Auto Club 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Racing
Date and Time: Sunday March 23nd, 2014. 3:18PM Eastern
Where: Auto Club Speedway Fontana, California.
TV: FOX
If the Nationwide race in Fontana was any indicator of things to come, we should be in store for an extremely exciting race tomorrow when the green flag drops for the Auto Club 400. Sprint Cup rookie Kyle Larson captured his first win in the Nationwide Series earlier today in the Treatmyclot.com 300 holding off Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick in an exciting 3 way battle in the closing laps. The fast speeds and close racing action displayed in the Nationwide Series race should also been seen again tomorrow when Sprint Cup Drivers get rolling at the 2 mile Auto Club Speedway.
Matt Kenseth will lead the field to the green flag tomorrow at approximately 3:18pm eastern. Kenseth has posted 3 wins in California which is the 2nd most of all active drivers behind Jimmie Johnson who has 5 victories. Both Johnson and Kenseth were solid in each of Saturday’s practices. However, there were a lot of cars that showed speed in practices. The racing in Fontana will be exciting because speeds are fast enough for drivers to pull up close to the back of cars in front with the help of the draft and drivers can use side draft off of cars beside them to make it difficult to complete passes. Therefore there will be a lot of passing and crossover moves throughout the afternoon.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, strategy may not play too big of a factor this weekend unless it is for fuel. Worn tires seem to have a decent drop-off meaning teams will likely not gamble on no tires or even two tires when pitting like we see at a lot of tracks. However, track position will be vital during the closing laps. Drivers appear to really benefit from clean air at Auto Club Speedway and can hold their ground even against fastest cars behind them when out front leading the race. Therefore both drivers and teams will have to be flawless on Sunday as any mistake could be too damaging to recover from in terms of track position.
Another interesting aspect to consider for picking a winner Sunday will be the rim riders. Auto Club Speedway is a very wide race track with multi groove racing similar to Michigan. However, the race track seems to favor drivers that can run the groove right up against the wall and get a good run off the turns. Drivers like Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr, and today’s Nationwide winner Kyle Larson are all notorious rim riders that excel at high groove race tracks. Do not be surprised if some of those names emerge to contend for the win in the Auto Club 400.
NASCARWAGERS Picks to win for the Auto Club 400:
Jimmie Johnson +675 (1.5 units): We jumped on Jimmie Johnson early this week and we like Six-Time to contend for the victory. Statistically this is Johnson’s best track with a 5.74 average finish and this is a perfect position for him to find his groove with Martinsville just around the corner. Johnson is also driving the same chassis that won last year at Pocono which is a similar racetrack.
Carl Edwards +1650 (1 unit) We normally do not pick a driver to win after coming off a win the previous win simply because NASCAR wins are tough to come by. Still, Edwards has been solid throughout his career in Sunny California and finished inside the top 5 in both of his last two starts at Fontana.
Kevin Harvick +800 (1 unit)Harvick was our other early week pick when decent odds at opening which has faded to +500 currently. Harvick is a driver that we mentioned typically does well at this style of racing and he has been strong everywhere thus far in 2014.
Parlay: Hendrick Motorsports (+250) wins Auto Club 400 + Tony Stewart (-115) over Kurt Busch
To win:+550
