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Topic: Sonoma and Road America Early Picks  (Read 233 times)

nascarwagers June 19, 2014, 03:33:20 AM

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For anyone getting a late start to the week, here are the plays I have posted thus far.

Sonoma and Road America Early Race Picks


Also, you can still get good odds on the favorites for the Sprint Cup Race at BookMaker.eu. Gordon at +600, Busch at +800, and Harvick at +800 currently which is a good bit better than Dimes and others right now. Both Dimes and Carbon only had Busch at +500, so definitely got some extra value there.


Optional June 19, 2014, 07:35:05 AM (#1)

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What odds do you think I need to make Ambrose a +EV bet?

nascarwagers June 19, 2014, 11:27:10 AM (#2)

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What odds do you think I need to make Ambrose a +EV bet?

Honestly bud I don't know. I still think he is over valued. He has hung around the 5 to 1 range but he has only been in contention here once in 2010 where as Watkins Glen he has been much better. I mean I understand why he is listed at that type of price, hands down he is an excellent road racer. However, I think people can only take him or Gordon. No way they can take both unless that's their only bets. I personally like Gordon a lot more than Ambrose especially if it comes down to a strategy for track position or a late pit stop to win track position. #24 team has been really good on pit road this year.

Optional June 19, 2014, 11:37:26 AM (#3)

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I'm hoping he might slip to +750 territory if he doesnt qualify on pole (which he doesn't even seem to try that hard to do in road course quali imho)

His record is shitty at Sonoma compared what was always expected of him... but the same reason still exists why so much was expected. Not being favorite can only help him mentally I think.

5mike5 June 19, 2014, 12:01:56 PM (#4)

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I took Busch and bowyer only so far on openers

nascarwagers June 19, 2014, 12:55:16 PM (#5)

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I took Busch and bowyer only so far on openers

 :thumpup my only two picks as well

5mike5 June 19, 2014, 06:33:25 PM (#6)

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I took Busch and bowyer only so far on openers

 :thumpup my only two picks as well
I saw nothing else with a damn value wise I imo.  Didn't evenike Kurt +850 but he isn't gonna get better so had to take him and just gotta be crazy not to take bowyer near 20-1 that's NUTZ odds by the books imo win or lose tons of value in that play

Strategy could get crazy though with so many needing a win and chase starts in just what 5-6 races?   Only thing I think makes Gordon dangerous but I have no faith in him way too many have caught up to he old guard now.  Smoke I would still consider though.  And who knows who I may consider in a parlay with a prop or h2h

But I'm more thaniky finished. With CUP plays til raceday.  I think there's always great h2h oppurtunity out there at Sonoma.  I've done great with those here in the past

Only way is play Ambrose is last-leg of a parlay that's already won up to that point or on raceday with 1 other play on a 2-slot parlay.  Might be smart to have a few of those and just longer odds on star8 picks which I won't have many of.  Doubt I have too many plays period to win single

nascarwagers June 21, 2014, 02:25:55 PM (#7)

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Both qualifying picks cash, 4 unit profit  :moneypile

5mike5 June 21, 2014, 05:39:43 PM (#8)

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Another great qualifying day for MR QUALIFYING BETTOR.  Best I've ever seen at it by far at that specific area

 :bravo

nascarwagers June 21, 2014, 07:26:07 PM (#9)

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Another great qualifying day for MR QUALIFYING BETTOR.  Best I've ever seen at it by far at that specific area

 :bravo

Thanks bud  :cheers