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Topic: F1 - Australian Grand Prix 2017  (Read 285 times)

Optional March 23, 2017, 05:50:48 AM

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The new Formula 1 season kicks of this Sunday in Melbourne (1am US ET Sunday)
 
 
 One bet I think will be great value is for the Pole Sitter NOT To Lead Lap 1.
 
 A major rule change on how the clutch works was specifically designed to make the starts more unpredictable. I think anything better than about +150 makes it worth taking blind. Might be double those odds if the books/public haven't caught the change.
 
 The bet isn't available until after qualifying is over, btw.
 
 
 
 Win Market
 
 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)    +130

 Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)    +350
 Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)    +550
 Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)    +800   
 Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)    +1000   
 Max Verstappen (Red Bull)    +1000
 Felipe Massa (Williams)    +10000
 Lance Stroll (Williams)    +25000    
 Fernando Alonso (McLaren)    +25000
 Sergio Perez (Force India)    +25000    
 Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)    +35000    
 Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)    +50000
 Kevin Magnussen (Haas)    +50000
 Daniil Kvyat (Toro Rosso)    +50000
 Carlos Sainz Jr (Toro Rosso)    +50000
 Esteban Ocon (Force India)    +100000    
 Romain Grosjean (Haas)    +100000
 Jolyon Palmer (Renault)    +100000
 Marcus Ericsson (Sauber)    +200000   
 Pascal Wehrlein (Sauber)    +200000
 
 
 During pre-season testing Mecedes and Ferrari looked like they are going to come out ahead of everyone else.
 
 Red Bull were only best of the rest but their engine supplier, Renault, announced that they have made changes that were holding them back on power and reliability during testing, so they could be over-priced a little at 10/1 each.
 
 Either Hamilton/Vettel to win -191 is probably the best bet out of the win market if you like chalk. I'd guess that could be closer to -500 by race day if practice/quali goes as expected right now.
 
 But I'm waiting until we see Friday practice, at least, before making a bet myself.
 
 
 
 Top 10 Finish

 
 Lewis Hamilton     -1000
 Sebastian Vettel     -1000
 Valtteri Bottas     -700
 Kimi Raikkonen     -700
 Daniel Ricciardo     -600
 Max Verstappen     -600
 Felipe Massa     -300
 Sergio Perez     -175
 Lance Stroll     -150
 Nico Hulkenberg     -110
 Fernando Alonso     +100
 Carlos Sainz     +100
 Daniil Kvyat     +165
 Jolyon Palmer     +165
 Esteban Ocon     +175
 Kevin Magnussen     +225
 Romain Grosjean     +250
 Stoffel Vandoorne     +300
 Marcus Ericsson     +1100
 Pascal Wehrlein     +1200
 
 
 Esteban Ocon     +175 is good value and the odds should drop to evens or worse if he practices well. I think the Williams will not be as fast as Force India giving Ocon a serious chance at a top 8 finish, let alone top 10.
 
 
 
 Fastest Lap
 
 Lewis Hamilton     +165
 Sebastian Vettel     +300
 Valtteri Bottas     +400
 Kimi Raikkonen     +700
 Max Verstappen     +1000
 Daniel Ricciardo     +1000
 Sergio Perez     +10000
 Felipe Massa     +12500
 Fernando Alonso     +12500
 Lance Stroll     +12500
 Nico Hulkenberg     +15000
 Carlos Sainz     +15000
 Stoffel Vandoorne     +25000
 Daniil Kvyat     +25000
 Kevin Magnussen     +25000
 Jolyon Palmer     +50000
 Esteban Ocon     +50000
 Romain Grosjean     +50000

 Pascal Wehrlein     +100000
 Marcus Ericsson     +100000
 
 
 If you spread one unit across those 12 (dutched) it pays +1644
 
 With new different compound tyres and uncertainty about speed/reliability of every team first race out I think that is enormous value basically betting that one of the top 3 teams wont make the fastest lap. It only takes someone getting a flat late in the race, or using a weird alternate strategy, to see a rank underdog take it.
 
