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Topic: ATLANTA--5mike5  (Read 1163 times)

5mike5 February 23, 2015, 10:22:01 AM

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Alright fellas the REAL season and hard work begins his weekend at AMS and we will have a TRIPLE-HEADER weekend of CUP, Xfknity, and even the trucks will all be racing fri-sunday.  What a way to start the oval track racing season!!!!!

The past few races for cup, the notebook reading, the note taking, and the hours overall of handicapping everyday starts now and I LOVE IT!!!!   ( for now anyways in sept will be a grind) lol

As any real NASCAR handicapper knows (not casual bettor) the 1st 4 races of every season are BY fAR the toughest to cap of the entire year because every new season brings new and surprising cars and teams that rise and fall from the season before.  Even though I think Penske will have an another amaIng season as had nothing to do with the 500 yesterday. 

We have sol much to learn over the next month make sure U handicap according.   I'll be using all my usual tactics and maybe a few more parlays than usual and just making sure my ROI right where I need each.  Winning HUGE.  Lol.  It's gonna be a rough month but we put all our great skills together we have a better chance than most anybody else as we have the best in the business by far here.

Interested to see the opening odds.  Maybe take a few but I'm using parlays for sure b4 and on CUP race by itself im sure so no sure yet my early strategy.   But Penske I will have to take a hard look at early but I'm sure odds will be low there could be parlay or opennparlay closing potential.  Any early singles like every year if odds get better I'll just add on more $$ to them.  Best thing is getting best # early on anybody b4 the sessions start this week as any week.  But after this month I could almost care less about practices as everybody that follows me knows.  But the 1st month even I pay attention ronwhonlooks good in the practices but still won't wagwr on sriver ONLY because of them.

Let's all get to work.  And as always everybody's opinions and views and picks on the race are welcome.  We are much stronger as a group that's why we have CRUSHED the books year in and year out.  We will make a seperate thread for the other series in a few days or when odds post. 

GOODLUCK fellas it's finally here and time to start making all that $$$ we do EVERY single year!!!!!


 :moneypile:$rain.   :shift:dj



5mike5 February 23, 2015, 10:48:51 AM (#1)

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There is also an OPEN TEST on Thursday from ATLANTA for the CUP teams to get a head start for the weekend.

Mario4 February 23, 2015, 07:17:19 PM (#2)

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As most of you know from previous posts. I signed up for racingracingcheatsheet.com. Some of the people on here had good and bad things to say about it. The real reason I signed up was for the advanced analytic section of the website. I decided to reach out to the website and ask for the contact information for the guy who did the ACCUPREDICT (advance analytic).

Over the last week and half I've had a lot of conversations with him. I've asked him to devise a advance analytic system that takes his system and runs it against H2H matchups, taking it the vegas odds. Basically, an example would be Atlanta this week, where he believes Atlanta is the hardest track to predict other then RP races and road coarse races and Bristol.

The excel spreadsheet he is creating for me gives me a Driver rating for each racer based on that particular track/race. I plug the number into the spreadsheet and it spits out a probability of winning the H2H matchup along with what a breakeven odds would be.

So if we have Harvick vs. Kennseth. His rating has Harvick expected finish to be 8 and Kennseth at 14. I then put that into the system and it will spit out the probability, lets say 62.5% that Harvick beats Kennseth. Also, it will show what the H2H matchup odds would be for a breakeven point if we ran the race 100 times. Lets say Harvick -140 Kennseth is breakeven.

Now i know when I look at the Vegas odds that if Vegas has Harvick at -120 over Kennseth that I have value and should bet Harvick, and vise versa.

Also, he is making me a system for ODDS TO WIN and PROBABILITY TO FINISH IN TOP 10.

I would be more that happy to share his system with everyone. He just sent me a 4 page PDF breaking down each track and which tracks are the easiest-hardest to predict. (Kentucky=easiest). If anyone wants it, just reply with your email address and ill send it to you. Just trying to contribute to the site and share information.

vegas native February 23, 2015, 09:05:58 PM (#3)

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Sounds good Mario. I just sent you an email with my email address. Thanks brother

5mike5 February 23, 2015, 10:28:48 PM (#4)

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I appreciate anybody that puts in the hard work ir takes to do these things. I'm not a huge h2h player but still have them on my roster so I wouldnt mind having a look myself Mario.

Either way thanks for sharing all this information win the readers here at the website. 

We appreciate yA buddy.   I'll take an email of it when U get time

Thank you

 :cheers

nascarwagers February 24, 2015, 02:12:18 AM (#5)

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As most of you know from previous posts. I signed up for racingracingcheatsheet.com. Some of the people on here had good and bad things to say about it. The real reason I signed up was for the advanced analytic section of the website. I decided to reach out to the website and ask for the contact information for the guy who did the ACCUPREDICT (advance analytic).

Over the last week and half I've had a lot of conversations with him. I've asked him to devise a advance analytic system that takes his system and runs it against H2H matchups, taking it the vegas odds. Basically, an example would be Atlanta this week, where he believes Atlanta is the hardest track to predict other then RP races and road coarse races and Bristol.

The excel spreadsheet he is creating for me gives me a Driver rating for each racer based on that particular track/race. I plug the number into the spreadsheet and it spits out a probability of winning the H2H matchup along with what a breakeven odds would be.

So if we have Harvick vs. Kennseth. His rating has Harvick expected finish to be 8 and Kennseth at 14. I then put that into the system and it will spit out the probability, lets say 62.5% that Harvick beats Kennseth. Also, it will show what the H2H matchup odds would be for a breakeven point if we ran the race 100 times. Lets say Harvick -140 Kennseth is breakeven.

