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Topic: F1 -Monaco Grand Prix  (Read 267 times)

Optional May 23, 2015, 08:19:56 PM

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I've been a bit too snowed under to keep up the reading and research to have felt confident posting F1 threads last couple of races.

But here's my educated guesses for Monaco and a couple of notes.

Williams not able to heat tyres up enough to put in fast single quali laps. They should be better in the race but top 10 is about best they can expect.

Red Bull did a big rear end update which has really helped them at Monaco, giving them much better rear grip and traction out of the 19 corners.Ricciaro seemed genuinely dissapointed he missed out on 3rd grid spot (he qualified 4th behind Hamilton, Rosberg and vettel)

The Ferrari's also had some troubles with getting the tyres in the right temp zone. During Q3 as the track got cooler they became vulnerable to both red bulls for single lap speed.

Worth checking the weather closer to race time and if less than 20c at race time maybe fade Ferrari in some matchups.

Lotus were supposed to be awesome here... but hasnt worked out that way in quali.

Dont forget Sainz copped a quali penalty and will be starting from pit lane. Grosjean also has a 5 place grid penalty so starts about 16th.




Race Matchups - Monaco Grand Prix - Circuit of Monte Carlo - Monte Carlo, Monaco - MSNBC

Sun 5/24         7701 Lewis Hamilton         -450                 
8:00AM          7702 Nico Rosberg          +330       

May as well bet either driver to win at -280 or +430  instead of these odds head to head.
   

Sun 5/24         7703 Sebastian Vettel         -505                 
8:00AM          7704 Kimi Raikkonen          +365         

Tough to see Kimi beating Seb from 3 rows further back on the grid but those odds make it worth some thought.



Sun 5/24         7705 Daniel Ricciardo         -280                 
8:00AM          7706 Daniil Kvyat          +220         

Too many reliability issues to take Dan as juiced fave but he should very well this race.


Sun 5/24         7707 Sergio Perez         -110                 
8:00AM          7708 Max Verstappen          -120         

Love this bet


Sun 5/24         7709 Pastor Maldonado         -250                 
8:00AM          7710 Romain Grosjean          +190   

You could bet Grosjean based on Maldonado being so crash prone I guess. But starting 7th and 16th respectively thats the only way Romain will beat him.       


Sun 5/24         7711 Felipe Massa         -225                 
8:00AM          7712 Valtteri Bottas          +175      

Starting 16th and 18th there is every chance Bottas could be past Massa by the end of lap 1. Like those odds.
   

Sun 5/24         7713 Jenson Button         -150                 
8:00AM          7714 Fernando Alonso          +120         

McLaren having trouble with their new MGU-K system (energy recovery from turbo) and i think the only bet on them should be first to retire.



Sun 5/24         7715 Felipe Nasr         -250                 
8:00AM          7716 Marcus Ericsson          +190   

Like the Williams pair these guys start 2 rows apart and either could be ahead after 1 lap. Which makes +190 on Ericsson look like value to me.

       

Sun 5/24         7717 Will Stevens         -335                 
8:00AM          7718 Roberto Merhi          +255         

Not sure if this isnt a bad line.  Merhi has been faster in practice and through quali until the last few seconds when Stevens pipped him for 2nd last on the grid. Not sure I am missing soemthing here. Dont get the huge odds on Merhi.


Sun 5/24         7719 Daniel Ricciardo         -125                  
8:00AM          7720 Kimi Raikkonen          -105           

Expecting a good race from Dan. Kimi wont get him if Dan does have a good race.  Nice bet I think.


Sun 5/24         7721 Max Verstappen         -160                 
8:00AM          7722 Pastor Maldonado          +130           


Too juicy but think Verstappen will win it.


Sun 5/24         7723 Nico Hulkenberg         -115                  
8:00AM          7724 Fernando Alonso          -115                 


Go the Hulk. McLaren has shown good speed but I expect will struggle in race trim and with keeping engine going.





Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Lewis Hamilton      -280
Nico Rosberg      +430
Sebastian Vettel      +1550
Daniel Ricciardo      +3500
Kimi Raikkonen      +5600
Pastor Maldonado      +45000
Carlos Sainz Jr      +55000
Max Verstappen      +55000
Sergio Perez      +70000
Valtteri Bottas      +80000
Jenson Button      +85000
Romain Grosjean      +100000
Felipe Massa      +110000
Fernando Alonso      +110000
Nico Hulkenberg      +170000
Felipe Nasr      +440000
Daniil Kvyat      +450000
Marcus Ericsson      +550000
Roberto Merhi      +850000
Will Stevens      +850000


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - Top 3 Finish
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Lewis Hamilton      -670
Nico Rosberg      -650
Sebastian Vettel      -270
Kimi Raikkonen      +360
Daniel Ricciardo      +425   <---  if temp cold hammer this one.
Daniil Kvyat      +1000
Carlos Sainz Jr      +2500
Max Verstappen      +3600
Pastor Maldonado      +4500
Jenson Button      +8000
Felipe Massa      +8300
Fernando Alonso      +8800
Sergio Perez      +10000
Valtteri Bottas      +11000
Romain Grosjean      +17000
Nico Hulkenberg      +30000
Felipe Nasr      +66000
Marcus Ericsson      +85000
Roberto Merhi      +225000
Will Stevens      +225000


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Lewis Hamilton      -850
Nico Rosberg      -850
Sebastian Vettel      -650
Daniel Ricciardo      -275
Kimi Raikkonen      -250
Daniil Kvyat      -230
Max Verstappen      +300 
Carlos Sainz Jr      +325
Sergio Perez      +435
Pastor Maldonado      +450  <-- Maldonado also a shot if he can finish the race without damage.... but that seems unlikely based on the first 6 races this year :D
Jenson Button      +475
Felipe Massa      +600
Valtteri Bottas      +620
Fernando Alonso      +1000
Romain Grosjean      +1200
Nico Hulkenberg      +1200
Felipe Nasr      +2800
Marcus Ericsson      +3700
Roberto Merhi      +27500
Will Stevens      +27500


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Lewis Hamilton      -960
Nico Rosberg      -930
Sebastian Vettel      -850
Kimi Raikkonen      -600
Daniel Ricciardo      -410
Daniil Kvyat      -275
Sergio Perez      -170
Carlos Sainz Jr      -165
Pastor Maldonado      -145
Max Verstappen      -135
Felipe Massa      +100
Jenson Button      +100
Fernando Alonso      +130
Romain Grosjean      +150
Valtteri Bottas      +155
Nico Hulkenberg      +175
Felipe Nasr      +400
Marcus Ericsson      +660
Roberto Merhi      +5500
Will Stevens      +5500


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - Fastest Lap
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Lewis Hamilton      +120
Nico Rosberg      +255
Sebastian Vettel      +900
Kimi Raikkonen      +1100
Valtteri Bottas      +6600
Daniil Kvyat      +8800
Felipe Massa      +10000
Daniel Ricciardo      +10000
Romain Grosjean      +10000
Pastor Maldonado      +10000
Carlos Sainz Jr      +12500
Max Verstappen      +12500
Fernando Alonso      +15000
Jenson Button      +20000
Nico Hulkenberg      +33000
Sergio Perez      +33000
Felipe Nasr      +55000
Marcus Ericsson      +55000
Roberto Merhi      +300000
Will Stevens      +300000


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - Winning Car
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Mercedes      -930
Ferrari      +1000
Red Bull      +10000
Williams      +50000
McLaren      +55000
Lotus      +55000
Toro Rosso      +55000
Force India      +110000
Sauber      +220000
Marussia      +550000


Formula 1   Monaco Grand Prix - First Driver Retirement
Sun 5/24  8:00AM

Pastor Maldonado      +1200
Daniil Kvyat      +1400
Max Verstappen      +1600
Jenson Button      +1600
Fernando Alonso      +1600

Carlos Sainz      +1800
Romain Grosjean      +1800
Nico Hulkenberg      +1800
Roberto Merhi      +2000
Will Stevens      +2000
Marcus Ericsson      +2000
Sergio Perez      +2000
Daniel Ricciardo      +2200
Kimi Raikkonen      +2400
Felipe Nasr      +2500
Felipe Massa      +2800
Valtteri Bottas      +2800
Nico Rosberg      +2800
Sebastian Vettel      +2800
Lewis Hamilton      +2800
No Retirement      +4000





vegas native May 24, 2015, 12:30:22 AM (#1)

