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Topic: F1 - Mexican GP  (Read 299 times)

Optional October 27, 2015, 03:04:23 PM

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back to back F1 race weekends.

A 'new' old track in Mexico City that was last used in 1992. It's been changed a lot and teams will be working off simulations only.

It's going to be the 2nd fastest track on the circuit after Monza and is kinda sorta similar in layout.

Mercedes smashed everyone at Monza and apart from Vettel only Mercedes engine cars finished on the lead lap.

The ONE thing that might change that dramatically is the hangover rain from the Mexican hurricane meaning this weekend may be as wet as it was in Austin.

Worth taking some small action on Ricciardo again at openers in case the rain can last all the way to the checkers for us this week.






420 Octane October 28, 2015, 11:16:06 PM (#1)

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Opti - What's the reason for playing Ricciardo? He's an expert in the rain?

Optional October 29, 2015, 09:58:26 AM (#2)

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Opti - What's the reason for playing Ricciardo? He's an expert in the rain?

He's pretty good. But the real difference is the car is better than any other in the wet.

Kyvat just an unknown in the rain really but he's probably worth taking if odds good enough too.



@Mike  don't forget this one is on in US day time again.

Optional October 29, 2015, 10:12:58 AM (#3)

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Right now forecast says;

Pretty dry for opening practice sessions on Friday

15% chance of rain for qualifying on Saturday afternoon.

30% chance of rain for the race


Odds aren't good enough on either Ricciardo or Kyvat right now. and with a dry Friday the Mercedes engine dominance should show up and make Red Bull look more like 100/1 shots I think. So if Rain looks more likely than now for quali/race we should bet those guys Friday night or Saturday early morning.

If it is looking dry, Hamilton should run away with this, if Rosberg does not put him into the wall in the first turn of the race as pay back for Ham doing that to him at start of US GP last week. and with the Championship already decided and Rosberg already having a signed contract for next year, that is not as unlikely as it might sound.

But also if dry, Williams and Force India and maybe even Lotus are pretty likely to fill the 6 spots behind the mercs... ahead of the red bulls.

If it's wet Williams will be  out of it and Toro Rosso come into top 6 calculations.


Soooooo.... right now  am not betting anything until the weather situation becomes clearer.


Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton     -185
Nico Rosberg     +285
Sebastian Vettel     +900
Valtteri Bottas     +3500
Kimi Raikkonen     +5000
Felipe Massa     +5000
Daniel Ricciardo     +5000
Daniil Kvyat     +6600
Nico Hulkenberg     +15000
Sergio Perez     +15000
Carlos Sainz Jr     +20000
Max Verstappen     +20000
Romain Grosjean     +50000
Pastor Maldonado     +50000
Fernando Alonso     +50000
Jenson Button     +75000
Felipe Nasr     +250000
Marcus Ericsson     +250000
Alexander Rossi     +500000
Will Stevens     +500000


Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner

Lewis Hamilton     -160
Nico Rosberg     +190
Sebastian Vettel     +1200
Valtteri Bottas     +4000
Daniel Ricciardo     +4000
Kimi Raikkonen     +5000
Felipe Massa     +5000
Daniil Kvyat     +5000
Max Verstappen     +15000
Carlos Sainz Jr     +20000
Nico Hulkenberg     +20000
Sergio Perez     +20000
Romain Grosjean     +50000
Pastor Maldonado     +50000
Fernando Alonso     +50000
Jenson Button     +50000
Felipe Nasr     +250000
Marcus Ericsson     +250000
Alexander Rossi     +750000
Will Stevens     +750000

Optional October 30, 2015, 01:57:28 PM (#4)

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Here's a surprise.

Sesssion started out damp and slippery but they moved to dry tires half way in.

3 Renault engines and 2 Ferraris ahead of the first Merc engine car!

And all four Renaults in the top 8

Could be just stratey decisions of course... but it is very unusual for a P1 session this year so could mean the thin air and lack of downforce is making a bigger difference than expected to pecking order.



Friday Practice Session 1

POSDRIVERNATIONALITYENTRANTTIME
1.Max VerstappenNetherlandsToro Rosso-Renault1:25.990
2.Daniil KvyatRussiaRed Bull-Renault1:26.295
3.Kimi RaikkonenFinlandFerrari1:26.295
4.Sebastian VettelGermanyFerrari1:26.886
5.Daniel RicciardoAutralianRed Bull-Renault1:27.185
6.Nico RosbergGermanyMercedes GP1:27.196
7.Valtteri BottasFinlandWilliams-Mercedes1:27.303
8.Carlos SainzSpainToro Rosso-Renault1:27.410
9.Sergio PerezMexicoForce India-Mercedes1:27.581
10.Felipe MassaBrazilWilliams-Mercedes1:27.695
11.Lewis HamiltonBritainMercedes GP1:27.723
12.Marcus EricssonSwedenSauber-Ferrari1:28.498
13.Pastor MaldonadoVenezuelaLotus-Mercedes1:28.559
14.Felipe NasrBrazilSauber-Ferrari1:28.579
15.Jolyon PalmerBritainLotus-Mercedes1:28.711
16.Nico HulkenbergGermanyForce India-Mercedes1:29.099
17.Fernando AlonsoSpainMcLaren-Honda1:30.072
18.Alexander RossiUnited StatesMarussia-Ferrari1:30.619
19.Jenson ButtonBritainMcLaren-Honda1:32.091
20.Will StevensBritainMarussia-Ferrari1:32.866

Optional October 31, 2015, 01:09:45 PM (#5)

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12 cars within a second. and would have been 13 if Kimi's engine didn't expire.

usually no one is within a  second on Mercedes.

