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Topic: F1 Russian GP - 8.00am ET Sunday  (Read 164 times)

Optional April 27, 2017, 10:50:52 PM

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Friday practice at 4.00am and 8.00am ET
Saturday P3 5.00am & Quali 8.00am
Sunday Race 8.00am

There is a decent stream of SkyF1 with all sessions and without many popups here: http://cdn23.crichd.in/sky-sports-f1-live-streaming



Shitty boring track that is tough to pass on and also does not wear tires so everyone ends up on same strategy.

Mercedes have won every race here. It's considered a power track which we think they still hold an advantage in and the corners are kind of simple and square a bit like China where Merc won last. And unlike Australia and Bahrain with high speed sweepers that saw Ferrari handle tire wear much better. It's also cooler here again which is thought to help Mercedes against Ferrari.

Pundits are saying this in Bottas best track over last few years in the Williams and he knows he needs to win to stop the slide into official #2 team driver so he might be a decent chance to beat Hamilton. Especially at 9/1 odds.

Not sure I agree with that but those odds do make it tempting to take the shot.

Williams as a team has killed it here... but is it the car or has it been Bottas?  If they had someone a bit younger than Massa as their lead driver I'd be thinking they might beat the Red Bulls this weekend.  Anyway, keep them safe as they could be good.  Young Lance Stroll has been kind of awful so far but I can see Williams trying to help his confidence with a shot at fast lap if the opportunity arises and the car has it in it.

Speaking of fast lap... with the lack of tyre strategy from the smooth track here it kind of takes away the value from fast lap longshots. I'm going to take Massa and Stroll small for fast lap now just in case they really shine in practice and odds drop but honestly dont really see anyone but the top 4 taking it here without some sort of late incident that sees someone switch to Ultra Softs in the final laps.

Kyvatt has been better than Sainz in last 2 GPs in the Torro Rosso but books still have his odds at about double those of his team mate. RS1X pointed out that there could be some value to be found from him at his home GP and I agree. I'm a bit worried the Merc engined Force India might be a bit fast for them to jump on him top 10 +120 yet but am thinking about it depending how practice pans out.


So far I've taken;

Fastest in P1 - Hamilton +110

Fastest Lap - Stroll 100/1, Massa 40/1



Current 5Dimes Odds;

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  -120
Sebastian Vettel  +150
Valtteri Bottas  +750
Kimi Raikkonen  +1600
Max Verstappen  +4000
Daniel Ricciardo  +4000
Felipe Massa  +25000
Sergio Perez  +50000
Carlos Sainz  +50000
Daniil Kvyat  +100000
Esteban Ocon  +100000
Lance Stroll  +100000
Nico Hulkenberg  +100000
Romain Grosjean  +100000
Kevin Magnussen  +150000
Jolyon Palmer  +200000
Fernando Alonso  +200000
Stoffel Vandoorne  +250000
Marcus Ericsson  +300000
Pascal Wehrlein  +300000

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  -185
Valtteri Bottas  +300
Sebastian Vettel  +350
Kimi Raikkonen  +1600
Max Verstappen  +5000
Daniel Ricciardo  +5000
Felipe Massa  +25000
Sergio Perez  +50000
Carlos Sainz  +50000
Daniil Kvyat  +100000
Esteban Ocon  +100000
Lance Stroll  +100000
Nico Hulkenberg  +100000
Romain Grosjean  +100000
Kevin Magnussen  +200000
Fernando Alonso  +200000
Jolyon Palmer  +250000
Stoffel Vandoorne  +300000
Marcus Ericsson  +300000
Pascal Wehrlein  +300000

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  -700
Sebastian Vettel  -600
Valtteri Bottas  -200
Kimi Raikkonen  +150
Max Verstappen  +350
Daniel Ricciardo  +350
Felipe Massa  +2000
Carlos Sainz  +5000
Sergio Perez  +6600
Nico Hulkenberg  +10000
Lance Stroll  +15000
Romain Grosjean  +15000
Daniil Kvyat  +20000
Esteban Ocon  +20000
Kevin Magnussen  +25000
Jolyon Palmer  +50000
Fernando Alonso  +50000
Stoffel Vandoorne  +100000
Marcus Ericsson  +100000
Pascal Wehrlein  +100000

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  -800
Sebastian Vettel  -700
Valtteri Bottas  -600
Kimi Raikkonen  -500
Max Verstappen  -350
Daniel Ricciardo  -300
Felipe Massa  -225
Sergio Perez  +400
Carlos Sainz  +500
Romain Grosjean  +500
Nico Hulkenberg  +600
Daniil Kvyat  +800
Esteban Ocon  +800
Lance Stroll  +800
Kevin Magnussen  +1000
Jolyon Palmer  +1600
Fernando Alonso  +1600
Stoffel Vandoorne  +3300
Marcus Ericsson  +5000
Pascal Wehrlein  +5000

