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Topic: F1 - Australian Grand Prix  (Read 455 times)

Optional March 12, 2015, 05:25:13 PM

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1st practice starts in about 5 hours.

Although after 12 days of pre season testing Mercedes still look to hold a big advantage, the rest of the field could be quite shuffled and provide some good betting opportunities.

There is an oft repeated line amongst F1 fans, "it's only testing". ie: nothing can be relied upon as teams have different agendas and often hide key parts until the last moment. But here is what I think we could take from pre season testing.

Ferrari
have made a big leap in engine performance. Both the factory team and Sauber consistently ran top or among the best times on almost every day of testing. Although fans are wary of Ferrari doing 'glory runs' on low fuel in testing to grab the headlines, I think most agree that Ferrari have made a big step forward.

I think Sebastian Vettel  -200 for a Top 6 finish is about the right odds, not value or anything, but I am confident he will perform well this weekend and if he does a 6th would be the minimum result.

Less certain about Kimi Raikkonen  -140 for the top 6, based on last years horrible performance. But he looks and talks like all the issues he had have been fixed for this year. And unfortunately Kimi may be the one fighting with Vettel for that top 6 on Sunday.


Williams I think you can tell a lot about how good a car might be from Massa. The veteran is an emotional character who is a confidence driver. he wears his heart on his sleeve when unhappy about a car. Both he and Bottas have been talking up Williams as much improved and what they feel is the clear 2nd best car on the grid after the factory Mercs. I also think they are probably right.

Felipe Massa -150 for a top 6 seems like ridiculously good odds to me. How Ricciardo and Vettel can be -200 ahead of him is 'strange' and I think says more about people's perception of Massa as a bit unreliable and less talented than Bottas than the reality of how good the car is and how good Massa has shown himself to be in a good car he trusts.


Red Bull Really tough to be sure where they sit after testing. Thye suffered reliability issues and the Renault power plant still appears to be down on raw horsepower compared to the Merc and Ferrari. That said there have been several years Red Bull have looked in trouble or behind during pre season testing only to come out in Melbourne and be fine. Last year the prime example where they hardly got the car to run properly during testing and then somehow Ricciardo comes out and drives it home in 3rd place and soon after wins a race.

Ricciardo odds are all too low to bet right now and Kyvat is too much of an unknown in the car to risk money before practice.


Mercedes Rosberg was suffering from a neck injury and missed quite a bit of testing. Neck muscles are very important in F1 and if he has any sort of remaining issue or weakness of the neck it will affect his performance over a race distance.

Lewis Hamilton +100 to win race might be too low to bet right now but i doubt it gets better and may be worth using to start an open parlay for the Cup race?


Torro Rosso  *Alert* This car appears to have a good step forward for this year. Although saddled with the same possibly questionable engine as Red Bull and a 17yo and 20yo rookie driver pairing I suspect STR will be the 'dark horse' in the mid field this season. I expect them o pick up points just about every race if not all.

One or both drivers for a top 10 at +275 is great value I think. I just wish I had any clue which one might perform better out of the box. right now i suspect it might be the older Sainz. Probably have to wait until Friday night to see if there is any obvious faster man though. Although maybe both now is the way to go.

Max Verstappen      +275
Carlos Sainz Jr      +275


Sauber The car looked very good and reliable in testing. Unfortunately they have signed 3 differn pay drivers for the 2 seats and have been ruled against in court ordering them to race the left out driver, causing yet another problem. Although I think they have potential to do much better this year than last I suspect that wont be realized for a few races until they get their rookie pay drivers settled in and confident.  Danger for a top 10 spot though.


Lotus Showed flashes of brilliance during testing but tough to tell exactly where they sit. The swap to a Mercedes engine will definitely benefit them and they should be expected to be fighting for podiums some time this year.

Right now the only betting option worth considering might be fastest lap. If they show any speed in practice the current +7000 odds will be cut in half.

Romain Grosjean      +7000 Fastest Lap
Pastor Maldonado      +7000 Fastest Lap



McLaren The car is sorted worse than many of the cars were first race last year. If they make it to the end that will be the best they can expect I think. Fade all day as the name is currently seeing Button way over valued in all markets.


