2015 AAA 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 4th, 2:45PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The final race in the opening round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup will go down this afternoon when the Sprint Cup Series goes racing at Dover International Speedway in the AAA 400. Once the checkered flag waves this afternoon, 4 drivers will be eliminated from Chase contention. Most surprisingly, defending 2014 Sprint Cup Champion, Kevin Harvick is the driver that appears to be in a must-win situation to advance based on his troubles at Chicagoland and Loudon. Take a look as we preview Harvick’s chances to win today’s race along with the rest of our betting targets with our 2015 AAA 400 race picks!
Most of the prerace festivities this week were either shortened or cancelled due to rain. Practice 1 and qualifying were cancelled on Friday and then rain shortened final practice yesterday. Even with the shortened on-track time, Kevin Harvick still managed to find his way to the top of the leaderboards ending final practice in the #1 spot with a lap of 156.033mph. It was another glimpse of how solid the #4 team has been in recent weeks despite the troubles. Harvick dominated practices last week and ultimately dominated the race to lead 216 of the 300 laps. It was not until the #4 ran out of gas in the closing laps that he found trouble. Today it could be a question of whether bad luck continues because we know the #4 is good enough to win.
Along with Harvick I think everyone has to put the #48 at the top of their list as well. Jimmie Johnson has won 3 of the last 5 races and holds the most wins all-time at Dover with 10 victories. Those 10 victories are the most that Johnson has at any specific track. The #48 has not exactly been overly impressive on the speed charts this week but I think that should be given little consideration due to how dominate he has been in recent races at Dover. Of course for either Johnson or Harvick to win, they are going to have to put an end to the JGR win streak. JGR drivers have won both of the first two races and have now won 9 of the last 11 races. The recent dominance from the JGR camp has been one of the most dominate we have seen out of a single team in recent memory and they will have a chance to sweep the entire opening round of the Chase if they can capture another victory this afternoon.
JGR teammates Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards also had noticeable speed. Hamlin who is already locked into the next round of the Chase thanks to last week’s win in Chicago, appeared to have a top 5 ride throughout final practice. However, Edwards and the #19 team have had the fastest car thus far this weekend. Edwards was fastest in the first two practices, won the pole, and also posted the best 10 lap average in final practice as well. Edwards has never been too great at Loudon in the past but we have been keeping track of the #19 team’s progression in recent weeks. All of the JGR cars have shown the most speed in the Sprint Cup Series over this summer but Edwards has been the guy that has really come on strong as of late. I am not convinced Edwards will win on Sunday as he seems to always let me down in these situations. However, it would be hard to argue against the fact that he has the fastest car going into Sunday and this will be an ideal situation for the #19 team to get another victory.
JGR drivers have a pretty solid resume at Dover as well with 5 wins total between Edwards, Kenseth, and Busch. Hamlin is the only driver without a win and his resume at Dover is not particularly strong with a 19.26 average finish through his 19 career starts. However, Dover happens to be one of Carl Edwards’ best tracks statistically. The driver of the #19 has an average finish of 10.64 through his 22 career starts which is 2nd among active drivers with at least 5 starts. The #19 was one of the cars that stood out to me in practice as they were really quick in opening laps and did not fall off too bad. I expect the #19 to stay at the front this afternoon and possibly be the best of the JGR cars.
A few other guys that may have some potential value in H2H situations or fantasy rosters are the likes of Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt needs a really strong run this afternoon along with some other things to go his way to advance and the #88 has looked good on speed thus far throughout the weekend. Along with Earnhardt, Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kasey Kahne also surprised people with his speed throughout the shortened sessions. Kahne arguably had his best practices of the season winning practice 1 and finishing with the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice. I would not expect Kahne to win today’s race by any means but he could be a nice grab in lower H2H matchups or fantasy rosters.
2015 AAA 400 Race Picks
Kevin Harvick +450 (2 units): led most laps and finished 2nd in May race, desperate team with the speed to win. I believe the #4 finds a way
Carl Edwards +900 (1 unit): 2nd best average finish among active drivers with more than 5 starts, 2007 winner and riding wave of the JGR momentum
Brad Keselowski +1350 (1 unit): two runner-up finishes in the last 3 races, very solid in both practices
Two Team Parlay
Jimmie Johnson +450 wins AAA 400
Brad Keselowski -115 over Denny Hamlin
Risking 1 unit to win: +925
H2H Matchups and Props
Carl Edwards -105 over Denny Hamlin (4 units)
Kasey Kahne +120 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Austin Dillon +110 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
