2014 Chase for Sprint Cup Championship Odds following Dover

Last Sunday’s AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway marked the end to the first round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship. Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, Greg Biffle, and Kurt Busch were among the 4 drivers that were eliminated from the Chase. This week the Chase moves to round 2, known as the Contender Round, and the start of another 3 race grind to keep championship hopes alive. However, round 2 of the Chase may provide the biggest wildcard of them all as the “Contender Round” will conclude with a restrictor plate thriller at Talladega Superspeedway which is the biggest wildcard track on the entire 10 race schedule for the Chase. Today we take a look at the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship odds following Dover and take a look at which drivers could excel over the next 3 races.

The good news is that our four original picks to win the Chase advanced with Jeff Gordon +425, Jimmie Johnson +600, Matt Kenseth +1400, and Carl Edwards at +10000. Gordon currently appears to be the best threat of the group. The #24 car has run well every week and capped off an impressive start to the Chase with last week’s win at Dover. However, points and race wins are wiped clean yet again over the next 3 races in this new and exciting Chase format.

Looking at the odds above, I think most would have to label Brad Keselowski as the driver to beat at this point in the season. Keselowski was a factor in all of the first 3 races in the Chase and it appears the #2 team is dialed in every week. Keselowski also has 3 victories on 1.5 mile tracks this season which fits in nicely with the next 3 races on the schedule starting with Kansas and then again at Charlotte. Outside of Gordon whom we already mentioned, the next two biggest favorites listed are between Kevin Harvick (+400) and Jimmie Johnson (+500). Harvick definitely has the speed to win a championship this season but last week’s blown tire at Dover after dominating the race was just another example of many this season where the #4 car has failed to capitalize on their speed. Until the team proves they can put together the finishes worthy of their speed, Harvick remains over valued.

For whatever reason a lot of people still have Jimmie Johnson on the backburner when talking about Chase contenders. While the #48 has been rather quiet, his finishes of 3rd, 5th, and 12th through the first 3 races of the Chase were as solid as any other driver. It would be rather surprising if Johnson is not a factor in the Chase before this thing is over. After your top 4 favorites, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin are in your ‘intermediate’ odds category. Meanwhile Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, and Ryan Newman are rather big longshots.

For the drivers in the ‘big longshots’ category, Newman has not shown any potential to make an impact in the Chase but both Edwards and Kahne are tempting. If there were odds given as to drivers that would advance from round 2, Kahne would be a good dark horse pick considering his resume on the 1.5 tracks especially with two really good tracks coming up in Kansas and Charlotte. Edwards has not appeared to be championship worthy but if he can find a way to keep advancing, his past performance at Homestead make his odds tempting. Still, it’s hard finding a scenario of how Edwards can advance based on how the #99 car has been running.

Lastly for the drivers in the intermediate range based on odds, only Joey Logano has truly shown he can contend on a weekly basis. Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr are struggling. Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin have potential but are not putting together the finishes necessary to keep them in contention without victories. Earnhardt Jr has a few tracks coming up where he could get things turned around with Charlotte and Talladega. Say what you want about the wildcard factor of Talladega, I will still take the #88 over anyone at the restrictor plate tracks. However, I think the guy with the most upside in this group remains to be Matt Kenseth despite any wins in 2014. Kenseth and the #20 team have been running strong despite a few incidents that resulted in bad finishes. Still in terms of speed and potential, Kenseth has the best opportunity outside of the top 4 favorites to upset the field over the next 7 races to win the Sprint Cup Championship. Of course all that could change over the next 3 races as we prepare for another exciting string of events as the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship continues.