2015 5-Hour Energy 301 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 19th, 1:45PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Just 8 races remain before the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup meaning time is running out for drivers, that are winless, to score a victory to secure their spot in the Chase. Tomorrow another opportunity awaits several of those winless drivers like Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson and others when the green flag is waved for the 5-Hour Energy 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. One of the other major storylines that will be on full focus Sunday includes Kyle Busch who is trying to narrow the gap on the top 30 in points position. Busch missed several months of racing due to an injury back at Daytona but captured his 2nd win of the season last week at Kansas meaning he just has to get inside the top 30 in points to secure his spot in the Chase. We will be sure to keep an eye on Rowdy and others as we look forward to racing in Loudon. Take a look at our 2015 5-Hour Energy 301 race picks and preview!
Tomorrow’s race in Loudon will open the door for several drivers to score their first win of the season as we alluded to previous. Both Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman have 3 wins (tied for most among active drivers) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and would love to add a 4th checkered flag on Sunday to secure a Chase spot. Meanwhile guys like Kyle Larson and teammate Jamie McMurray have similar ambitions for Sunday. Both Chip Ganassi cars ran really well at NHMS in 2014 and have been rock solid throughout practices so far this weekend. Larson posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd in Loudon last season as a rookie and this appears to be one of his best tracks so far through his young career. The problem is neither Gordon, McMurray, Newman, nor Larson have any momentum going into this weekend causing concerns towards their realistic chances. The only good news to that point of view is that NHMS has produced several upset style winners over the last few years like Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, and Brian Vickers.
As far as what we have noticed thus far this weekend, Carl Edwards has been the class of the field. Edwards won the pole for the 5-Hour Energy 301 on Friday then backed that up with a pair of really strong runs in practice sessions on Saturday. Edwards finished final practice with the fastest lap of the day and was also leading all competitors on 10 lap averages which is one of the biggest indicators of race trim. Outside of Edwards, it appeared that Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin were all in the ballpark. Harvick finished on top of the board in practice 2 and was 3rd quickest in the final session. Meanwhile Edwards’ teammates from Joe Gibbs Racing in Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch both looked really good on long runs. In the last few months we have seen a lot of improvement from the Joe Gibbs Racing group and now they are starting to flex their muscles every week from the time they unload. Expect all of those cars to be strong on Sunday.
The only thing about practice speeds is that you never want to get too caught up in sessions alone. A lot can change over the course of 300 miles and tomorrow’s weather conditions could change a lot of things as well. Sunday’s forecast predicts sunny weather and the hottest weather conditions team have seen all week. Therefore, expect the track to lose a lot of grip as teams fight to keep up with the track. Under those pretenses, I think it will favor guys like Denny Hamlin and possibly bring the #48 of Jimmie Johnson into the picture. Both driver’s smooth driving style are good for a slick flat surface like New Hampshire. Johnson struggled a bit over the bumps in turns 3 and 4 during final practice but I still think the #48 will make a move towards the front when the green waves on Sunday. Hamlin on the other hand was already really strong in practice and we predict track conditions could make him an even bigger threat once the racing is underway on Sunday.
Outside of the guys that could threaten to win tomorrow’s race, most bettors and fantasy owners always like to seek dark horses whether it is for a betting matchup or just a guy with a low salary cap that could boost your fantasy lineup. If you are looking for a few guys to keep on your radar for those reasons, take a look at guys like Tony Stewart, Austin Dillon, and possibly Ryan Blaney. Stewart is far from the championship form that we are accustomed to with Smoke. However, Stewart has 3 wins at New Hampshire and had a really strong run in this race one year ago with a 7th place showing. Stewart was decent in race trim and he may have some value in lower tier matchups. The same can be said for both Ryan Blaney and Austin Dillon. Both drivers are starting mid-pace but are capable of quality finishes on Sunday.
2015 5-Hour Energy 301 Race Picks
Kyle Busch +550 (1.5 units): won 2 of the last 3, looks like one of the cars to beat again, 3 runner-up finishes at Loudon in last 4 races, starting 4th
Kevin Harvick +700: (1 unit): strong in both of Saturday’s practice sessions, 2006 winner, runs well on similar flat surfaces, 3rd place finish last time out
Denny Hamlin +900: (1 unit): two-time Loudon winner with last coming in 2012, JGR cars look really strong, expecting track conditions to play into #11 car favor
Jimmie Johnson +1150 (1 unit): 3-time Loudon winner with the last coming in 2010, 2nd in practice 2, if they make right adjustments, look out
H2H Match-ups and Props
Kyle Larson -115 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -125 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +110 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
Tony Stewart +120 over Greg Biffle (1 unit)
Carl Edwards +225 wins Group C (Earnhardt Jr, Kahne, Larson, and McMurray)
