car as well. Hamlin is a 4 time winner at Pocono which is the 2nd most among active drivers behind Jeff Gordon. That entire group of cars seemed to be really close to each other in terms of competition and if anything should present exciting race tomorrow afternoon.
It’s hard to predict which cars out of those previously mentioned will be the best on Sunday. Although, Edwards and Larson have seemingly gotten worse as races have progressed this season. Therefore I am not sure they will be able to sustain the speed in those race cars based off recent performances. Kurt Busch is a guy I think could be a true dark horse on Sunday and keep it together all 400 miles. Meanwhile a guy like Denny Hamlin is a true X factor. It is all about getting the best value from your picks in those 2nd tier drivers and finding the right match-ups to possibly steal a few units as well. I think guys like Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch may have some value in match-ups. Meanwhile guys like Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, and Jimmie Johnson may be fade worthy. Good luck to everyone!
2015 FedEx 400 Race Picks
Martin Truex Jr +1650 (1 unit): early forums pick, led most laps of all drivers in last 3 races, qualified 3rd, and was really happy with the changes in the car in Saturday’s practices
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1075 (1 unit): won last two Pocono races, looked really strong in race trim in Saturday practices, appears to be best of Hendrick group
Carl Edwards +1400 (.5 unit): cover play due to speed shown in practices and two-time Pocono winner, looking to end recent Pocono struggles that may have been more of an equipment issue than driver issue
Parlay
Kevin Harvick +370 wins Axalta 400
Ryan Newman finishing position under 16.5
Risking 1 unit to win: +780
H2H Match-ups and Props
Kyle Busch -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Kurt Busch -110 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -125 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
Ryan Newman +110 over Jamie McMurray (1 unit)
