News:

Truex wins Championship! Thanks everyone for a great year!

Topic: College Football 2014  (Read 3127 times)

nascarwagers August 06, 2014, 11:33:55 PM

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3323
    • View Profile
Well guys I put down my first bet of the college football season today and it was a very large bet. Ride or die game 1 style  :lol

Opening up the thread for any early college football discussion. For those that don't know, I write betting previews for Predictem.com. Been doing it for about 5 years for football. I like to think I pick them pretty well. Any and all discussion welcome.

My first big bet of the year:

8/28/14 Texas A&M at South Carolina over 58.5

I am a huge Gamecocks fan and go to every home game. So needless to say I will be in attendance when they kickoff the college football season on the SEC Network on Thursday night later this month. Here is what you need to know. Gamecocks return almost everyone on offense except for last year's quarterback Connor Shaw and WR Bruce Ellington. QB Dylan Thompson may be a better pure passer than Shaw and has had adequate game experience. With a big experienced offensive line, one of the best running backs in the nation, and speed on the outside. I fully expect the Gamecocks to attack A&M's weak defense and keep them off balance throughout the night. Coach Spurrier loves to attack early in these games and I expect that will be the case from the start.

On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks biggest concerns are in the secondary. They have all their linebackers back and have to replace some talent on the defensive line. The defensive line will still be extremely talented but the secondary is a different story. The Gamecocks lost 2 CB's due to graduation last year then unexpectedly lost two additional CB's in the off-season. Two true freshman that enroll in August will be on the two deep at CB and could push for starting time. The only CB with any considerable experience is Brison Williams who has been moved to safety this year to be more of a coach to the secondary and make sure everyone is in their positions at the snap.  Needless to say, this will be a major area of concern.

As most are aware, Kevin Sumlin runs a fast paced spread offense. Sumlin's offense is built around getting the ball out quick and spreading it around the field to receivers. The Aggies offense has to replace several guys at the skill positions but they will have a veteran offensive line group in front. I know it is the post Johnny Football era but I don't expect their too many problems from the two Aggies candidates to take over at QB. I fully expect sophomore Kenny Hill to get the nod at the QB position over Freshman Kyle Allen. Hill was Manziel's backup and provides instant dual threat capabilities though Allen may be the future of the A&M offense. As long as the Aggies do not come out and bomb it offensively, they should be able to spread the ball around and keep the Gamecocks defense on their heels at least in the secondary.

Needless to say, I think this will be a game full of offenses. Gamecocks should score at will. Only reason I did not go large on the spread is for the uncertainties on defense. Either way, I really like the over in this game.  :cheers


Optional August 07, 2014, 09:45:02 AM (#1)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4771
    • View Profile
Sounds good Jay.

3 weeks ahead, you must be very keen for kickoff!

Mario4 August 07, 2014, 04:42:18 PM (#2)

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
I'm loving the new college football thread. This is the sport I do the most homework on. I really concentrate on College Football Season Totals. The last 2 years I have put a lot of time on research during the summer and have combined for a 20-6 mark over two seasons. This season I have added to my research and purchased Phil Steele's College Football Preview Book along with Athlon College Football preview book. I will have all my plays a little closer to the start of the season. I am just holding off from posting incase of any pre-season injuries during practices. I look forward to reading everyones insight.

nascarwagers August 07, 2014, 04:53:08 PM (#3)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3323
    • View Profile
I'm loving the new college football thread. This is the sport I do the most homework on. I really concentrate on College Football Season Totals. The last 2 years I have put a lot of time on research during the summer and have combined for a 20-6 mark over two seasons. This season I have added to my research and purchased Phil Steele's College Football Preview Book along with Athlon College Football preview book. I will have all my plays a little closer to the start of the season. I am just holding off from posting incase of any pre-season injuries during practices. I look forward to reading everyones insight.

Yep, that's the idea. I know it is real early for College Football and a lot can happen from now until kickoff. Hopefully we get plenty of insight from everyone the closer we get  :cheers

Reigle9 August 09, 2014, 11:20:52 AM (#4)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3221
    • View Profile
I am just holding off from posting incase of any pre-season injuries during practices.
Yup.

