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Keselowski wins Clash. Speedweeks continues at Daytona

Topic: Week by week odds of Sprint Cup race winner  (Read 197 times)

yisman September 16, 2014, 02:28:23 PM

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I have all weeks but one. Going by closing odds at 5 Dimes.

Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1000

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Phoenix
Phoenix International Raceway    Kevin Harvick +450

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas
Las Vegas Motor Speedway    Brad Keselowski +700

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway    Carl Edwards +2600

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at California
Auto Club Speedway    Kyle Busch +900

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville
Martinsville Speedway    Kurt Busch +4000

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas
Texas Motor Speedway    Joey Logano +1650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington
Darlington Raceway    Kevin Harvick +675

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Richmond
Richmond International Raceway    Joey Logano +950

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega
Talladega Superspeedway    Denny Hamlin +1125

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas City
Kansas Speedway    Jeff Gordon +1000

NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race
Charlotte Motor Speedway    Jamie McMurray +4500

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte
Charlotte Motor Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +390

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Dover
Dover International Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +270

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono
Pocono Raceway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1600

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +550

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Sonoma
Sonoma    Carl Edwards +1650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kentucky
Kentucky Speedway    Brad Keselowski +360

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona
Daytona International Speedway    Aric Almirola +8500

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway    Brad Keselowski ???

The Brickyard 400
Indianapolis Motor Speedway    Jeff Gordon +650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono
Pocono Raceway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1350

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen
Watkins Glen International    AJ Allmendinger +1375

Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway    Jeff Gordon +385

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway    Joey Logano +1200

Oral USA 500 at Atlanta
Atlanta Motor Speedway    Kasey Kahne +2500

 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Richmond
Richmond International Raceway    Brad Keselowski +550

MyTellingAFibStory.com 400 at Chicago
Chicagoland Speedway    Brad Keselowski +510


In response to:

Think I'm gonna alter my betting strategy a bit. Looking like lines are going to be tighter on the 4 or 5 obvious favs every week.

Think the days of the 35-1 shots winning may be over with except for maybe Dega.

Mostly single digit winners I believe.


yisman September 16, 2014, 02:30:08 PM (#1)

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Mostly short odds guys winning races (because they juice the lines like crazy and often have 3-4 guys at short odds each week), but we've had five winners this year of odds with +2500 or longer.

Optional September 17, 2014, 12:37:37 AM (#2)

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5 long shots in 27 races.  Sounds about right really.

I'm surprised how many are +700 or less at first glance. 12.

Although now I type that I guess that leaves another 10 mid range odds winners. so it is about what i would expect.

yisman September 19, 2014, 11:48:22 AM (#3)

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short odds have won more than you'd expect I think but there tend to be 2 or 3 "short odds" guys each week due to the overround, so...

yisman November 17, 2014, 04:29:43 PM (#4)

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I have all weeks but one. Going by closing odds at 5 Dimes.

Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1000

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Phoenix
Phoenix International Raceway    Kevin Harvick +450

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Las Vegas
Las Vegas Motor Speedway    Brad Keselowski +700

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway    Carl Edwards +2600

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at California
Auto Club Speedway    Kyle Busch +900

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville
Martinsville Speedway    Kurt Busch +4000

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas
Texas Motor Speedway    Joey Logano +1650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington
Darlington Raceway    Kevin Harvick +675

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Richmond
Richmond International Raceway    Joey Logano +950

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega
Talladega Superspeedway    Denny Hamlin +1125

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas City
Kansas Speedway    Jeff Gordon +1000

NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race
Charlotte Motor Speedway    Jamie McMurray +4500

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Charlotte
Charlotte Motor Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +390

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Dover
Dover International Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +270

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono
Pocono Raceway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1600

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +550

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Sonoma
Sonoma    Carl Edwards +1650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kentucky
Kentucky Speedway    Brad Keselowski +360

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona
Daytona International Speedway    Aric Almirola +8500

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway    Brad Keselowski ???

The Brickyard 400
Indianapolis Motor Speedway    Jeff Gordon +650

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Pocono
Pocono Raceway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1350

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen
Watkins Glen International    AJ Allmendinger +1375

Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway    Jeff Gordon +385

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway    Joey Logano +1200

Oral USA 500 at Atlanta
Atlanta Motor Speedway    Kasey Kahne +2500

 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Richmond
Richmond International Raceway    Brad Keselowski +550

MyTellingAFibStory.com 400 at Chicago
Chicagoland Speedway    Brad Keselowski +510




Sun, Sep 21    Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway    Joey Logano +975 (4th fave)

Sun, Sep 28    NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Dover pres. by Pennzoil
Dover International Speedway    Jeff Gordon +900 (4th fave?)

