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Topic: LOUDON--5mike5  (Read 1413 times)

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 09:25:23 AM

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Alright boys were are off to LOUDON,NH this week for the 2ND chase race of the playoffs.  We have been Killing the books so let's keep it up this weekend again!!!!

  (Even though I didn't know I won on last Sunday's cup race til late last night. LOL)

Odds came out very late last night/early this morning which is early but u always have to be ready with those bastards :).  As always everybody's opinions and plays are always welcomed in the thread. It's why we have all been making $ hand over fist all summer, and really since the site has opned....so keep those opinion and picks coming fellas...it does nothing but help everybody even if they dont agree its a different prespective

GOODLUCK THIS WEEK BOYS!!!

 :moneypile:shift.   :cheers


5mike5 September 16, 2014, 11:11:16 AM (#1)

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I also started open parlay (2-slot) to go with a race winner on 24>4 in QUALIFYING.  I went a super surprising 3-0 on Qualifying plays last week so maybe I'm on to something so im gonn play just 1 this week and hope it wins to parlay a race winner with it....

GORDON beats HARVICK almost every single race here last 3-4 years in qualifying and the race.  But harvick is a different monster I know but I thought it was worth a shot at (-115)

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 11:12:16 AM (#2)

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Also taking a few early and when I'm done I'll post my early plays for this week that I have picked but might take 1 more

KYLE LARSON  as a big longshot  as 1.  He had a GREAT run here in he spring after qualifying YERRIBLE and getting to a 3rd place finish.  I think he's the best longer shot this week at almost 30/1

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 11:34:01 AM (#3)

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Probably something I haven't done in months is I HAD to take the fav and most recent winner and most recent winner @ LOUDON Bad Brad Keslowski.  He's usually just super here. ALMOST AN AUTOMATIC to put himself in the lineup late in the race to have a chance to win.  He always finishes top 10 almost every race the last few years.   He's just on too big of a roll with momentum, past track history, pretty much just can't pass him up even at the favorite odds wise and took him single.  So gonna bet betting him. Multiple times of course so maybe thei week or weekend his odds get better but will never be 6-1 so I gotta jump on him now in case +475 were his best odds of the week. Any other fav I would like I will parlay with a prop or h2h as strategy has saved and won me a lot more $ than its lost me   Especially on single digit favs.

But also keep in mind we have has a lot of different winners here the last 4-5 years...he really  dominated tat race  leading 138 of the 305 laps cause it went to GWC.

Plus my notebook said in caps take #2 here for the best 3-4 races no matter what. LOL.  And I took my notes from the spring race (which he WON) and I saw why.  He even overcame adversity to win even though he lead 138 laps in doing so....

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 11:44:08 AM (#4)

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KESLOWSKI has finished in the TOP 6 in 5 of his last 6 races here @ LOUDON with a worst finish of 11Th

WOW

And with a win last week and already locked in the next round this team can just be even more aversive and go for the WIN only.  They have no other goal and for them that's always the case.  He wants to win no matter what no matter the circumstances almost like no other driver

THAT SPEAKS FOR ITSELF.  This is I very tough close bump and bang racetrack.  That's what I meant in the last post by he is always in position to win this race late.  Which is all u can ask out of any bet u place. He knows how to pass cars here like nobody else I saw and I watched the last several races from here last night

BRAD KESLOWSKI HAS ALSO LEAD LAPS In the last 7 races in a row, the current record on that category

And the Penske qualifying also has been outstanding as we all know

for once leaving the opening fav this week just is a mistake to leave off win or lose.  I personally would be scared to death not to have him this weekend when the flag drops. 

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 12:46:00 PM (#5)

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I also started comparing Drivers that are really good at Bristol and they really are almost the EXACT same drivers that are usually very very good @ Loudon.  Call it strange I know the tracks aren't a lot alike but do have similarities I guess.  Just something I've noticed while I've been researching the race his morning and Yesterday. Just something that caught my eye

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 12:51:10 PM (#6)

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And also keep in mind KYLE Busch has finished in 2nd ace 3 races in a row @ LOUDON. 

Impressive

On top of that he's hasn't qualified outside the top 11 in forever here.  But in all fairness even though he has finished runner-up the last 3 races @ LOUDON the races b4 that he really struggles but has seemed to have really found something here latley.

And he has won here but it was way back in the 2nd year of his career

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 01:03:21 PM (#7)

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JGR overall has been really really good here.  Besides kyles 3 last races here being 2nd omaves, hanlin and kennseth have so both WIN races here.  Just something else to keep in mind.  Not sure any team overall has been better.   Actually I know they haven't.

