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Topic: The BELMONT--possible triple crown)  (Read 275 times)

5mike5 June 02, 2015, 05:37:03 PM

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Just figured a lot of us would bet on this or at least watch As American Pharaoh goes for the triple crown in this last leg of the triple crown. 

So I went ahead and made a thread for everybody to talk and put who they like to win and or bet on raceday.  And I stuck to stay near top of he page just because of just how huge if an event it will
Be on Saturday.   Think the real rCe xo stage or the race itself is around 5:30pm

For me I'll just be betting longshots of course if I bet it at all but in excited to watch and root on a triple crown. 

How long has it been now over 40 years since there has been a triple crown won???   Like 40+ years?


Reigle9 June 02, 2015, 05:55:55 PM (#1)

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If I had to bet right now I'd take the field +100.

rife21 June 02, 2015, 06:34:26 PM (#2)

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All of my pick 3's, pick 4's, win wagers, tri keys will be around Keen Ice i have had this horse marked for this race since early january and if it comes through ill be signing alot of tickets

Wog Dog June 02, 2015, 06:53:08 PM (#3)

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Put a small bet on the field +105 few days ago. Might add to it if the public pounds the favorite before closing. Also depends on track conditions, weather and other things. I would like to see a Triple Crown winner though so I would be happy either way.

Reno Paul June 02, 2015, 09:51:15 PM (#4)

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Probably gonna key a couple trifectas. As long as there is still 8 horses in the field.

Trident June 03, 2015, 08:30:11 AM (#5)

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Two very knowledgeable guys I follow on Twitter if anyone is interested in following.

Anthony J Stabile @TheBigAStabile He is the nuts when it comes to New York racing, Belmont is his best track.

Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno He follows racing coast to coast, tends to concentrate on the better horses & stake races.

Reigle9 June 03, 2015, 08:56:40 AM (#6)

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Two very knowledgeable guys I follow on Twitter if anyone is interested in following.

Anthony J Stabile @TheBigAStabile He is the nuts when it comes to New York racing, Belmont is his best track.

Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno He follows racing coast to coast, tends to concentrate on the better horses & stake races.
Well if there's something I need, it's more shit to bet on.


 :thumpup

Trident June 05, 2015, 07:58:56 AM (#7)

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Two very knowledgeable guys I follow on Twitter if anyone is interested in following.

Anthony J Stabile @TheBigAStabile He is the nuts when it comes to New York racing, Belmont is his best track.


Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

The final leg of the "Triple Crown" takes place this Saturday as American Pharoah will look to capture the 2015 Belmont Stakes and become the 12th horse to capture the Triple Crown. Anthony Stabile breaks down all eight runners for the Belmont.

1 Mubtaahij 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mike de Kock (Debut)

My Kentucky Derby selection looked like he was running on a treadmill throughout. He broke in midpack, stayed in midpack before making a very brief run on the turn and finished midpack. If it wasn’t the Kentucky Derby, you’d have thought they were giving him a race. I doubt that was the intention but perhaps it was the outcome. All of the knocks on him going into the Derby…no time to acclimate, no U.S. prep, a foreign rider…they’ve all vanished. He’s been at Belmont for several weeks, ran in Louisville and gets one of the leading riders on the N.Y. circuit. He’s been stabled in the barn of Christophe Clement, trainer of last years’ winner Tonalist, and Clement recommended Ortiz to de Kock when he inquired as to what local rider he should get. The Belmont almost always unfolds like a European-style race – go slow early, try to accelerate late – and that’s exactly what this guy did in the UAE Derby. He should be right behind the two speed horses in here then tip on the turn. And then he answers the question as to whether or not he’s good enough. I think he is. Though there are other’s in here I’ll be using in multi-race exotics and in gimmicks.

2 Tale of Verve 15/1 Gary Stevens (3-10) Dallas Stewart (0-4)

He’s certainly thrived since Stewart took the blinkers off back in March and the distances of his races have gotten longer. Went from a maiden tally straight to the Preakness and finished second, seven lengths behind American Pharoah. Unfortunately, I feel like that performance is dressed up. Third place finisher Divining Rod moved too soon into the winner and staggered through the lane, allowing this guy to pick up the pieces. I think the deluge moved him up as well as he is bred to love a wet track. One of three, along with Frammento and Keen Ice, in here still eligible for an entry level allowance race. He gets a rider change to Stevens who has a fantastic record in the event and Stewart has a knack for getting longshots into the exotics in these American classics, see Golden Soul and Commanding Curve in the 2013 and 2014 renewals of the Derby, but this race doesn’t really set up for this guy and his late run.

3 Madefromlucky 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (2-18)

He’ll try to emulate 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist by using a win in the Peter Pan, the local prep for this, as a springboard to an upset in here. He finished second to American Pharoah in the Rebel then fourth behind him in the Arkansas Derby by open lengths before his most recent tally. I’m not sure he beat anything last out and question what was behind and around him at Oaklawn. For all of Pletcher’s failures in the Derby and Preakness (he’s a combined 1 for 50) his horses always seem to fire in this race. Thankfully for him his success this year doesn’t rest solely on this guy because I’m not a fan.