 
 
 Will look at H2Hs and other exotics on race day.


dapperandy March 23, 2017, 10:28:35 AM (#1)

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Thank you for posting your analysis, Opti. Looking forward to it and the race.

Optional March 23, 2017, 12:55:28 PM (#2)

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Wow, Jacques Villeneuve is being a right asshole to his Canadian countryman right before his first race.

Talk about pressure, having your countries most succesful racing driver ripping in this badly.

Quote
  Jacques Villeneuve has changed his tune about the F1 debut this weekend of his 18-year-old Canadian countryman Lance Stroll.
Earlier, the 1997 world champion defended Stroll's arrival at the highest class of motor racing at such a young age.

But he now tells Germany's Auto Bild: "He's so smart and talented, but I'm sorry -- at the age of 18, he's too young for formula one.
"What Williams is doing is absolute madness.   Stroll has a wild driving style and this could be dangerous
," Villeneuve said ahead of the 2017 season opener.

5mike5 March 23, 2017, 01:22:22 PM (#3)

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Wierd change of tune eh?

Opti is this race 1am Sunday morning here in US?  Like 12 hrs before Cup race?

Optional March 23, 2017, 02:04:51 PM (#4)

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Wierd change of tune eh?

Opti is this race 1am Sunday morning here in US?  Like 12 hrs before Cup race?

Correct. 1am ET Sunday morning.

5mike5 March 23, 2017, 02:07:12 PM (#5)

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Wierd change of tune eh?

Opti is this race 1am Sunday morning here in US?  Like 12 hrs before Cup race?

Correct. 1am ET Sunday morning.

Thanks

5mike5 March 23, 2017, 02:56:03 PM (#6)

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Did You notice opti that  they have season win totals and matchups for season wins for F1 up at dimes?

Hamilton over 9.5 wins !  (-170) Good lord

rs1x March 23, 2017, 08:10:17 PM (#7)

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Wooooooooooo been waiting months for this.  :zoom

rs1x March 23, 2017, 08:13:41 PM (#8)

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Dimes has odds up for all their normal f1 markets

rs1x March 23, 2017, 08:19:12 PM (#9)

