News:

Keselowski wins Clash. Speedweeks continues at Daytona

Topic: NASCAR 2017  (Read 478 times)

nascarwagers January 08, 2017, 05:02:33 AM

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I hope everyone's offseason is going well! I know I have been busy with fantasy football and other things. However, we are getting close to firing the engines again at Daytona. I wanted to go ahead and put up an official thread to get the conversation going. If you have not already seen, I have a few articles already posted including some official picks for win totals. I have also updated several pages that I will post below.

Both track and driver notes pages were updated if you would like to take a look. A few interesting tidbits:

Texas Motor Speedway is currently under a repave job and reconfiguration for turns 1 and 2. The interesting thing I saw reported on NASCAR was that they would not have a Goodyear tire test before the April Texas race. Therefore, they will be going into that race blind in terms of tire compound at a brand new surface.

Also, this pains me but they will be repaving Atlanta after the March race. I always loved how rugged Atlanta's surface was and how great of fall off there were on tires. Looks like that will be gone after this season.

Please post any other important things you may have come across, observations, questions, or simple conversation. Hope to see everyone back over the next few weeks!

2017 NASCAR Total Wins Predictions

2017 Daytona 500 Odds and Early Predictions

NASCAR Betting Driver Notes

NASCAR Handicapping Notes by Track



5mike5 January 08, 2017, 11:33:58 AM (#1)

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As usual great write up. Must have taken forever to go through all that buddy. We all appreciate oats the time and effort

And noticed we both liked 2 early plays for the 500, and they were exactly the same!!  Dillon (+3300) and truex (+2200). That's pretty crazy so makes me even more confident it's a good early read on them at nice odds

Of course also LOVE the JR season wins at OVER 1. I mean imo that can't lose barring injury. Shocked if it even pushes at 1. I've hit that hard already waiting for the lines to change so I can hit it again.

Thanks for all the write ups again buddy.

It's not far away!!!

GP January 09, 2017, 06:23:02 PM (#2)

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Great information Jay.  Like the picks and couldn't agree more that Chase over 1/2 is the best bet on the board.

Any thoughts on Championship Winner values?  I like Edwards at +1350, he was 10 or so laps away from it last year.

nascarwagers January 09, 2017, 10:30:02 PM (#3)

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Great information Jay.  Like the picks and couldn't agree more that Chase over 1/2 is the best bet on the board.

Any thoughts on Championship Winner values?  I like Edwards at +1350, he was 10 or so laps away from it last year.

My next article will be about championship futures but yes I definitely like Edwards and Hamlin at the same odds.

nascarwagers January 09, 2017, 10:36:49 PM (#4)

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One thing I might do this year is put some type of progressive betting on the championship each week. My thinking is to put at least $10 on the race winner each week and perhaps an additional 1-2 $10 bets on other drivers that are performing the best. Thinking here is that likely there will be similar bets around the top performing drivers but to keep adapting with performance from week to week. At the end of the season, you should have plenty of drivers that have a good amount of money built up with nice return.

Obviously, this strategy works best if the championship is won by a driver that has performed well all season and scored some wins. I think this is a pretty safe yet reliable return considering the last 11 years the eventual champion has had a minimum of 5 wins. Remember I am not just betting the driver that wins each week, but also the current top 2-3 drivers that are performing the best each week. Therefore if someone has multiple wins they will likely have several other bets on weeks where they did not win but still performed well.

Anyways, it is just a concept that I have been considering so that you could put a little money towards the champion each week and likely not feel any impact come out of your bankroll while still having plenty of money involved in the championship race by the end of the season. Any thoughts?

