The west coast swing is officially behind us and this week the Sprint Cup Series visits historic Martinsville Speedway in the STP 500 for the first true short track race of the season. Over the past several weeks, we have learned a lot from teams and drivers in regards to where they currently stand against the competition. However most of that information was gathered through the 1.5-2 mile racetracks that the Sprint Cup Series so regularly visits. Do those same rules apply this week in Martinsville? Take a look as we provide our Martinsville handicapping notes and make a few early STP 500 predictions:
One thing that bettors and fantasy owners should remember is that short track racing has little bearing on horsepower and current team momentum that you may see at the larger tracks. Short track racing is more dependent upon driver ability and the handling setup within the racecar. For those reasons, you typically see a lot of the same names that stay towards the front of the pack each year in Martinsville. Guys like Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and recently Dale Earnhardt Jr always seem to run very well on the half mile paperclip. Therefore this week, do not get too caught up with early season form and current momentum. Focus more on recent track history, tire compound information, and the teams that can get a setup in the car that gives their driver plenty of rear grip for drive off when practices roll around. While we still have a full week to prepare for this Sunday’s 500 lap race, we take this time to provide a few STP 500 early predictions:
Kevin Harvick – The Streak Ends
Kevin Harvick’s 2nd place finish was largely overshadowed last week with all the drama that unfolded on the last lap of the Auto Club 400. However, the streak is now at 8 races that Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd which remains the longest such streak in NASCAR history. Up next on the schedule for the reigning Sprint Cup Champion, is a track that Harvick sports a rather lousy 16.44 average finishing position. Make no mistake about it, I am not saying Harvick is going to have a horrible day. However, he has not been very good at Martinsville throughout his career despite a victory in 2011. The raw speed of the #4 car will not be as big of a factor this week and I think this will be a rather pedestrian afternoon for “Happy:
Chase Elliot’s Sprint Cup Debut Will Be Forgettable
Chase Elliot will make his Sprint Cup debut this Sunday in the #25 Napa Auto Parts Chevrolet owned by Rick Hendrick. Last year Elliot became the youngest Xfinity Series Champion in NASCAR history and since that time the hype surrounding his future has become the biggest thing since “sliced bread”, aka Joey Logano. However, I do not expect Elliot to overly impress in his first outing. Martinsville is just a bad choice for a debut. The track favors experience perhaps more than any other track on circuit and it offers little opportunity to earn the respect from your peers when drivers will be fighting for every inch of real estate. Additionally, it is not even guaranteed Elliot will race on Sunday. The #25 car does not have any prior starts this season therefore Elliot must qualify on speed and hope Mother Nature does not wash out qualifying.
Kurt Busch Will Contend
Over the past two weeks, Kurt Busch has done a good job of reminding us that he is known for what he can do behind the wheel of a racecar. Since coming back from his suspension, he has posted a 5th place finish at Phoenix and a 3rd place finish at Auto Club Speedway. Last week, it could easily be argued that Busch should have won the race if NASCAR would have thrown the caution on the last lap while the #16 car was wrecking on the front stretch. Instead, Busch got the short end of the deal as Keselowski blew by him with 4 fresh tires. However, I do not think we have heard the last of Busch. Busch won this race a year ago and had a really strong ride in the fall race before an oil line failure ruined his day. There is no doubt that the #41 car has been utterly impressive in the last two weeks and I think that trend may continue again this week. Despite some bad finishes in recent years, Busch gets around Martinsville really well and his experience will help matters again this week.