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Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     +110
Sebastian Vettel     +340
Valtteri Bottas     +500
Kimi Raikkonen     +750
Daniel Ricciardo     +1050
Max Verstappen     +1050
Felipe Massa     +11000
Fernando Alonso     +15000
Lance Stroll     +35000
Sergio Perez     +40000
Nico Hulkenberg     +50000
Carlos Sainz     +75000
Daniil Kvyat     +100000
Kevin Magnussen     +100000
Stoffel Vandoorne     +100000
Esteban Ocon     +200000
Jolyon Palmer     +200000
Romain Grosjean     +200000
Marcus Ericsson     +300000
Pascal Wehrlein     +300000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     +105
Sebastian Vettel     +320
Valtteri Bottas     +400
Kimi Raikkonen     +650
Daniel Ricciardo     +1000
Max Verstappen     +1000
Felipe Massa     +10000
Fernando Alonso     +40000
Lance Stroll     +40000
Sergio Perez     +40000
Nico Hulkenberg     +50000
Carlos Sainz     +50000
Daniil Kvyat     +100000
Kevin Magnussen     +100000
Stoffel Vandoorne     +100000
Esteban Ocon     +200000
Jolyon Palmer     +200000
Romain Grosjean     +300000
Marcus Ericsson     +300000
Pascal Wehrlein     +300000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     -400
Sebastian Vettel     -250
Valtteri Bottas     -150
Kimi Raikkonen     +100
Max Verstappen     +175
Daniel Ricciardo     +200
Felipe Massa     +1200
Fernando Alonso     +5000
Sergio Perez     +6600
Lance Stroll     +10000
Nico Hulkenberg     +10000
Carlos Sainz     +20000
Daniil Kvyat     +25000
Kevin Magnussen     +25000
Stoffel Vandoorne     +25000
Esteban Ocon     +25000
Jolyon Palmer     +50000
Romain Grosjean     +50000
Marcus Ericsson     +100000
Pascal Wehrlein     +100000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     -800
Sebastian Vettel     -800
Valtteri Bottas     -500
Kimi Raikkonen     -500
Daniel Ricciardo     -300
Max Verstappen     -300
Felipe Massa     -120
Sergio Perez     +330
Fernando Alonso     +350
Lance Stroll     +350
Nico Hulkenberg     +500
Carlos Sainz     +600
Daniil Kvyat     +1200
Kevin Magnussen     +1200
Jolyon Palmer     +1200
Stoffel Vandoorne     +1400
Esteban Ocon     +1400
Romain Grosjean     +1400
Marcus Ericsson     +2000
Pascal Wehrlein     +2000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     -1000
Sebastian Vettel     -1000
Valtteri Bottas     -700
Kimi Raikkonen     -700
Daniel Ricciardo     -600
Max Verstappen     -600
Felipe Massa     -300
Sergio Perez     -175
Lance Stroll     -150
Nico Hulkenberg     -110
Fernando Alonso     +100
Carlos Sainz     +100
Daniil Kvyat     +165
Jolyon Palmer     +165
Esteban Ocon     +175
Kevin Magnussen     +225
Romain Grosjean     +250
Stoffel Vandoorne     +300
Marcus Ericsson     +1100
Pascal Wehrlein     +1200


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Fastest Lap
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Lewis Hamilton     +165
Sebastian Vettel     +300
Valtteri Bottas     +400
Kimi Raikkonen     +700
Max Verstappen     +1000
Daniel Ricciardo     +1000
Felipe Massa     +3300
Sergio Perez     +10000
Fernando Alonso     +12500
Lance Stroll     +12500
Nico Hulkenberg     +15000
Carlos Sainz     +15000
Stoffel Vandoorne     +25000
Daniil Kvyat     +25000
Kevin Magnussen     +25000
Jolyon Palmer     +50000
Esteban Ocon     +50000
Romain Grosjean     +50000
Pascal Wehrlein     +100000
Marcus Ericsson     +100000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - Winning Team
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Mercedes     -175
Ferrari     +185
Red Bull     +450
Williams     +8000
McLaren     +17500
Force India     +35000
Renault     +40000
Toro Rosso     +45000
Haas     +65000
Sauber     +150000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - First Team Retirement
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Mclaren     +350
Toro Rosso     +600
Sauber     +700
Force India     +700
Renault     +700
Haas     +800
Williams     +900
Red Bull     +1000
Mercedes     +1100
Ferrari     +1200
No Retirements     +2000


Formula 1   Australian Grand Prix - First Driver Retirement
Thu 3/23  9:00PM
Stoffel Vandoorne     +800
Fernando Alonso     +900
Daniil Kvyat     +1200
Pascal Wehrlein     +1400
Esteban Ocon     +1400
Carlos Sainz     +1600
Jolyon Palmer     +1600
Marcus Ericsson     +1600
Nico Hulkenberg     +1600
Lance Stroll     +1600
Kevin Magnussen     +1800
Romain Grosjean     +1800
Sergio Perez     +2000
Daniel Ricciardo     +2000
Max Verstappen     +2000
Valtteri Bottas     +2000
No Retirements     +2000
Felipe Massa     +2500
Kimi Raikkonen     +2500
Lewis Hamilton     +2500
Sebastian Vettel     +2500

rs1x March 23, 2017, 08:40:56 PM (#10)

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oops sorry opti posted odds also .. sorry im just fired up :dancer

vegas native March 23, 2017, 11:08:47 PM (#11)

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I'm with you guys. I love road/street courses way more then ovals so f1 and Indy cars get me fired up. I just hate the long breaks they have between races. Hopefully Ferrari and Red Bull caught up to Mercedes in the off season to make f1 a little more competitive. Indy car races have been outstanding the last couple years because the competition is starting to equal out a little more.

