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Topic: F1 - German GP  (Read 220 times)

Optional July 16, 2014, 03:45:08 AM

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An interesting development for this weekends race happened today.

A complicated suspension system that most of the teams have been using and developing for the last few years has been ruled illegal and teams will have to remove it at short notice for this race.

Its called "FRIC" or Front Rear Inter Connected suspension. It uses hydraulics (as opposed to computer control) to adjust the stiffness on each corner to harden the front under braking or the rear under acceleration or one side when cornering.

 Basically it was an invention to get around a new rule a few years back that banned "Active Suspension" which was computer controlled and did a similar thing.



The important bit...  McLaren and Ferrari are very happy with this development as their versions of FRIC are supposed to be much less efficient than the Mercedes version. So they in particular will be advantaged. RBR system is apparently very good too as they argued to keep it for this year.

Add to that, that Hockenheim is a heavy brake usage track and temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s all weekend and this sudden change could affect some teams in ways we don't expect.

I think it opens up the chance to snag a few doggies if we read the situation right after Friday practice.


I know I rattle on about historical track suitability to each team a lot. Which might be a bit surprising considering how much the rules/cars changed this year.... but there has been a strong correlation still on most tracks.

As we only use this track for each 2nd German GP since 2006 historical data is less important... but... Ferrari have owned this track for the last 15 years.  The Mercs have struggled at both visits since their F1 return.  Lotus and Sauber usually look good here.

Lotus are worth watching as not only has their car design worked well here in the past, this race is the first time that they will have the "new version" of the Renault engine (RBR have had it already for a couple of races) which is estimated to give them an extra 60 HP and a lot more driveabilty.

Torro Rosso has been one of the most improved teams since race 1 this season and it appears they are pumping money in right now on a serious push for better results, rumoured to be because Red Bull wants to sell off their junior team soon. Close watch on whee they sit after the two Friday practice sessions.

From what I have read Williams are also concerned about the effect removing FRIC is going to have. I am also very interested to see how the Force India looks on Friday. Both those teams are on my potential to fade list.


Favorites for this race in order are Mercedes, Williams, Red Bull, Ferrari and then between Force India and McLaren.  I think Williams and Force India are probably too high in the order there.




Bets

Going to take three big longshot bets early. Again like last week I am not predicting they win, just that the odds on these three will drop like rocks if Friday plays out as I am 'hoping/predicting' early.

Alonso is going for his third win in a row of this race, coupled with the advantage he should gain from FRIC removal and Ferrari having targeted this race as when they should have seen a marked improvement after they changed their team principal a couple of months back.

Vettel for pole. He dominated Webber at this track and has started on Pole and 2nd spot last 2 visits. It will take Mercedes suffering from the FRIC removal more than Red Bull for him to take pole this year, which is a decent possibility, but even without that issue there is no way Hamilton should be 50 times lower odds than the world champ on this track.

Maldonado for top 6. I know he has only finished on the lead lap once this year and Lotus have really been crappy. But I confidently expect the Lotus car to work much much better than it did at Silverstone or Austria and Maldonado has shown good form here in both F1 and GP2.  If you want to make a safer play on him +330 for a top 10 is superb value too. But I am just playing a half unit to catch the odds and am being greedy looking at that 100/1 for a top 6.



    Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix : Fernando Alonso +5000   .5u

    Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner : Sebastian Vettel +3300  1u

    Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish : Pastor Maldonado +10000  .5u


milehigh July 16, 2014, 08:16:53 AM (#1)

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Tailing--even the Maldonado one just for a couple bucks so I'm not kicking myself if I don't take it ;-).

Any initial leans on fastest lap or was that even posted--I can't remember?

Jmac July 16, 2014, 10:13:15 AM (#2)

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Hopefully this change will give us some teams who can challenge Mercedes, or at least be with in 10 seconds of Mercedes at the end of the race.

dapperandy July 16, 2014, 10:16:22 AM (#3)

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Love your F1 write-ups, Opti, I'm on the tail train. Love me a 100-1 bet!

