2015 AAA 500 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 8th, 2:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series returns to Texas Motor Speedway tomorrow afternoon for the running of the AAA 500 marking the 2nd race in the Eliminator Round for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Last week’s opening race in the Eliminator Round was full of chaos and controversy as several Chase drivers found trouble at Martinsville. Now guys like Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, and Joey Logano who won all 3 races in the Contender round are in serious jeopardy of falling out of the championship picture prior to Homestead. Tomorrow things are bound to get even crazier as the race for the championship continues. To add a little more spice to the equation, rain washed out both of Saturday’s practices leaving a level of uncertainty going into Sunday’s 500 mile race. However, we still believe we can put together a winning ticket so check out our 2015 AAA 500 race picks!
Obviously many eyes will be on Joey Logano tomorrow afternoon as he tries to overcome last week’s incident with Matt Kenseth. Logano won all 3 races in the Contender Round of the Chase which included two races on 1.5 mile tracks in Kansas and Charlotte. Charlotte and Texas are nearly identical in layout despite some surface differences and Logano has been great at both of those tracks in recent years. Tomorrow the #22 team faces a situation where they may need a victory to be able to make it to Homestead with their championship hopes intact. Luckily, the team has been at their best and Texas should provide a premier opportunity to get back to victory lane. If you look at Logano’s recent finishes at Texas including the victory last year and combine that with the way the #22 has been running, then they have to be the favorite going into tomorrow’s race.
Logano’s teammate Brad Keselowski will start on the pole for tomorrow’s race. Keselowski has not run at the level the #22 team has in recent weeks but he has been consistently inside the top 10. Keselowski has stated that the team has been struggling in race trim and they have been searching for answers with the fall off in their setups. The team has shown some improvements and it will be interesting to see how long they can stay out front tomorrow afternoon. Outside of Team Penske, I believe this race is completely wide open. There are several names that could easily contend tomorrow afternoon. Jimmie Johnson won the spring race and has been good on the 1.5 mile tracks all season. Kevin Harvick has posted two straight runner-up finishes at Texas and has also been really strong on the 1.5 mile tracks. Meanwhile some of the guys from the JGR camp have some value again this week as well especially in the likes of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin.
The better question is who should we expect to shine tomorrow afternoon despite little analytical data to go by from the absence of practices? I think you have to put Harvick at the top of the list behind Logano simply for the fact he has been excellent on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Harvick scored a win at Las Vegas and posted runner-up finishes at Atlanta, Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte. As I stated in the Xfinity Series preview, I really like Harvick’s driving style on abrasive surfaces. Texas Motor Speedway has become quite evil on tire wear meaning guys will really have to focus on protecting their tires and they will continuously have to search for grip all afternoon. Several drivers excel at that type of driving style and Harvick is one of the best in that select group.
A few guys that I believe will benefit from Texas’s abrasiveness and multi-groove surface will be sleeper picks like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch. I know Busch is not really a sleeper pick but he has not really been talked about much during the Chase. He was one of the drivers that ran into trouble last week at Martinsville and needs a great run on Sunday. Busch’s Texas resume and driving style are perfect indicators that he should run well tomorrow afternoon. JGR cars have not lacked any speed throughout the 2nd half of the season and Busch has finished 4th or better (2013 win) in 4 of his last 5 starts at TMS. Therefore I really expect the #18 to be in the thick of things as the AAA 500 winds down Sunday afternoon.
Kyle Larson had a lot of speed in his #42 car on Friday from practice into qualifying. Larson is another guy that excels at tracks where you have to continuously search for grip and he was well on his way to a victory in the Xfinity Series race earlier today before a blown tire ruined those plans. I believe Larson has dark horse potential but may be more useful in H2H situations. Speaking of H2H matchups, keep both Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr on your radars for matchup situations. Earnhardt has been strong on the 1.5 mile tracks this season and he really likes racing at Texas where he has posted several strong showings in his last few starts. Newman should be found in lower tier matchups but he keeps putting the #31 car in positions for quality finishes. Similar to the way he nearly stole the championship in 2014, Newman is doing everything he needs to get quality finishes and that is all you can ask for from a guy that should be paired against lower tier competitors.
2015 AAA 500 Race Picks
Joey Logano +450 (2 units): won last two 1.5 mile races, 2014 winner, needs a win to get back into the championship hunt and has been dominate over last several weeks
Denny Hamlin +1400 (1.25 units): two-time Texas winner, finished 4th or better in last 4 races on 1.5 mile tracks, starting 9th
Erik Jones +10000 (.5 unit): Home-run play, making 2nd career start in place for suspended Matt Kenseth, won first Xfinity Series race at Texas and was able to run inside the top 10 most of the Kansas race during his first start before a late wreck, at 100-1 odds why not?
Two Team Parlays
Kevin Harvick +450 wins AAA 500
Kyle Larson +120 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1 unit to win: +1110
Kyle Busch +660 wins AAA 500
AJ Allmendinger +150 over Aric Almirola
Risking .5 unit to win: +900
H2H Matchups and Props
Joey Logano -125 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +110 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Carl Edwards (2 units)
Greg Biffle -110 over Clint Bowyer (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +170 finishes top 5 (1 unit)