I actually have came really close to betting MATT KENNSETH (+1325) here at his early odds.  Has so e value imo and if they get worse gotta bet him again no matter what anyways.  Last 2 races he has a WIN and was 4th. I won't be surprised if he's my last early luck for the CUP race. 

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 01:05:19 PM (#8)

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Sorry abou all the posts in a row after I posted  up the thread this morning, but I was just tossing out a few of my early plays and some notes on some other drivers and teams I'm cherry picking out of my notebooks for the drivers here and my Loudon racetrack notebook.

nascarwagers September 16, 2014, 02:40:55 PM (#9)

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Good stuff Mike,

I tailed with Larson. I like Brad too, but going to parlay him most likely. All the JGR drivers like you said could be a force this week. Rowdy 3 straight runner-up finishes, I think we have all been waiting for Hamlin to return to his self at Loudon and Kenseth has proven he can win here as well. This is going to be a fun week

nascarwagers September 16, 2014, 02:46:24 PM (#10)

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Rowdy -125 over Johnson in Qualifying

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 03:02:49 PM (#11)

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Rowdy -125 over Johnson in Qualifying

I changed my mind on leaving other slot open on 2 teamer it started with 24>4 in qualifying.  I'm finishing it t with ur qualifying play. 1 pick from me and 1 from the master....lets see hoe it goes.....i think qualfying is friday i hope or early sat


QUALIFYING PARLAY:
JEFF GORDON Over KEVIN HARVICK (-115)
KYLE BUSCH  Over JIMMIE JOHNSON (-125)
(+237)


be nice way to getting a little cash flowing b4 any races start again like last weekend started out with qualifying...

maybe same thing will happen and win everyday they are on the track friday, sat, and sunday again...was a GREAT triple-header weekend that's for sure...but if it loses its not like im in any big hole or anything just a few $100 bucks....just had 1 max on it and not adding anyting else to it no matter what happens

for some1 who never has never liked or saw much of a value betting qualdifying, i have to admit last weeknd was exciting as hell for me actually  having a few bets on it with the new format, and wet 3-0....was the 1st time ll season i tried it and did have fun....would still never bet pretty BIG amonts (for qualifying nd h2hs anyways)  amount like i tried a few times last year losing almost $700 on my last race i tried after winning $500 week b4 on 1 bet,  which was a fav that i 2x maxed (...still scared me off them) even though didnt lose but fe $100 bucks overall

but that was fun last week....feel like we have another great shot this weekend too, at least single....parlaying alays risky but lik this 1 alot so im taking the chance for a much bigger payout (as usual im greedy)  :lol

 :show$

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 03:28:46 PM (#12)

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Rowdy -125 over Johnson in Qualifying

I changed my mind on leaving other slot open on 2 teamer it started with 24>4 in qualifying.  I'm finishing it t with ur qualifying play. 1 pick from me and 1 from the master....lets see hoe it goes.....i think qualfying is friday i hope or early sat


QUALIFYING PARLAY:
JEFF GORDON Over KEVIN HARVICK (-115)
KYLE BUSCH  Over JIMMIE JOHNSON (-125)
(+237)


be nice way to getting a little cash flowing b4 any races start again like last weekend started out with qualifying...

maybe same thing will happen and win everyday they are on the track friday, sat, and sunday again...was a GREAT triple-header weekend that's for sure...but if it loses its not like im in any big hole or anything just a few $100 bucks....just had 1 max on it and not adding anyting else to it no matter what happens

for some1 who never has never liked or saw much of a value betting qualdifying, i have to admit last weeknd was exciting as hell for me actually  having a few bets on it with the new format, and wet 3-0....was the 1st time ll season i tried it and did have fun....would still never bet pretty BIG amonts (for qualifying nd h2hs anyways)  amount like i tried a few times last year losing almost $700 on my last race i tried after winning $500 week b4 on 1 bet,  which was a fav that i 2x maxed (...still scared me off them) even though didnt lose but fe $100 bucks overall

but that was fun last week....feel like we have another great shot this weekend too, at least single....parlaying alays risky but lik this 1 alot so im taking the chance for a much bigger payout (as usual im greedy)  :lol

 :show$

just to prove my decison to play this particular qualifying matchup in GORDON over HARVICK,  these atats telll u everything u need to know....its a flat out  out DOMINATE ass kicking in qualifying by #24 over #4

GORDON HAS BEAT HARVICK in 9/10 RACES @ LOUDON in QUALIFYING with a 5.6 vs 13.2 avg starting position....