This could be a great quali session coming up at 3pm ET


Optional October 31, 2015, 02:53:27 PM (#6)

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Vestappen to qualify top 10 -120

Optional October 31, 2015, 02:57:49 PM (#7)

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It's not raining but damp and slippery so took a small bet on Ricciardo for pole +1750


Optional November 01, 2015, 10:43:53 AM (#8)

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Weather forcast for 3pm race time is for rain. (yay)




I'm going out on a limb and going bigger than usual on Ricciardo for a Top 3. Plus some hopeful money on the win odds.





Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix
Sun 11/1  3:00PM

Nico Rosberg      +140
Lewis Hamilton      +150
Sebastian Vettel      +700
Daniel Ricciardo      +2800
Daniil Kvyat      +2800
Valtteri Bottas      +10000
Felipe Massa      +15000
Kimi Raikkonen      +20000
Max Verstappen      +20000
Sergio Perez      +30000
Carlos Sainz Jr      +40000
Nico Hulkenberg      +40000



Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish
Sun 11/1  3:00PM

Lewis Hamilton      -600
Nico Rosberg      -500
Sebastian Vettel      -175
Daniil Kvyat      +350
Daniel Ricciardo      +400
Valtteri Bottas      +800
Felipe Massa      +1000
Kimi Raikkonen      +1800
Max Verstappen      +1800
Sergio Perez      +1800
Nico Hulkenberg      +2000


Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish
Sun 11/1  3:00PM

Lewis Hamilton      -800
Nico Rosberg      -600
Sebastian Vettel      -500
Daniil Kvyat      -220
Daniel Ricciardo      -180
Valtteri Bottas      -150
Felipe Massa      +138
Sergio Perez      +200
Nico Hulkenberg      +225
Kimi Raikkonen      +250
Max Verstappen      +300
Carlos Sainz Jr      +550



Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish
Sun 11/1  3:00PM

Lewis Hamilton      -1000
Nico Rosberg      -900
Sebastian Vettel      -800
Daniel Ricciardo      -500
Valtteri Bottas      -335
Kimi Raikkonen      -250
Felipe Massa      -250
Daniil Kvyat      -250
Sergio Perez      -153
Max Verstappen      -150
Nico Hulkenberg      -150
Romain Grosjean      -125
Carlos Sainz Jr      +108
Jenson Button      +175
Pastor Maldonado      +215
Fernando Alonso      +225
Felipe Nasr      +350
Marcus Ericsson      +350




Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Fastest Lap
Sun 11/1  3:00PM

Lewis Hamilton      +148
Nico Rosberg      +275
Sebastian Vettel      +650
Kimi Raikkonen      +1450
Daniel Ricciardo      +1600
Daniil Kvyat      +1600
Felipe Massa      +4000
Valtteri Bottas      +4000
Max Verstappen      +4000
Carlos Sainz Jr      +5000
Nico Hulkenberg      +6600
Sergio Perez      +8000
Romain Grosjean      +20000
Pastor Maldonado      +20000
Fernando Alonso      +25000
Jenson Button      +25000
Felipe Nasr      +100000
Marcus Ericsson      +100000
Will Stevens      +300000


Fast lap could be anyone really. I just went small on those 5.

Reigle9 November 01, 2015, 10:48:32 AM (#9)

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Did you put your house on Riccardio? Dropped 8 points since your post.

5mike5 November 01, 2015, 11:05:08 AM (#10)

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Did you put your house on Riccardio? Dropped 8 points since your post.

Doesn't surprise me at all

Optional is by far the most knowledgable F1 handicapper I've ever seen on the forums and it's not even close.

We are VERY lucky to have him in our elite group of cappers.   Just another reason we are the best.

Optional November 01, 2015, 11:10:39 AM (#11)

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Did you put your house on Riccardio? Dropped 8 points since your post.

Nah, and took it at betfair anyway. At about +390

+400 was best odds of anywhere I looked so not surprised it got hit.

Reigle9 November 01, 2015, 11:28:16 AM (#12)

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I meant the win, but the top 3 also fell relatively.

yisman November 01, 2015, 01:51:23 PM (#13)

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look at this absurd vig

Formula 1   Mexican Grand Prix - Winning Car
Sun 11/1  3:00PM
Mercedes     -1000
Ferrari     +600
Red Bull     +1100
Williams     +6600
Force India     +15000
Toro Rosso     +20000
McLaren     +75000
Lotus     +75000
Sauber     +150000
Manor     +300000

yisman November 01, 2015, 01:53:04 PM (#14)

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#1) Sport : Motor Racing Futures
Selection : Formula 1
Selection : Formula 1 - Mexican Grand Prix
Daniel Ricciardo  +2700

Odds to win - F1 - Mexican Grand Prix

#2) Sport : Motor Racing Futures
Selection : Formula 1
Selection : Formula 1 - Mexican Grand Prix
Kimi Raikkonen   +1600

Mexican Grand Prix - Fastest Lap


#1) Sport : Motor Racing Futures
Selection : Formula 1
Selection : Formula 1 - Mexican Grand Prix
Sebastian Vettel  +700

Odds to win - F1 - Mexican Grand Prix