Now i know when I look at the Vegas odds that if Vegas has Harvick at -120 over Kennseth that I have value and should bet Harvick, and vise versa.

Also, he is making me a system for ODDS TO WIN and PROBABILITY TO FINISH IN TOP 10.

I would be more that happy to share his system with everyone. He just sent me a 4 page PDF breaking down each track and which tracks are the easiest-hardest to predict. (Kentucky=easiest). If anyone wants it, just reply with your email address and ill send it to you. Just trying to contribute to the site and share information.

Mario,

Is that something you can post in the forums? Would love for you to share on the forums, it should let you attach the file on your post. I think everyone would like to see it. Like I always say, the more information the better. That is what these forums are about.

nascarwagers February 24, 2015, 02:13:49 AM (#6)

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There is also an OPEN TEST on Thursday from ATLANTA for the CUP teams to get a head start for the weekend.

Wondering if the reduction in speeds will cause any significant difference in tire wear? Imagining probably not but just a curious thought  :?

5mike5 February 24, 2015, 04:41:30 AM (#7)

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There is also an OPEN TEST on Thursday from ATLANTA for the CUP teams to get a head start for the weekend.

Wondering if the reduction in speeds will cause any significant difference in tire wear? Imagining probably not but just a curious thought  :?

We are gonna have to learn a lot over the 1st month and on the diff sized racetracks imo. 

And ATLANTA is always 1 of the roughest races to handicap every year anyways imo

Optional February 24, 2015, 07:50:20 AM (#8)

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As most of you know from previous posts. I signed up for racingracingcheatsheet.com. Some of the people on here had good and bad things to say about it. The real reason I signed up was for the advanced analytic section of the website. I decided to reach out to the website and ask for the contact information for the guy who did the ACCUPREDICT (advance analytic).

Over the last week and half I've had a lot of conversations with him. I've asked him to devise a advance analytic system that takes his system and runs it against H2H matchups, taking it the vegas odds. Basically, an example would be Atlanta this week, where he believes Atlanta is the hardest track to predict other then RP races and road coarse races and Bristol.

The excel spreadsheet he is creating for me gives me a Driver rating for each racer based on that particular track/race. I plug the number into the spreadsheet and it spits out a probability of winning the H2H matchup along with what a breakeven odds would be.

So if we have Harvick vs. Kennseth. His rating has Harvick expected finish to be 8 and Kennseth at 14. I then put that into the system and it will spit out the probability, lets say 62.5% that Harvick beats Kennseth. Also, it will show what the H2H matchup odds would be for a breakeven point if we ran the race 100 times. Lets say Harvick -140 Kennseth is breakeven.

Now i know when I look at the Vegas odds that if Vegas has Harvick at -120 over Kennseth that I have value and should bet Harvick, and vise versa.

Also, he is making me a system for ODDS TO WIN and PROBABILITY TO FINISH IN TOP 10.

I would be more that happy to share his system with everyone. He just sent me a 4 page PDF breaking down each track and which tracks are the easiest-hardest to predict. (Kentucky=easiest). If anyone wants it, just reply with your email address and ill send it to you. Just trying to contribute to the site and share information.

Sounds good! I tried to this myself a few years back, work out my own odds for H2Hs to find value. Was semi succesful but required a lot of weekly work gathering and inputting up to date stats. be interested to see yours.

Mario4 February 24, 2015, 04:13:57 PM (#9)

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I tried to upload the PDF file but it says it was too big. I will continue to email everyone that wants it. Just email me at lilmar04@gmail.com

nascarwagers February 24, 2015, 04:17:38 PM (#10)

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I tried to upload the PDF file but it says it was too big. I will continue to email everyone that wants it. Just email me at lilmar04@gmail.com

Include me Mario admin@nascarwagers.com

dapperandy February 24, 2015, 04:19:36 PM (#11)

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Odds up at 5dimes. Thanks for that info Mario.

Optional February 24, 2015, 05:02:31 PM (#12)

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Sprint Cup   Folds Of Honor QuikTrip 500

Kevin Harvick     +700
Jeff Gordon     +700
Jimmie Johnson     +725
Brad Keselowski     +825
Joey Logano     +825
Matt Kenseth     +825
Carl Edwards     +1100
Denny Hamlin     +1100
Kasey Kahne     +1300
Dale Earnhardt Jr     +1300
Kyle Larson     +1600
Tony Stewart     +3000
Clint Bowyer     +3300
Jamie McMurray     +3300
Ryan Newman     +3300
Greg Biffle     +4400
Martin Truex Jr     +4400
Erik Jones     +5500
Austin Dillon     +7500
Paul Menard     +8000
AJ Allmendinger     +10000
Aric Almirola     +10000
Regan Smith     +10000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr     +10000
Sam Hornish Jr     +10000
Trevor Bayne     +10000
Danica Patrick     +20000
Casey Mears     +50000
Justin Allgaier     +50000

5mike5 February 24, 2015, 05:03:07 PM (#13)

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DAVID RAGAN appears to be the driver to replace KYLE BUSCH until he returns.   

Also R.Smirh back in the #41 but just for this week so far

5mike5 February 24, 2015, 05:05:35 PM (#14)

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David ragan appears the clear cut favorite to replace KYLE BUSCH until he returns.   

Also R.Smirh back in the #41 but just for this week so far

expected to be for he next 9-10 races is what they are expecting UNtil KYLE Busch returns.  Pretty quick from what I was thinking but guess it's about right but they really don't know yet.  Too early to know