Your star QB goes down in practice and all your futures are gone.

I'm buying Phil's package this year that he had for free last year.

5mike5 August 25, 2014, 07:53:31 PM (#5)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14434
    • View Profile
with the College football season starting with a FULL-SLATE of games this weekend might as well "BUMP" the thread Jay started a few weeks ago though....

just put all Ur opinions, discussions, and pick is u want to in here!!!'

i mostly just play a few parlays on Saturdays and dint bet anywhere near like nascar besides maxing parlays i plan to use with nascar with is every1 usually...maybe 1 a Saturday ill play and close out that day but not every weekend

BUT IM EXCITED AS SHIT!!!.....

as u all know I'm only really, really good @ NASCAR< but i do still LOVE betting CFB/NFL...probably better and NFL but cant resist some action on Saturday's too...

HERE'S TO US ALL HAVING A GREAT CFB SEASON!!!!!

Trident August 25, 2014, 09:19:19 PM (#6)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
I am just holding off from posting incase of any pre-season injuries during practices.
Yup.

Your star QB goes down in practice and all your futures are gone.

I'm buying Phil's package this year that he had for free last year.

Best injury info on the net. @vegasbedwards

5mike5 August 25, 2014, 09:31:24 PM (#7)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14434
    • View Profile
I am just holding off from posting incase of any pre-season injuries during practices.
Yup.

Your star QB goes down in practice and all your futures are gone.

I'm buying Phil's package this year that he had for free last year.

Best injury info on the net. @vegasbedwards

@Trident always knows the damn insider sights..lol

5mike5 August 25, 2014, 09:32:32 PM (#8)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14434
    • View Profile
anybody see any ML underdogs with a decent chance @dimes let me know please...

thanks


(PS...gotta love dimes giving ML on a -51 ducks game :lol....nobody else does anything close to a ML on a -51)

5mike5 August 25, 2014, 09:38:00 PM (#9)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14434
    • View Profile
not alot of good games to watch this week as usual for 1st few weeks imo...or to bet on from my first quick glance.....but im no CFB guru or even good so I could be totally wrong...

ill wait for the guys that know this much better than i do

Trident August 25, 2014, 10:02:41 PM (#10)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile

(PS...gotta love dimes giving ML on a -51 ducks game :lol....nobody else does anything close to a ML on a -51)


Ducks will have that covered by halftime.   :dancer

Trident August 25, 2014, 10:09:15 PM (#11)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1217
    • View Profile
Thursday's Games

Two new starting QBs in A&M-South Carolina game, but Gamercocks have senior QB Thompson who has started three times, played in 14, so he has edge in experience. Post-Manziel era starts with no experience at QB for Aggies- they're 5-10-1 vs spread as road underdog since '07. SC is 13-8 as home favorite since '11. Both teams have four starters back on offensive line.

ULM (+2.5) won 21-19 at Wake Forest LY, outgaining Deacons by 99 yards; not often a BCS school visits the Sun Belt. Warhawks may use transfer Thomas at QB- he played against Wake LY when he was at NC State. U:M is 14-12 as dog under Berry, 2-2 at home. Wake Forest has a new coach, is starting true freshman QB; they're 6-8 as road favorite over last decade.

Tulsa won eight of last nine games with Tulane, winning last four here, all by 28+ points., but Green Wave upset them 14-7 (+3) LY. Tulsa was 3-9 LY after being 29-11 the three years before that- they're 17-14 as a home favorite since '08, have 10 starters back on defense. Tulane has lot of options at QB, including Joe Montana's son; they're 13-6-1 as a dog under Johnson, 5-4-1 at home.

Boise State is 112-18 over last 10 years, 61-3 on blue turf, but they have new coach (8-5 in one year at Arkansas St); Broncos are home dog for first time since '05- they were 4-3 as road dog under Petersen. Long road trip for Ole Miss, which has SEC opener vs Vandy next; Rebels have a senior QB with 26 starts, nine starters back on defense- they covered 8 of last 10 non-SEC tilts. Boise has senior QB with only 5 career starts.