Optional July 16, 2014, 01:40:03 PM (#4)

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Thanks Andy :)


I hope you guys got all the way down to this line!

"I am not predicting they win, just that the odds on these three will drop like rocks if Friday plays out as I am 'hoping/predicting' early."


@MileHigh  no idea on fast lap yet.  I will be hoping we find a faster car starting toward back of the grid that might stop for tires later than all the other fast teams. Will be race day or the night before until we know if any potentials exist this week.

Optional July 16, 2014, 01:54:46 PM (#5)

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I guess I should point out that I have access to Betfair as well as 5D, so early longshot F1 bets are relatively safe for me as if I want, I can Lay against the same bets closer to race day and can probably recover 50% to 90% of my bet back in most cases if I want. Or even lock in a profit pre race. If Alonso makes pole for example and comes into say +500 from that +5000 I can lock in a guaranteed +900 result on my early bet pre race by betting against someone wanting him at +500 on Betfair.  (Lol... I bet that's clear as mud to half you Yanks!)

Not that I do lay off very often. And I'll mention it if I ever do lay off a bet I posted here. But just so you know not to jump too hard on any longshots I call early as my risk on them is extremely low.

Optional July 18, 2014, 04:41:48 AM (#6)

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Half an hour into first practice and I am liking what we are seeing so far.

Most of the cars look visibly worse handling and just about everyone has gone off track.

They are all still testing how to setup without FRIC but Merc do seem more affected than McLaren and Ferrari as strongly suspected, but Red Bull also seem to be coping better with the change initially.

Still like the Alonso and Vettel bets... Lotus have not come out of the box looking very good, so the Maldonado bet not looking promising (but its still only 30 mins in)

Torro Rosso guys look to be really fighting their car without FRIC. Unless they get on top of the change they might be a good fade.

Speaking of fades. Nothing to suggest I was wrong about Williams and Force India under performing the odds they opened at so far.

One nice confirmation is also Sauber. I mentioned this is a traditionally strong circuit for their chassis. And it would be easy to assume a smaller team like them would have a less sophisticated FRIC and therefore less affected by removal... and Sutil came out with the 7th best time out fo the first round of fast laps.

Anyway... loving it so far. Can smell bookie blood in the water due to this mix up :)

Optional July 18, 2014, 05:35:02 AM (#7)

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Practice 1

Optional July 18, 2014, 02:30:14 PM (#8)

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Practice 2





Optional July 18, 2014, 06:20:42 PM (#9)

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Qualifying Bets


  • 6002 Nico Rosberg (Qualifying)*    +155  vs Lewis Hamilton (Qualifying)
  • 6003 Sebastian Vettel (Qualifying)*    +105  vs Daniel Ricciardo (Qualifying)

Optional July 18, 2014, 06:24:07 PM (#10)

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all my quali leans.  was feeling silly...

Optional July 19, 2014, 06:12:15 AM (#11)

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P3

Optional July 19, 2014, 07:41:51 AM (#12)

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Qualifying Bets


  • 6002 Nico Rosberg (Qualifying)*    +155  vs Lewis Hamilton (Qualifying)
  • 6003 Sebastian Vettel (Qualifying)*    +105  vs Daniel Ricciardo (Qualifying)

Don't like the Vettel bet anymore. But love the Rosberg one even more than when i made it.

Made a couple of offers on Betfair I am not sure will get matched, but they are first in line. Button to qualify Top 10 -115 and Sutil to qualify Top 10 +2000

Optional July 19, 2014, 08:04:03 AM (#13)

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Here we go.

Button top 10 bet matched but not Sutil

Optional July 19, 2014, 08:12:02 AM (#14)

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Hamilton wrecks in Q1

Boom. 1st H2H wins and all other race bets just got better value.

he said brakes failed.