4 Frammento 30/1 Mike Smith (2-16) Nick Zito (2-24)

It’s déjà vu all over again!!! There is a Triple Crown on the line and Brooklyn’s own Nick Zito has a 30-1 shot in the race. In 2004, Smarty Jones had to hold the lead for “just one more minute,” according to legendary track announcer Tom Durkin but he couldn’t, as Birdstone ran him down in the final furlong. Then in 2008, when it appeared as if Big Brown had to fall down to lose, he almost did just that as he was eased in the stretch while Da’ Tara impossibly took them gate to wire. This year, he teams up with fellow two time winner and Hall of Famer Mike Smith with a colt that would seem to need the ultimate pace collapse…….or would he? He did sit just three lengths off the pace when he broke his maiden at second asking so maybe Smith will keep him a bit closer in here. Of all the longshots, he’s the only one that I believe merits any consideration. Things would have to break perfectly for him to win but I would not be surprised if he grabbed a share.

5 American Pharoah 3/5 Victor Espinoza (0-4) Bob Baffert (1-9)

At around 7:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday, June 6th 2015, his name will be on a list that includes Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed or Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome. I think that latter trio will have some company. He’s been perfect in six starts since losing his debut, including Derby and Preakness scores. He’s facing just seven rivals in here, has drawn well and has enough speed to make the race go through him. He’s trained by a guy that’s in the Hall of Fame, has won 11 Triple Crown races already and just about every other major contest in this country. And he’s ridden by a guy that….um….er…. Look, Espinoza has won the Derby three times and the Preakness twice but simply hasn’t performed well when the TRUE pressure mounted. He’s going to be involved in the proverbially chess match of his life through the opening panels of this race with Hall of Famer John Velazquez, one of the best in the business in the last quarter of a century. And Victor Espinoza has about as much of a shot at outsmarting Johnny V then I would have had at beating the late Bobby Fischer. This will be his third attempt at a Triple Crown and Baffert’s fourth. As impressive as the sounds, the flip side is that they’ve come away empty-handed every time.

6 Frosted 5/1 Joel Rosario (1-4) Kiaran McLaughlin (1-4)

Your fourth place Derby finisher was one of the only horses in the field to make up serious ground and that was after a wide run throughout. He has an all-important race over the track, trains here and his trainer, who won this in 2006 with Jazil, is dying to run this horse. McLaughlin did a tremendous job with this horse since his unexpected collapse in the Fountain of Youth and has him poised for a big run. Like last year’s winner, he’s ridden by Rosario and by the brilliant sire Tapit. McLaughlin has said the plan is to have him closer, so when the real running begins I expect this guy to be making a serious rally. A certain win contender who will be on every single one of my tickets.

7 Keen Ice 20/1 Kent Desormeaux (1-8) Dale Romans (0-5)

Another of the longshots that would need a complete pace collapse to have any chance to win this race. Since breaking his maiden at Churchill last September, he’s been off the board four times and third in the Remsen last year and Risen Star this year. He’s by Curlin, who was a solid second to the filly Rags to Riches in the 2007 renewal, but will need to improve off of his seventh place Derby finish to have any shot here. I don’t like the way the race sets up for him and think he’s in way too tough.

8 Materiality 6/1 John Velazquez (2-18) Todd Pletcher (2-18)

To me, he’s the real wild card in this race, a race that could very well hinge on what his connections decide to do at the break. If they want the lead, I’m sure Espinoza and American Pharoah will be more than happy to give it to him. But if Johnny decides to let Espinoza dictate the pace, he makes the champ do all of the heavy lifting in a 12 furlong race. He’s also a wild card because we honestly don’t know how good he is. Pletcher rules the roost at Gulfstream, where this horse won the first three starts of his career, including the Florida Derby. Then, in the Derby, he lost all chance at the break when he didn’t come away well. I did not like how he reacted when he was in and amongst horses but that shouldn’t be a problem here since he’s drawn outside the rest and there are only seven others in here. Again, Pletcher does well in the Belmont and he’s aggressive in placing his runners. Dunkirk showed uncharacteristic speed in 2009 when he held on for place, Stay Thirsty was forwardly placed throughout when second in 2011 and Commissioner missed by just a head when he tried taking the field gate-to-wire just last year. Plus, he’s by 205 Belmont winner Afleet Alex so he shouldn’t mind the added distance.

Wog Dog June 06, 2015, 07:04:09 AM (#8)

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Thanks for the write up. I have almost every horse in this race covered in some way, shape, or form. I faded Keen Ice although he is covered with the field bet. I had to find some way to bet AP just for a small cover so I stuck him in a 5 team French Open(juiced favorites) parlay. I have another French Open 7 team parlay with only 2 legs left but I'm gonna save that one for the Pocono Cup race.

Optional June 06, 2015, 10:35:59 AM (#9)

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It's a good name for a triple crown winner. American Pharoah

Reigle9 June 06, 2015, 10:38:28 AM (#10)

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It's a good name for a triple crown winner. American Pharoah
No fusaichi pegasus, that's for sure.

AP is still too foreign for my liking though. I want my horse to be called baldfuckingeagle.

5mike5 June 06, 2015, 10:39:50 AM (#11)

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Bald eagle.  :lol

Reigle9 June 06, 2015, 10:42:58 AM (#12)

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Bald eagle.  :lol
I started slamming vodker early. I get funnier with every drink imo.

Trident June 06, 2015, 04:24:20 PM (#13)

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Old lady is killing me with her honey do list today.   :whip

I am going to play Mubtaahij to win, no hookups or gimmick bets.

Optional June 06, 2015, 04:56:59 PM (#14)

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Sounds good to me. Mubtaahij 14/1 fixed odds at my Aussie book. Using a $25 freeplay.