Temple-Vanderbilt haven't met since '06. Owls were 2-10 LY but 7-1 vs spread as an underdog- they've got 8 starters back on defense but lost 4 of 5 starters on OL. Vandy has new coach (from Stanford), four starters back on OL, soph QB has 3 career starts. Temple is 15-6 as road dogs since '08. Commodores were 9-3 as home favorites in last three years under Franklin (now at Penn St).

Third year at Washington State should yield results for Mike Leach, who has OL that weighs 20 pounds more per man than LY. Coogs have senior QB with 19 starts, but no senior starters on OL- they're 5-3 in last eight games as home favorite. Long road trip for Rutgers; they're 7-3 in last 10 tries as road dog. Knights have senior QB with 18 starts, all five starters back on OL, three of whom are seniors.

Friday's Games

BYU lost its first road game the last four years and were favored in last two; Cougars have junior QB with 15 career starts- they're 8-12 as road favorites since '08, were 0-3 LY. Dogs covered 12 of their last 16 games on road. UConn has new coach, three QBs back from LY who all threw 125+ passes LY- since '04, they're 19-4 vs spread as home underdogs. Dogs covered 16 of UConn's last 20 home games.

Bowling Green-Western Kentucky haven't met since '07; both clubs have new coaches. Hilltoppers are on 3rd coach in three years. WKU is 9-4 as a home underdog since '09; they covered 12 of last 14 tries as underdogs, but lost 7 starters on defense, have senior QB with eleven career starts. Falcons are 12-3 as road faves since '07; they have 7 starters back on defense, 3 on OL and junior QB with 13 starts.

Colorado won eight of last 11 games vs Colorado State; dogs are 10-6 vs spread in series, but Buffs' last four series wins are all by 14+ points. In LY's game, Buffs outgained State by 214 yards- they're 3-0 as favorites under MacIntyre, have soph QB with 7 starts. Rams have senior QB; he has 22 starts, led State to first bowl in five years LY (won 48-45). CSU lost 4 starters on OL, is 6-7 as an underdog under McElwain.

Tex-San Antonio is coached by Larry Coker, old Miami coach; they are 7-5 as road underdogs last two years; this is only their 4th year as team. Roadrunners have 10 starters back on both sides of ball, but their QB has not started yet. Houston (-2) beat UTSA 59-28 LY; Coogs had +5 ratio in turnovers, yardage was even. Houston is 20-7 as home favorites since '07, 6-4 under Levine- their soph QB started 11 games last year.

Arizona (-10) pounded UNLV 58-13 LY, running ball for 397 yards, but RichRod has been complaining this summer about lack of QB. Wildcats have four starters back on OL to protect whoever new QB is- they're 5-6 as home favorites under Rodriguez. Rebels got to first bowl in 13 years LY; they've got 13 starters back, junior QB with 15 starts, 4 starters are back on OL- they are 6-2 as road dog last two years.

www.Armadillosports.com

nascarwagers August 26, 2014, 11:09:09 AM (#12)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3323
    • View Profile
I think Ole Miss is over rated. Not quite sure if Boise can surprise them early, but Rebels were average at best last year. Brought in some good recruits but far from 18th or whatever they are currently ranked.

5mike5 August 26, 2014, 07:56:16 PM (#13)

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14434
    • View Profile
i started my 1st open parlay( 3-slot):

 TX A&M/gamecocks OVER 57.5 pts (-110) (followed jay)(now its 60!)
UCLA OVER Virginia (-20.5)  (-120)
OPEN (for a  nascar play)

 :dancelol

Optional August 27, 2014, 04:08:31 AM (#14)

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4771
    • View Profile
i started my 1st open parlay( 3-slot):

 TX A&M/gamecocks OVER 57.5 pts (-110) (followed jay)(now its 60!)
UCLA OVER Virginia (-20.5)  (-120)
OPEN (for a  nascar play)

 :dancelol


Tailing this Mr Lucky!

Although had to take 60 and 21.