2017 Overton’s 400 Race Predictions

2017 Overton’s 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 30th, 3:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series makes their 2nd stop at Pocono Raceway tomorrow afternoon with the running of the Overton’s 400. Last month, Ryan Blaney scored the first win of his young career by holding off veteran Kevin Harvick in the late stages of the Pocono 400. With the win, Blaney earned a spot into NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup. For drivers without wins this season, which include several big name drivers, there is a sense of urgency with just 6 races remaining before the Chase. If you also consider there have been 13 different winners already this season, then there is a possibility that some drivers will not have an opportunity to make it on points alone which puts a big emphasis on “winning.” We take this time to discuss the drivers that have the best chance to win tomorrow’s race as we present our 2017 Overton’s 400 race predictions!

If you did not already know, this will be the first race this season that will feature qualifying and the race in the same day for the Cup Series. NASCAR is exploring options to shorten the normal race weekend. Therefore both practices took place earlier today while qualifying and the Overton’s 400 will take place tomorrow afternoon. I personally do not believe that changes anything from a handicapping perspective. In fact, teams will be in their race setups when they go to qualify at 11:30am (EST). Therefore, the starting lineup should have some relative linear indication of how the cars will perform when the green flag waves. If anything, it just means that there will be less time for late adds to betting rosters and fantasy lineups following qualifying.

From an expectations standpoint, it still appears that the Toyotas have the slight advantage in terms of raw speed. Last week Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr were easily the class of the field at Indianapolis before they both wrecked each other. Indianapolis has some similarities to Pocono which can be used from a trending standpoint. Truex and the #78 team have continued to be the best team on a weekly basis this season but many could argue that Busch has been just as fast in more recent weeks. The difference is that Rowdy has still yet to win a race this year and has actually not won since last year’s Brickyard 400. Busch is the 1st car in points without a win and will likely make the playoffs on points given the fact we avoid several 1st time winners in the next few weeks.

However, the frustration from Busch and the entire #18 team has been very apparent in recent weeks as they have failed to seal the deal despite having the fastest car. Tomorrow Busch will be in the same situation as the overwhelming favorite to win the Overton’s 400. The #18 has been extremely fast throughout practices this weekend and even posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour along with the best 10 lap average. Therefore, he appears to once again have the car to beat and despite not winning a race this season; he is a huge favorite at mere 3 to 1 odds. So you have to ask yourself, is Busch due for a win or is his current odds too risky based on the fact that they have not been able to seal a victory yet? I tend to lean towards the too risky viewpoint despite the fact I do believe the #18 is the best car in the field.

If you are looking behind the #18 for the next best betting options, then I really think you have to consider the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing lineage. Most of the JGR cars have looked fast including Matt Kenseth who paced the first practice and Denny Hamlin who is a 4-time Pocono winner. Additionally Martin Truex continued to show speed and even Erik Jones looked pretty stout stemming from the Furniture Row Racing alliance. Obviously Truex will be pretty low in terms of odds but the others should have some decent return especially rookie Erik Jones. Don’t forget Jones posted his best finish of the season at Pocono last month when he brought home a 3rd place finish so he definitely has some dark horse potential!

If you dare to branch away from the Toyotas, I still think there is some advantageous odds on drivers that I expect to compete. Kevin Harvick has been great at Pocono including that runner-up finish to Blaney last month. Harvick actually has 3 runner-up finishes in his last 6 Pocono starts so he knows how to find the front of the field at the Tricky Triangle. Despite speed concerns in recent weeks from Team Penske, I don’t think anyone could rule out Brad Keselowski who piloted the #2 to a 5th place finish last month at Pocono under similar circumstances. Keselowski owns a ridiculous 8.0 average finishing position at Pocono in the last 10 races and has a 2011 Pocono win on his resume. Obviously the Penske cars have under-performed in recent weeks, but Keselowski’s odds and track history are advantageous to say the least.

If we mention other drivers that are capable of winning, I think everyone would unanimously agree that Kyle Larson is a weekly threat now in the Cup Series. I don’t necessarily like Larson’s chances for Sunday’s race but who could count him out? Two drivers that I do like include two of the youngsters in Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Blaney broke through with that big win in the Pocono 400 and has backed up his speed in practices so far this weekend. I jumped on Blaney at 22.5-1 odds on openers and I still like the value in the #21 as they seek a repeat result. Elliott is another driver that I think has a chance to accomplish what Blaney did last month. Elliott has run well at Pocono in his 3 career starts and looked pretty solid in final practice. If you can get a decent number on the #24, I think he may be worth a gamble.

Even though I consider the #24 a mid dark horse type pick, it is worth noting than none of the Hendrick Motorsports cars have looked very impressive this weekend. I took a half unit gamble on Dale Jr at 55-1 odds at openers because that team has proved in recent weeks that they will take gambles to win. Earnhardt has historically been very strong at Pocono and this track is designed perfectly for strategy calls from atop the pit box. Still, all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars including 7-time champion Jimmie Johnson have appeared pretty mediocre throughout practices. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how those guys run and if they perform better under true race conditions.

If you are looking for a few other potential dark horses to build some value in H2H matchups or fantasy rosters, I think Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman are great options. Busch always runs well at Pocono and has top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 8 starts at the Tricky Triangle. The elder Busch often gets overlooked at Pocono for whatever reason but typically produces quality finishes. Another guy that may be worth consideration is Ryan Newman. The entire RCR bunch has not qualified well in recent weeks and I am expecting that trend to continue tomorrow morning. However if that happens and Newman earns a bad starting spot, he may hold some added value considering Pocono is one of his better tracks. Newman has 9 top 5 finishes in 31 starts at Pocono and has finished inside the top 15 in 16 of his last 18 starts. If you also consider the fact that Newman has finished better than his starting position in 5 of the last 6 events, then you have the ingredients for a pretty solid fantasy play.

2017 Overton’s 400 Race Predictions

All *early forums plays listed below are courtesy of 5Dimes! Make sure you are getting the best odds by signing up here 5Dimes

Denny Hamlin +825 (1.25 units)
Kevin Harvick +850 (1.25 units)

Brad Keselowski (1 unit) *early forums play
Ryan Blaney +2250 (.5 unit) *early forums play
Dale Earnhardt Jr +5500 (.5 unit) *early forums play

H2H Matchups and Props

Ryan Blaney -145 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +100 over Chase Elliott (2 units) *early forums play
Ryan Blaney +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +850 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)