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Truex wins Championship! Thanks everyone for a great year!

Topic: 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup Betting Predictions  (Read 963 times)

nascarwagers September 14, 2015, 05:47:59 PM

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Let the Chase talk begin  :pop

2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup Betting Predictions


Bet for the Championship now at 5Dimes:  Chase Championship Odds


fullofpace September 14, 2015, 08:03:20 PM (#1)

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thank you jay for starting this thread.

from a "i already bet" perspective i have:

best play is kurt:  played at 40/1, 20/1 and 12/1 for over 24k payout
                          played truex prior to vegas at 125/1, then after pocono 40/1 for about 18k payout
                          got klye at 12/1 and 10/1 for about a 12k payout
                          have denny, carl and harvick as break even guys, since im in about 5k.

losers are kahne and larson.

was waiting to bet jj, joey and matt.

will now need to assess the odds, but going forward this is what i think may happen.

first three races will let clint (unless he wins nh) menard, newman and a fan fav Jr out of the mix.  Jr has just been a top 10 out side of restrcitor plates and that newman, menard points racing isnt going to work this year as others saw the success of him last year.

next 3 call for a win to advance but 5 others on points.  so with that

kansas is jgr, charlotte will be penske, talledage ( we dont know as they are going to change package for saftey)

final 8 shall be
joey, brad, harvick, klye, kurt, gordon, hamlin, matt, jj

then the final 4 (martinville, tx, pho)
hamlin or jj at matinsville
everyone at texas
joey, harv at pho

leaves the final as
hamlin, jj, matt and joey.

harvick misses and doesnt win pho.

therefore last race in homestead and i see it like this

hamlin overthinks it again, jj is good but left side tire failure early comes down to matt or joey and joey misses a lug nut thus making matt your champ.

shit, i got no matt for this year, guess im taking 6 or 7/1 come tuesday

GamesToBet September 14, 2015, 08:10:02 PM (#2)

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Here's what I got, I think Kyle Busch has the best shot at winning the 2015 Championship   


9/13/15 7:42pm   $250.00   $1,500.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kevin Harvick +600
8/18/15 8:04am   $127.22   $2,226.35   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Carl Edwards +1750
8/14/15 4:50pm   $25.00   $2,750.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Ryan Newman +11000
8/14/15 4:50pm   $50.00   $5,875.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Clint Bowyer +12000
7/29/15 1:46pm   $25.00   $3,000.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Jamie McMurray +12000
5/18/15 6:50pm   $100.00   $3,500.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kyle Busch +3500
1/29/15 10:22pm   $100.00   $4,000.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kurt Busch +4000

nascarwagers September 14, 2015, 08:53:16 PM (#3)

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Here's what I got   


9/13/15 7:42pm   $250.00   $1,500.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kevin Harvick +600
8/18/15 8:04am   $127.22   $2,226.35   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Carl Edwards +1750
8/14/15 4:50pm   $25.00   $2,750.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Ryan Newman +11000
8/14/15 4:50pm   $50.00   $5,875.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Clint Bowyer +12000
7/29/15 1:46pm   $25.00   $3,000.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Jamie McMurray +12000
5/18/15 6:50pm   $100.00   $3,500.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kyle Busch +3500
1/29/15 10:22pm   $100.00   $4,000.00   Pending   Sprint Cup Championship 2015 - Kurt Busch +4000

God I wish I would have bet Kyle @ +3500... In fact, I wish I would have bet Championship odds during the season more. I like your chances bud  :cheers

nascarwagers September 14, 2015, 08:58:16 PM (#4)

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thank you jay for starting this thread.

from a "i already bet" perspective i have:

best play is kurt:  played at 40/1, 20/1 and 12/1 for over 24k payout
                          played truex prior to vegas at 125/1, then after pocono 40/1 for about 18k payout
                          got klye at 12/1 and 10/1 for about a 12k payout
                          have denny, carl and harvick as break even guys, since im in about 5k.

losers are kahne and larson.

was waiting to bet jj, joey and matt.

will now need to assess the odds, but going forward this is what i think may happen.

first three races will let clint (unless he wins nh) menard, newman and a fan fav Jr out of the mix.  Jr has just been a top 10 out side of restrcitor plates and that newman, menard points racing isnt going to work this year as others saw the success of him last year.

next 3 call for a win to advance but 5 others on points.  so with that

kansas is jgr, charlotte will be penske, talledage ( we dont know as they are going to change package for saftey)

final 8 shall be
joey, brad, harvick, klye, kurt, gordon, hamlin, matt, jj

then the final 4 (martinville, tx, pho)
hamlin or jj at matinsville
everyone at texas
joey, harv at pho

leaves the final as
hamlin, jj, matt and joey.

harvick misses and doesnt win pho.

therefore last race in homestead and i see it like this

hamlin overthinks it again, jj is good but left side tire failure early comes down to matt or joey and joey misses a lug nut thus making matt your champ.

shit, i got no matt for this year, guess im taking 6 or 7/1 come tuesday

Good breakdown bud  :cheers

My only big difference in that breakdown is I think Junior has been running strong enough to keep advancing. Last week was a perfect example, struggled like hell in practice qualified in the back but by the end of the night he posted a 5th place finish. Like the way the schedule fits in for him too. Unfortunately Hendrick not really running good at all so I cannot fault anyone for fading those guys, even though that seems like a cardinal sin lol.

GamesToBet September 15, 2015, 09:29:26 AM (#5)

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  :<  Dimes just released Parlay-able Championship odds for all 16 drivers!