5mike5 March 24, 2017, 12:04:05 AM (#12)

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I just hate pretty much knowing who will win 90+% of the time before the races even start. Wish there was more variables from a fans perspective who doesn't follow it that closely


I think it is Fun to take a few shots at fastest lap

rs1x March 24, 2017, 04:25:22 PM (#13)

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Those who got opening fastest lap odds have a huge edge. They opened back up much much lower

Optional March 25, 2017, 10:22:49 AM (#14)

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I just hate pretty much knowing who will win 90+% of the time before the races even start. Wish there was more variables from a fans perspective who doesn't follow it that closely


I think it is Fun to take a few shots at fastest lap

Unfortunately it's looking like it might be worse than last year. Without even Bottas to fight with Hamilton like Rosberg did.  Although that might improve later on.

There is going to be less passing this year as more aero downforce means it's harder to follow close.  I don't really mind that though personally. The tougher it is to pass the better passes drivers are forced to make. It's become too easy to pass in reecent years and we hardly see a memorable pass as they all just wait to do it on the straight with DRS or at an easy spot. Now they'll have to actually have to fight and take risks to get by more often, again.


Those who got opening fastest lap odds have a huge edge. They opened back up much much lower

Yeah they were falsely high I thought. As soon as books see all the cars are just about the same pace.. apart from Hamilton out front of everyone and the Saubers sadly slow, they were going to adjust it all down.

Glad to have the 16/1 'field bet' for fast lap but might still add Ricciardo or Kimi.  Or might even break down and take Lewis. He seems pumped up to humiliate Bottas and put him in his place and good chance he will think about taking Pole/Fast lap/Lead Every Lap.






McLaren went way better than expected in quali and are talking up their reliability.

I think this is smoke and mirrors and there is very little chance they will finish the race. Or not at a compeittive speed if they do make it to the finish line.

Their problem is an inherent design flaw that causes vibration and Honda has already announced a new design will be here for the Monaco race in May as its just not possible to fix this design.


Anyway, I think taking them for First Driver Retirement is a smart bet

Stoffel Vandoorne      +900
Fernando Alonso      +1100


Put 52% on VanDoorne and 48% on Alonso for +474 odds either McLaren is first car to retire.

(better way to bet that First Team to Retire odds at +400)



As far as head to Heads.

Of the ones available I think every single favourite is very likely to win each intra-team head to head.

They dont have Ricciardo v Verstappen up for some reason.  Will probably take Ricciardo if +150 or better when they do post it.

Make a parlay with the chalky faves maybe?



Sun 3/26         7701 Daniil Kvyat         +130                 
1:00AM          7702 Carlos Sainz          -160     
             
Sun 3/26         7703 Lance Stroll         +360                 
1:00AM          7704 Felipe Massa          -450     
             
Sun 3/26         7705 Stoffel Vandoorne         +185                 
1:00AM          7706 Fernando Alonso          -225     
             
Sun 3/26         7707 Romain Grosjean         -350                 
1:00AM          7708 Kevin Magnussen          +260     
             
Sun 3/26         7709 Valtteri Bottas         +320                 
1:00AM          7710 Lewis Hamilton          -390     
             
Sun 3/26         7711 Jolyon Palmer         +250                 
1:00AM          7712 Nico Hulkenberg          -300     
             
Sun 3/26         7713 Kimi Raikkonen         +220                 
1:00AM          7714 Sebastian Vettel          -280     
             
Sun 3/26         7715 Esteban Ocon         +245                 
1:00AM          7716 Sergio Perez          -290