enough said for me...even if it happens to lose, thats a insane bet by the stats any1 should leave off imo.....makes no sense @ all @(-115) and that WILL be (-145) imo by qualifing if anybody else does research besides our group

just my opinion for what its worth (AND BY NO MEANS DONT TAIL JUST BECAUSE I BET IT AND it LOOKs REALLY GOOD 2 me, ur $ ur risk) but the stats are the stats its not like racing stats that can easily be screwed up with finshing positions...this is just qualifying

(no idea why all this post was large and in black, i just  meant for the stats to be, but i  did something wrong, sorry bout that fellas thats annoying)

5mike5 September 16, 2014, 03:53:36 PM (#13)

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and JAY's H2H QUALIFYING bet (KYLE over JIMMIE J)(-125) is also STRONG in the stats, epecially the last 5

KYLE has beat JIMMIE in 7 of the last 10 races OVERALL @ LOUDON in QUALIFYING......( 70 % success rate in last 10)

and 4 out of the last 5 races also for most recent starts (the only losing 1 was an 11th vs 12th place poisiotion kyle lost by only 1 position), (80% race in last 5)

so BOTH plays are backed up very STRONG statistics as u can poassibly get when it comes to qualifying, just trying to show why each of us picked the way we did

i think this bet also look great @ just (-125), for now at least

 :cheers

nascarwagers September 16, 2014, 04:35:55 PM (#14)

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Rowdy -125 over Johnson in Qualifying

I changed my mind on leaving other slot open on 2 teamer it started with 24>4 in qualifying.  I'm finishing it t with ur qualifying play. 1 pick from me and 1 from the master....lets see hoe it goes.....i think qualfying is friday i hope or early sat


QUALIFYING PARLAY:
JEFF GORDON Over KEVIN HARVICK (-115)
KYLE BUSCH  Over JIMMIE JOHNSON (-125)
(+237)


be nice way to getting a little cash flowing b4 any races start again like last weekend started out with qualifying...

maybe same thing will happen and win everyday they are on the track friday, sat, and sunday again...was a GREAT triple-header weekend that's for sure...but if it loses its not like im in any big hole or anything just a few $100 bucks....just had 1 max on it and not adding anyting else to it no matter what happens

for some1 who never has never liked or saw much of a value betting qualdifying, i have to admit last weeknd was exciting as hell for me actually  having a few bets on it with the new format, and wet 3-0....was the 1st time ll season i tried it and did have fun....would still never bet pretty BIG amonts (for qualifying nd h2hs anyways)  amount like i tried a few times last year losing almost $700 on my last race i tried after winning $500 week b4 on 1 bet,  which was a fav that i 2x maxed (...still scared me off them) even though didnt lose but fe $100 bucks overall

but that was fun last week....feel like we have another great shot this weekend too, at least single....parlaying alays risky but lik this 1 alot so im taking the chance for a much bigger payout (as usual im greedy)  :lol

 :show$

just to prove my decison to play this particular qualifying matchup in GORDON over HARVICK,  these atats telll u everything u need to know....its a flat out  out DOMINATE ass kicking in qualifying by #24 over #4

GORDON HAS BEAT HARVICK in 9/10 RACES @ LOUDON in QUALIFYING with a 5.6 vs 13.2 avg starting position....

enough said for me...even if it happens to lose, thats a insane bet by the stats any1 should leave off imo.....makes no sense @ all @(-115) and that WILL be (-145) imo by qualifing if anybody else does research besides our group

just my opinion for what its worth (AND BY NO MEANS DONT TAIL JUST BECAUSE I BET IT AND it LOOKs REALLY GOOD 2 me, ur $ ur risk) but the stats are the stats its not like racing stats that can easily be screwed up with finshing positions...this is just qualifying

(no idea why all this post was large and in black, i just  meant for the stats to be, but i  did something wrong, sorry bout that fellas thats annoying)

and JAY's H2H QUALIFYING bet (KYLE over JIMMIE J)(-125) is also STRONG in the stats, epecially the last 5

KYLE has beat JIMMIE in 7 of the last 10 races OVERALL @ LOUDON in QUALIFYING......( 70 % success rate in last 10)

and 4 out of the last 5 races also for most recent starts (the only losing 1 was an 11th vs 12th place poisiotion kyle lost by only 1 position), (80% race in last 5)

so BOTH plays are backed up very STRONG statistics as u can poassibly get when it comes to qualifying, just trying to show why each of us picked the way we did

i think this bet also look great @ just (-125), for now at least

 :cheers

The more and more I look at both bets, the more I like both. Let's get it  :cheers