Stats1 September 15, 2015, 12:59:33 PM (#6)

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few championship futures I have played thru out the year
Kurt 12-1
Truex 15-1
Carl 15-1
Mcmurray 100-1
 looking at 2 more drivers and that will do it 4 me  thinking Logano and 1 more

nascarwagers September 15, 2015, 09:14:56 PM (#7)

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few championship futures I have played thru out the year
Kurt 12-1
Truex 15-1
Carl 15-1
Mcmurray 100-1
 looking at 2 more drivers and that will do it 4 me  thinking Logano and 1 more

Good luck Stats, I think I am going to throw a few dollars on drivers throughout the season next year more regularly

5mike5 September 18, 2015, 11:23:06 AM (#8)

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Wish I would have bet more on championship this year as well.  Started year saying I was gonna make a bet every week 1 bet, but never ended up doing it just have 2 bets total on championship I think.  But I will take more during early stages of chase on guys that don't do that well maybe on 1st race of each bracket stage or some longer shots b4 the weekend. Just not sure yet

Next year I'm def Gonna  have to figure out a strategy for the chase starting b4 the season and early in the season more. 

5mike5 September 19, 2015, 12:50:26 PM (#9)

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I know his head has been as down as it gets for Gordon but is there any point since he's almost +3500 in this format last 4 anybody can win it of course worth a bet?

It is for me why not hope for miracle Ending


He wasn't one oft 2 eArly  bets and just wondered what u guys think ?    I'm leaning even with big odds it's useless but at those odds wouldn't hurt either if u believe in miracles  and I do and exactly why I nailed that net at +3500 and u guys should really consider it.  If it makes final. 4 and u don't u will kick urself.

Reigle9 September 22, 2015, 10:02:51 AM (#10)

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Harvick only drops to 6/1. Wasn't he about 4/1 before?

5mike5 September 22, 2015, 10:12:36 AM (#11)

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Harvick only drops to 6/1. Wasn't he about 4/1 before?

I think he should more than that. Terrible odds IMO.  He's was around that reigne yeah.  Overrated again as usual

But I don't think he's winning it so maybe that's why.  I've said it all year.    He's been VERY overrated all year.  He's had a lot of problems with team overall when u think about it.  Unless ur get points for being fav from practices. lmao. That's why ice I my beg him 4-5 times in 27 races I think and hates doing it all but the time I've hit with him and was parlays when he did so had great odds. I haven't bet him as a stand alone winner all year long I don't think.

He has 0 room for ever even in points

I think he's in trouble already but that's just me.

5mike5 September 22, 2015, 10:25:29 AM (#12)

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And harvick has 2 straight 3rd place finishes here at NH but he also is usually tip 10-12 but has also has some hiccups but just an avg finish doesn't get him in a great position unless ALOT of guys have terrible days and still would just pull around even with 5-7. Guys


And he only has 1 single win at NH way back in 2006 so that's very very unlikely to happen to just punch his ticket

( lead combined 164 of 600 laps and lead 1 lap previous 12 races @ NH)

fullofpace September 22, 2015, 05:21:07 PM (#13)

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after week 1.

not a bad result for me but would have loved to see kurt win.  (at 24k a free pass to round two wold have been sweet)  however, the result not that bad as i have both hamlin (9600) and carl (4800, small loser).  really upset with truex call for 2 tires. was running 8th at the time and finsihed 13th in real danger of missing the cut.

going forward i think this weeks bet has to be on jeff at 25/1 for championship.  as expected the hendricks cars came back to life after a summer of, for lack of a better term, who gives a shit.  the areo package went back to pre jgr dominance and the early leaders went right back to the top ( harv, tuex, joey) after the reinstatment kurt was right there every week as well.  the unknown was klye.  he missed all the 2015 package then took off during the "test" season as nascar tried to figure out next year's shit.  as we all know, klye could drive a dump truck to the front, but i wanted to see how he did this week.  and lookie lookie, to the front.  throw out hamlins spind and the other 2 were about to be lapped on their own.  Matt just flat out sucked but ended up 4th do to wtf ever happened.

so, jeff at 25/1 offers some value since he should advance.  then its kansas, char, and tall.  also joey held steady at 6/1 or 7/1 around town.  Joey has held up all year only to be 2nd or 3rd fiddle to harvick.  with harvick in a real bad spot, i think joey at 6 is some value.

on to harvick.  at 6/1 no value what so ever ( i got him at 6 in feb) was hoping for an over adjust to maybe 8 or 10.  this guy has only been top 2 twelve times this year.  making up 22 points is easy, but passing 4 guys is not.  he had nh at least a top 2 till that caution comes out and dover ran ran 2nd this year on old tires and had by far the car to beat last year in both races but a lug nut took of valve stem (wtf are the chances of that) when he had by far the best car.  again running top 5 in nh and dover is solid chances, but has to have a few guys finish outside top 15 (including jeff, jr and truex) which may be tough.

in review, i still like my position as posted earlier.  however, looking to add jeff at 25/1 and joey at 6 going forward.

good luck gents

5mike5 September 22, 2015, 05:43:20 PM (#14)

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Jeff was 35-1 earlier at dimes.   Odds are great just jot sure he can make final 4

He's now 28-1

Final 4 is just a crap shoot really that's all u can really do handicapping wise and hope for the best for the picks everybody has so far and I'm not sure gordon can do that but I liked the odds too for sure and didn't pass it up. B