Sun, Oct 5    NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas pres. by Dodge
Kansas Speedway    Joey Logano +850 (3rd fave)

Sat, Oct 11    Bank of America 500 at Charlotte
Charlotte Motor Speedway    Kevin Harvick +500 (fave)

Sun, Oct 19    Geico 500 at Talladega
Talladega Superspeedway    Brad Keselowski +1200 (4th fave)

Sun, Oct 26    NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville pres. by AutoZone
Martinsville Speedway    Dale Earnhardt Jr. +2000 (9th fave)

Sun, Nov 2    NSCS at Texas pres. by Federated Auto Parts
Texas Motor Speedway    Jimmie Johnson +385 (fave)

Sun, Nov 9    Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500
Phoenix International Raceway    Kevin Harvick +245 (fave)

Sun, Nov 16    Ford EcoBoost 400 at Miami
Homestead-Miami Speedway    Kevin Harvick +550 (2nd fave)



very chalky season

top favorite often won, and if not it was usually the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th favorite.

Only five winners all year of +2500 or longer. In 36 races.

5mike5 November 17, 2014, 05:10:43 PM (#5)

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Also it depends GREATLY when u bet the winners.  Those odds aren't near what they were sometimes which is a big factor.

Very easy season too. I hit all but 1 of the longshots I think, which amirola was the one I missed on for sure

Parlaying top favs was the key toe having my best season ever. Others should really consider this tactic I started late in 2013.  Having last leg open parlays COMPLETED by raceday except the last-leg is a HUGE $$$ advantage.  Makes favs longer shots at a min. Even a 2-slo parlay makes the favs double digits odds wise!!!  I mean that is absoluey HUGE and it's not that hard either as long as u don't lose the 1st pick much.  U have to be mindful of that as well

5mike5 November 17, 2014, 05:19:40 PM (#6)

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The biggest mistake any gambler could have made this season was betting HARVICK, kennseth, JJ, and Kyle Busch too much and not knowing when to lay off. For me I would say it was LARSON  was driver I lost the most $$ on, but good thing about him he was not ever close to being  a favorite odds wise

I'm in the process of breaking down my entire season like I do every year by driver, racetrack, ect ect. I always like to know those personal stats to see how I can get better and the mistakes I made this year.  It really does help imo

Especially when u co late to the practices.  Another huge mistake imo betting based off those. Always like to make sure that atill holds true which it bery easily did this year more than I've ever seen.  Talking cup series

And next year will be totally different im sure.

5mike5 November 17, 2014, 05:33:21 PM (#7)

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And thanks to a lot of the posters here, we CRUSHED the truck and nationwide series on an almost weekly basis. Most success I've ever seen in the 2 lower series as well which always helps the bottom line weekly and overall for the season.

I know tailing guys here on trucks like jay had a crazy great run and several on nationwide when I didn't know who to bet

yisman November 17, 2014, 06:46:09 PM (#8)

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Also it depends GREATLY when u bet the winners.  Those odds aren't near what they were sometimes which is a big factor.


yes, since the NASCAR market is pretty bogus*, you can have guys who were +2000 and wind up +500 due to a few max bets.

It's hard to represent it accurately because of this. Maybe opening odds would be a better way of looking at it, but I've never seen opening odds. By the time I get to it I'm sure there have always been bets changing the odds.

So what I can do is post closing odds, since I know when I can get closing odds. Openers are unpredictable because 5 Dimes is ridiculous and screws with everyone by posting them at different times each week.

*Pretty similar to horse racing, actually. No qualifying and practice with horses, but the same idea. There's a "morning line" and by the time betting closes, the odds are radically different based on the parimutuel pool.

5mike5 November 17, 2014, 08:11:48 PM (#9)

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Yeah ur totally right about those points Yisman.  Overreactions to sessions drop odds way more than they should be compared to openers. Especially getting any real read on what the odds are they change so much.  And the other things U mentioned

Optional November 25, 2014, 05:31:39 AM (#10)

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Return over season if betting 1 unit on the driver at each of the 36 points races.  (so 36 units = break even)

Junior 62.5 units
Logano 61.2 units
Keselowski 44.6 units
Gordon 33.3 units
Harvick 29.2 units
Jimmie 19.9 units