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I've been waiting all week for you to post this thread opti, sucks you are getting hammered with snow. I went with rosberg and vettel for the win just to force me to wake up early haha. Rosberg would have had the pole if he wouldn't have locked up the brakes in Q3. Good luck to everyone

5mike5 May 24, 2015, 04:57:06 AM (#2)

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Kimi "the iceman" for the "fastest lap" as always for me.   

(+1100).  Straight up just threw out $40 on it

Unless opti or trident likes a parlayables fav I may take 1-2 of those. If I don't post again I fell back asleep and that 1 bet is all I'll have.   Got my alarm get for 8am (local) when it starts I think

I'm ready to warm-up the best day in motor sports of the entire year!!!!!

GOODLUCK today guys!!!!

Trident May 24, 2015, 07:11:23 AM (#3)

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I threw a little bet on Vettel 18/1 since I am up and can watch the race, probably throwing away money betting against the Mercedes but what the hell.

Wog Dog May 24, 2015, 07:20:10 AM (#4)

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I would have put a small bet on Vettel at 18/1 if I could parlay it. Guess I will do the usual and open a parlay with Hamilton to win. I noticed at 5Dimes you can't parlay multiple things together on F1 races. Just for the heck of it I tried parlaying a few different things. Hamilton leads after lap 1 can't use with anything else, safety car used after formation can't use with anything else, a few h2h together, a top 3 with a top 6, fastest lap. Can't do anything.

Optional May 24, 2015, 07:34:11 AM (#5)

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203 Total drivers to finish GP over 15½      +170

Optional May 24, 2015, 07:48:04 AM (#6)

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Sun is out and no clouds. About 20c and looks like rising rather than falling right now if it moves.

No angle to play for the cold track affecting Ferrari and Williams.



Also, adding 5 bucks each on Massa +10000 and Bottas +6500 for fast lap. Looks like the Williams cars are both starting on Super Soft tyres so there is a chance they plan to 2 stop and run the supersofts twice. (eevryone else looks like they plan to 1 stop)

Trident May 24, 2015, 08:09:42 AM (#7)

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Vettel needed to gain a position at the start which he didn't, game set match for Mercedes.  :!

Optional May 24, 2015, 08:29:21 AM (#8)

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Vettel needed to gain a position at the start which he didn't, game set match for Mercedes.  :!

Yeah and Ricciardo lost a spot to Kyvat too. So cant challenge Vettel. sigh.


Maldonado first retirement. Has never managed to finish a Monaco GP  :lol

5mike5 May 24, 2015, 08:38:29 AM (#9)

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Vettel needed to gain a position at the start which he didn't, game set match for Mercedes.  :!

GREAT to see u back Trident

we were ta;liking PM every week and u just disappeared....

was hoping a tragety had not happen to u or ur loved ones

sorry about ur back ut glad ur still kickin :)

missed ya buddy

 :thumpup

Optional May 24, 2015, 08:44:08 AM (#10)

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Oh man. Verstappen's shot at top 6 just killed in the pits by a 30 second stop :(

Optional May 24, 2015, 08:48:00 AM (#11)

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Merhi is 20 seconds ahead of Stevens as they approach first pit stops.

Wish  I had been able to hammer that +255 head 2 head bet.

5mike5 May 24, 2015, 08:56:56 AM (#12)

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i freaking fell back asleep (of course was posting at like 430am..lol) and missed monoco start.....

only bet i got in was kimi fastest lap which i bet every race i bet on F1

GOODLUCK to u other guys betting on it!!!!

 :cheers

Optional May 24, 2015, 09:01:29 AM (#13)

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Alonso's McLaren finally expires as predicted. Lasted too long for my first retirement bet though. Damn Maldonado :(

Optional May 24, 2015, 09:33:43 AM (#14)

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wow, Hamilton may have just thrown the race away by pitting under safety car when Rosberg and Vettel stayed out