5mike5 January 09, 2017, 11:06:14 PM (#5)

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I love the idea. I was planning on doing something siniliar last year and didn't follow through at all. But it was a blessing as I wouldn't have bet Jimmie much I don't think

I think it's a great idea for like $10-$20 a week. Cause ur right won't effect the bankroll at all going small weekly but it should add up in the end for a big bonus win at seasons end if u have the champ.  U should start a thread for season if u end up doing it and anybody who does we can just post together weekly for the season

I'm game for it

Several times during the year u could have got Jimmie at great odds if I remember correctly and I'm sure it is that way with almost every driver during the ups and downs every team has during a long season

Agree Carl and Hamlin are good early plays.  Look forward to reading your write up about the championship

fullofpace January 10, 2017, 11:59:33 AM (#6)

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ive used a system of betting a championship bet each week ever since matt won back in 2004?..he was so far in front that year and the nevada books kept him in the 2/1 range for ever..made about 15k on him.  i have had some big scores doing this with the exception of stewart over edwards (and he won 5 of the ten to tie)  the chase system years were the best 4 years i had, then they had to fuck it up with this formatt.  however i did hit jj last year at 9/1 for about 10k.  (lowest win since the zero that stewart cost me)

dont just bet the race winner 2 years ago i had marty at 125/1 because he was so far ahead of 17th place he was getting in no matter. 

another strategy is use is instead of betting a harvick or jj at 4/1 to win a race i place a champ bet instead if they are higher to win championship that way if theylose the race i still have action.  did that this year with jj at chicago when had clearly the best car but lost due to a pit stop mistake.  back fires tho, last year i bet klye for championship at 18/1 instead of new hampshire and the little prick won.  but i did cash the champion bet.

anyway just some thoughts.

about elliot over 1/2, really wouldnt tie up my money on a -245 for 10 months might be better to dutch him at 12/1 each race till he wins.  and if he wins about the 8th time you bet him at increasing bets, might be a nice score.

championships odds will ajust quickly now that carl is out, might make my first bet today on kenseth

kcburg January 11, 2017, 08:27:20 AM (#7)

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I am still trying to decide if I even want to wager Nascar after some of the shady incidents that happened last year, some of which have me questioning the integrity of Nascar.  Lots of late minute cautions among other things where things seemed to just come down to a crap shoot.  Are these incidents the same as umps/refs making questionable calls in baseball and football?  I don't know.  Maybe in years past I was on the right side of those calls who knows..

Also have thought about just putting $100 on Logano every race and seeing how that works out..seeing his over under set at 3.5 so I guess I could just bet the over since it would take 4 wins at 9 to 1 or better to break even/win. 

Reigle9 January 14, 2017, 04:25:38 PM (#8)

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Any thoughts?
I don't like it because his champ odds will take a hit after a win. Maybe take the previous weeks winner if his odds get better than they were right after the win.

Reigle9 January 19, 2017, 01:10:03 PM (#9)

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see you're un-banned mike

5mike5 January 26, 2017, 09:18:26 AM (#10)

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Haven't even thought about this yet but is  BIFFLE just gonna sit out all season without a ride?

Retire already

rs1x January 26, 2017, 06:50:56 PM (#11)

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I guess I'm the only one on the board who isn't high on the 88 car. I think jr is done racing.

What do I know. my prediction is he doesn't finish the 500 and that will be his only race of the season.

Optional January 26, 2017, 06:58:51 PM (#12)

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I guess I'm the only one on the board who isn't high on the 88 car. I think jr is done racing.

What do I know. my prediction is he doesn't finish the 500 and that will be his only race of the season.

bold predicition!

What are you seeing to make you think that?

5mike5 January 26, 2017, 07:54:29 PM (#13)

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Very bold!  Hope that's wrong

 :nerves

Jr over 1 up to -165

rs1x January 27, 2017, 01:04:36 PM (#14)

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I guess I'm the only one on the board who isn't high on the 88 car. I think jr is done racing.

What do I know. my prediction is he doesn't finish the 500 and that will be his only race of the season.

bold predicition!

What are you seeing to make you think that?

Only raced a few races last season , he seems content in more of a business role less in the driver seat.  What do I know just my .2 cents I could be wrong he could win 5 races this year.