Force India Also behind the others, only managing to get their 2015 car on the track near the end of testing. Fade until we see how sorted they are and how good th new design is. They have been under financial strain and I suspect that will impact badly on the first version of their new car.


Manor GP probably will not qualify to race. If they do its just for practice as they will be lapped a few times.




Optional March 12, 2015, 05:38:44 PM (#1)

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In about 3 hours from now you will be able to watch the local broadcast with about 6 hours coverage of Friday practice and support events here:

http://motorsport.hopto.org/   (Live TV 1 channel)


Or you can open up this URL directly in your VLC player software:  http://motorsport.hopto.org:8080/


(VLC player is a popular video player software which can be safely downloaded form here if needed: http://www.videolan.org/vlc/index.html )

Optional March 12, 2015, 05:40:04 PM (#2)

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First practice starts at 9.30am ET

Optional March 13, 2015, 12:37:58 AM (#3)

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Practice 1 went about to script.

The Torro Rosso's looked great as predicted and that +275 for top 10 looking great for both Sainz and Verstappen


 1 Rosberg 1:29.557
 2 Hamilton 1:29.586
 3 Bottas 1:30.748
 4 Sainz 1:31.014
 5 Vettel 1:31.029
 6 Verstappen 1:31.067
 7 Massa 1:31.188
 8 Raikkonen 1:31.310
 9 Maldonado 1:31.451
 10 Ricciardo 1:31.570
 11 Kvyat 1:32.073
 12 Perez 1:32.247
 13 Hulkenberg 1:32.261
 14 Button  1:34.542
 15 K.MAGNUSSEN 1:34.785
 16 Grosjean 2:17.782
 17 Ericsson
 18 Nasr
 19 Stevens
 20 Merhi

Vegas March 13, 2015, 09:48:09 AM (#4)

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 :cheersGood luck on your F1 bets this weekend

Reigle9 March 13, 2015, 09:53:15 AM (#5)

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Practice 1 went about to script.

The Torro Rosso's looked great as predicted and that +275 for top 10 looking great for both Sainz and Verstappen


 1 Rosberg 1:29.557
 2 Hamilton 1:29.586
 3 Bottas 1:30.748
 4 Sainz 1:31.014
 5 Vettel 1:31.029
 6 Verstappen 1:31.067
 7 Massa 1:31.188
 8 Raikkonen 1:31.310
 9 Maldonado 1:31.451
 10 Ricciardo 1:31.570
 11 Kvyat 1:32.073
 12 Perez 1:32.247
 13 Hulkenberg 1:32.261
 14 Button  1:34.542
 15 K.MAGNUSSEN 1:34.785
 16 Grosjean 2:17.782
 17 Ericsson
 18 Nasr
 19 Stevens
 20 Merhi
:cheers

vegas native March 13, 2015, 12:23:42 PM (#6)

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You are the man Optional. I don't know how you know all this but you were dead on at the start of last season and the entire season. Thanks again for doing the F1 races on here.

Optional March 13, 2015, 04:10:27 PM (#7)

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I'm broke at 5Dimes but I really hope everyone who reads this jumps on the top 10s for the STR guys.

They at +110 and +125 for top 10s at Bet365 by way of comparison.

Best I can get is around +150 on them at books I have $$ in.



Practice 2 times below.

Massa and Ricciardo did not run due to engine problems requiring a complete change over. That will set both of them back as P2 is the most important session of the weekend pre-race. But won't be a killer. I still like Massa for a top 6 at -150 (think that should be more like -250 personally)


PName
 
TeamBest TimeLaps
1Nico RosbergMercedes1:27.69729
2Lewis HamiltonMercedes1:27.79725
3Sebastian VettelFerrari1:28.41233
4Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1:28.84233
5Valtteri BottasWilliams1:29.26532
6Daniil KvyatRed Bull1:30.01627
7Carlos Sainz JrToro Rosso1:30.07141
8Pastor MaldonadoLotus1:30.10411
9Romain GrosjeanLotus1:30.20537
10Nico HulkenbergForce India1:30.47330
11Felipe NasrSauber1:30.75533
12Sergio PerezForce India1:30.98032
13Jenson ButtonMcLaren1:31.38721
14Max VerstappenToro Rosso1:31.3956
15Marcus EricssonSauber1:32.30314
16Kevin MagnussenMcLaren1:33.2894