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  -1000
Sebastian Vettel  -900
Valtteri Bottas  -800
Kimi Raikkonen  -700
Max Verstappen  -500
Daniel Ricciardo  -500
Felipe Massa  -350
Sergio Perez  -200
Carlos Sainz  -185
Nico Hulkenberg  +100
Romain Grosjean  +100
Esteban Ocon  +110
Lance Stroll  +110
Daniil Kvyat  +120
Kevin Magnussen  +135
Fernando Alonso  +250
Jolyon Palmer  +300
Stoffel Vandoorne  +800
Marcus Ericsson  +2000
Pascal Wehrlein  +2000

Formula 1   Russian Grand Prix - Fastest Lap
Fri 4/28  4:00AM
Lewis Hamilton  +125
Sebastian Vettel  +275
Valtteri Bottas  +400
Kimi Raikkonen  +700
Daniel Ricciardo  +1600
Max Verstappen  +1600
Felipe Massa  +4000
Carlos Sainz  +5000
Sergio Perez  +5000
Daniil Kvyat  +10000
Esteban Ocon  +10000
Lance Stroll  +10000
Nico Hulkenberg  +10000
Fernando Alonso  +15000
Romain Grosjean  +15000
Kevin Magnussen  +20000
Jolyon Palmer  +30000
Stoffel Vandoorne  +50000
Marcus Ericsson  +50000
Pascal Wehrlein  +50000


5mike5 April 28, 2017, 12:28:05 AM (#1)

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Great insight and stats as usual opti

I'll take that advice and throw out a few plays pribably

vegas native April 28, 2017, 03:06:21 PM (#2)

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Ferrari looks fast Opti. Do you still think Mercedes has a shot?

And who do you like in the Indycar race on Saturday night?

Optional April 29, 2017, 04:19:51 AM (#3)

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Ferrari looks fast Opti. Do you still think Mercedes has a shot?

And who do you like in the Indycar race on Saturday night?

Yeah still think Mercedes takes pole and the race.

Might change my mind after P3 which is about to start though :)

No idea with Indy. Do you know what trident likes?

Optional April 29, 2017, 04:22:00 AM (#4)

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5 bucks on Massa fastest in P3 @ 200/1

:)

Took Mercedes to take Pole -115

Thought those odds were generous for either of them so jumped.

Optional April 29, 2017, 05:59:28 AM (#5)

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Ferrari looks fast Opti. Do you still think Mercedes has a shot?

Hmmm. Ferrari pace looking genuine in P3.

Merc usually dial engine up for an extra 5/10ths in Q3, which is about how far they are behind this session.

Going to be a coin toss for pole by looks.

5mike5 April 29, 2017, 06:07:34 AM (#6)

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womdsr what these cars would do on a big oval?  Just a thought, think it maybe dangerous

Optional April 29, 2017, 06:23:28 AM (#7)

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womdsr what these cars would do on a big oval?  Just a thought, think it maybe dangerous

We might find out with the new American owners.

Bernie Eccelstone would never let them race in a comparable way to Indy or anything else.

They have quite a bit more horsepower than an Indycar so probably would be faster once dialed in.

5mike5 April 29, 2017, 06:34:24 AM (#8)

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womdsr what these cars would do on a big oval?  Just a thought, think it maybe dangerous

We might find out with the new American owners.

Bernie Eccelstone would never let them race in a comparable way to Indy or anything else.

They have quite a bit more horsepower than an Indycar so probably would be faster once dialed in.

Would be awsome. Wondering how dangerous it would be, they seem like they would outpace the Indy cars even.

Be crazy to see side by side racing on an oval with those machines.

rs1x April 29, 2017, 11:31:00 AM (#9)

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Vettel with the pole

rs1x April 29, 2017, 06:30:11 PM (#10)

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Never thought I would see a day where ham is +450 to win

5mike5 April 30, 2017, 06:23:40 AM (#11)

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not sure what to throw a dart at here. I'm up so gonna need to route for something

5mike5 April 30, 2017, 06:31:24 AM (#12)

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Need opti or rsx1 to jump in here before racetime

Optional April 30, 2017, 06:34:23 AM (#13)

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I dunno Mike. Looks like Vettel should win but worse odds than Lewis has been seem a bit much.

Maybe Bottas worth a shot at the odds but dont really think he'll win.

The top 4 fast lap odds are about right. Only crazy luck (good or bad) will see someone else take it I think. As usual maybe a small advantage in Kimi but as we talked about last race, Bottas seemed keen to steal it last lap too. Odds shitty.

After Ferrari, Merc, Red Bull and Massa take the top 7 finish spots it's a lottery between at least 7 others for the final top 10 spots and I dont see any value in anyone in particular.

There is usually a safety car here.

Not sure who will retire first.

90 mins still to decide but might just add a few bucks on some more of the fast lap longshots and just enjoy the race I think.

5mike5 April 30, 2017, 06:47:35 AM (#14)

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Guess that's what I'll do as well. 

Just 1-2 FL plays.  Kimi OR bottas  and Dan R maybe longshot

Won't play much either way, just need a little something going to make interesting

Thanks for insight as always on this series!