2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Picks

2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Picks

By: NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Brad Keselowski’s win last week in the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway was the official curtain call for the 2014 NASCAR ‘regular season.’ While Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle solidified the final two spots that were available in the Chase, it was Brad Keselowski who stamped his mark on the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship by earning his 4th victory of the year and earning the #1 seed in the Chase. With the grid for the Chase now set for the final 10 races of the season, we take a look at the odds surrounding the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship and identify some of the drivers that looked poised to make a run at the title. Take a look at our 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Picks:

For those that are unfamiliar with the way the Chase for the Sprint Cup works, let’s first make sure everyone understands how the 2014 format will unfold. As seen above, each driver’s points are reset to 2,000 points with 3 bonus points for each win. Due to Brad Keselowski’s season high 4 victories, he holds the top spot and the #1 seeding for the Chase. Still, just 12 points separate Keselowski from the drivers that made it into the Chase on points alone which can be easily overcome over the course of 10 races. Therefore at least at this point, anyone can theoretically win the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship. Now let’s look at the 2014 format for the Chase.

2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Format

Round 1 (3 races): Chicagoland, New Hampshire, and Dover
Round 2 (3 races): Kansas, Charlotte, Talladega
Round 3 (3 races): Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Championship: Homestead

The 2014 Sprint Cup Championship consist of 3 rounds before the final drive for the Championship at Homestead. The first 3 rounds are broken down in 3 race segments with 4 drivers being eliminated at the end of each round. For Chase drivers a win guarantees a spot into the next round, then the rest of the spots are based on points scored during those 3 races. At the end of round 1, points will be reset to 3,000 for the 12 drivers that advance. At the end of round 2, points will be reset to 4,000 for the 8 drivers that advance. At the end of round 3, points will be reset to 5,000 for the final four drivers remaining in the Chase. When the Sprint Cup Series visits Homestead after 3 rounds are complete, the 2014 Sprint Cup Championship will come down to a “Four-driver, First-to-the-Finish Championship Finale.”

From current odds listed above, six different drivers are listed below 8-1 among the favorites for the Sprint Cup Championship. After those top six drivers, the odds increase significantly with Kyle Busch listed at 14-1 all the way back to Ryan Newman at rather insane 250-1 odds. If you take into consideration this year’s format, a big longshot winning the Championship is not unlikely if they can get to Homestead among the final 4 drivers. Once Homestead rolls around, it does not matter how many wins a driver has but just who finishes the best in that season finale. Therefore that gives some of the longshots on this list, some serious upside. However once you start dissecting the 2014 Chase drivers based on their consistency this season, likelihood of winning races, and current momentum, then the field starts thinning out rather quickly.

When it comes to guys like Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Aric Almirola, Kasey Kahne, and Kurt Busch, go ahead and scratch them off your list. Almirola’s win in a wreck filled and rain shortened Daytona race got him in an automatic spot into the Chase but he is not a Championship contending driver. Neither Newman nor Biffle have found victory lane this year. Biffle has struggled significantly at some of his better race tracks and even if either driver was to score an upset victory early in the Chase, neither is consistent enough to keep winning or rack up the points in the latter rounds to get to Homestead. The same can be said for Busch and Kahne. Kahne’s strength at the 1.5 mile tracks could make him the most viable darkhorse out of this group, but the #5 team has been very inconsistent this season which will eventually lead to their demise. Speaking of consistency, add Kyle Busch to the list that you likely want to scratch off your list. While Busch’s talent is worth keeping, the #18 team has been in shambles throughout the summer months. The #18 M&M’s team would have to make a complete 180 to make a run at the Championship and we just do not see it happening.

If you heed our advice and scratch the drivers mentioned above off your list, then you are left with just 10 drivers still fighting for the Sprint Cup Championship. However then we start the process of elimination based on drivers that are over rated in terms of odds and those that are seemingly not running well enough to warrant further attention. The guy we think that is over-valued is Kevin Harvick. Harvick is the leading favorite at +325 and has been one of the fastest drivers in terms of car speed on a weekly basis this season. However, the #4 team has consistently ran into problems, made mistakes on pit road, and simply found ways not to win races. At just 3 to 1 odds, it’s hard to back a team with so much misfortune and internal mistakes.

Another driver that appears to be over-valued is Dale Earnhardt Jr. We understand Junior has 3 victories and having one of the best seasons of his career, but those 3 victories also come at 2 tracks that will not be in the Chase. Since his last win at Pocono, Junior has finished outside the top 10 in 4 of his last 5 races which downgrade his stock significantly. Denny Hamlin is another driver with a declining stock even though he has much better odds at 21-1. However, Hamlin disappointed last week at one of his best tracks with a 21st finish at Richmond. Despite being strong at Atlanta, Hamlin has not shown the potential to keep the #11 car upfront and we don’t even think the air guns can save them at this point. With just a few drivers remaining that we have not eliminated, let’s take a look at the drivers we think are best poised to make a Championship run that also have value from an odds perspective.

2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Picks

Jeff Gordon +425: In recent weeks, nobody has performed better than Gordon and the #24 team. Gordon finished 2nd last week at Richmond and also had one of the fastest cars two weeks ago at Atlanta but was caught up with pit road issues. Still, the fact remains the #24 team is going to be a threat.

Jimmie Johnson +600: So let me get this straight, you are giving us the six-time champ at 6-1 odds during the Chase? We will take it, gladly. Sure Johnson has not been getting the wins in recent weeks like Gordon, Keselowski, or even Logano. However, Johnson has still posted 4 straight top 10 finishes which includes two 4th place finishes at Bristol and Atlanta. Johnson has been quietly putting together solid runs and now it is time for the Chase, aka #48 season. Que the Jaws theme music!

Carl Edwards +10000: You can still get Carl Edwards at 100-1 odds at CarbonSports which is too good to pass up. Edwards has two wins this season and the Roush-Fenway cars appear to be coming around. If he can make some things happen and somehow get to the season finale, he has the best average finish among all drivers at Homestead. At 100-1 odds, we will take the gamble.

Matt Kenseth +1400: Our last pick is another semi dark horse with Matt Kenseth. Kenseth. Kenseth has posted 10 top 5’s this season including two in the last 3 races. While Kenseth does not exactly rack up a lot of wins, he has been consistent enough to keep advancing on points and is another driver that runs well at Homestead.