Ferrari showed impressive long run pace and I suspect this P2 leaderboard will closely resemble the race finishing order. When on the long runs together Vettel appeared to have a few tenths of a second on Raikonen whenever I looked at their times. (could have been fuel but doubtful f they were both doing race sim runs)

I think this is what we will see

For Win
Hamilton
Rosberg

For Podium
Vettel
Bottas

Top 6
Massa
Raikonen

Top 10
Ricciardo
Kyvat
Sainz
Verstappen

Dangers To Top 10
Maldonado
Grosjean
Nasr
Ericsson

Fades
Force India
McLaren

Optional March 13, 2015, 04:54:08 PM (#8)

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Yis suggests that if +275 for top 10 is good odds, then +2750 for top 6 must be a nice overlay too.

5mike5 March 13, 2015, 06:51:00 PM (#9)

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Good stuff as usual on the F1 stuff optional

Thanks

yisman March 14, 2015, 12:15:54 AM (#10)

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off the board now

I have enough to send you some funds?

Optional March 14, 2015, 02:27:38 AM (#11)

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off the board now

I have enough to send you some funds?

Thanks Yis, Thats nice of you. I'll let you know.


Your top 6 bets are looking better than I expected after first quali session.  4th and 7th so far.

SubjectMatterExpert March 14, 2015, 12:01:12 PM (#12)

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 We have a winner picked yet?

Optional March 14, 2015, 03:39:45 PM (#13)

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*Alert*  Bottas developed back pain during quali yesterday. It's bad enough that he had scans last night and needs to be cleared by an FIA doctor before beign allowed to race.

Even if he does race I suggest a fade considering how badly it affected his qualification performance.


We have a winner picked yet?

I don't recall making many F1 win bets since the Merc dominance started last year.

I'd pretty much take Hamilton to beat Rosberg every time though.


Have a family event on today so will be off as soon as Xfinity race is over. Will be back home about Midnight ET to place my final bets.

Will try to do the head to heads before I leave if possible.



Quali Results


PNameTeamQ1Q2Q3Laps
1Lewis HamiltonMercedes1:28.5861:26.8941:26.32716
2Nico RosbergMercedes1:28.9061:27.0971:26.92114
3Felipe MassaWilliams1:29.2461:27.8951:27.71821
4Sebastian VettelFerrari1:29.3071:27.7421:27.75712
5Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1:29.7541:27.8071:27.79017
6Valtteri BottasWilliams1:29.6411:27.7961:28.08716
7Daniel RicciardoRed Bull1:29.7881:28.6791:28.32922
8Carlos SainzToro Rosso1:29.5971:28.6011:28.51022
9Romain GrosjeanLotus1:29.5371:28.5891:28.56020
10Pastor MaldonadoLotus1:29.8471:28.7261:29.48020
11Felipe NasrSauber1:30.4301:28.800 17
12Max VerstappenToro Rosso1:29.2481:28.868 15
13Daniil KvyatRed Bull1:30.4021:29.070 9
14Nico HulkenbergForce India1:29.6511:29.208 14
15Sergio PerezForce India1:29.9901:29.209 13
16Marcus EricssonSauber1:31.376 10
17Jenson ButtonMcLaren1:31.422 7
18Kevin MagnussenMcLaren1:32.037 8

yisman March 14, 2015, 06:05:23 PM (#14)

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wish I had bet more on the stuff but I was tight with all the college player props I was betting

I bet earlier Friday with the intent of coming back Friday night after an NBA game when I'd have more money. I checked back and no odds were there so I couldn't rebet.
3/13/15 11:00pm Motor Racing Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Max Verstappen +2750
3/13/15 11:00pm Motor Racing Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish - Carlos Sainz Jr +2750
3/13/15 11:00pm Motor Racing Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish - Max Verstappen +275
3/13/15 11:00pm Motor Racing Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix - Top 10 Finish - Carlos Sainz Jr +275

new odds:

Verstappen top 6 +800, top 10 +110
Sainz top 6 +300, top 10 -160

value gone


good tip opti